NIfty Outlook for 08 July

Nifty after having a thunderous fall yesterday had a bit of consolidation today.PCR is at 0.95

FII today again net sellers of 900 cores so what does it all indicate??

Well as per me now there will be a move upwards till 4237 4272 4313 support is at 4161 4120


Buy Kotak Bank if it breaks and sustains 613 for a target of 625 638 sl 586

Buy RIL above 1864 for a tgt of 1901 and 1950 sl 1824 on all longs

Nifty 5 mins charts

Hi All

Nifty Weekly View as posted yesterday told till 4510 we can hold short and today we are down till 4165.Hope some have njoyed the fall. FII net sold -1482 Cores in cash so now tge sceanrio has changed froom buy at dips to sell at rise.

Attached is Nifty 5 Mins charts what can be observed As picture says Thousand words,We will face stiff resistance at 4250 around 4300 levels

use this levels to short support is 4039

If 4150 is breached and sustained Short heavily.

S&P Technical View

The S&P 500 is similarly headed for a test of support at 880. Breakout would test primary support at 670. Reversal above 950 is now unlikely, but would signal a primary up-trend with a target of 1100. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) warns of selling pressure, but the longer-term (13-Week) indicator is more evenly balanced: a fall below 0.1 would confirm the down-swing, while a rise above 0.3 would indicate a primary advance.

Trading Opputunity in Bharti Airtel

Bharti is stuck in a range Forming Multiple tops and Bottom

Best Stratergy to Trade Buy once rs 830 Breaks with 5 point sl for a tgt of 850,868

Sell if rs 790 with again a sl of 5 points for a tgt of 965 -970

As simple as that

NIfty Weekly View

Hi All,

Nifty is under the formation of HnS Pattern which is bearish in nature.

4470 Should prove good resistance and 4510 levels should be watched very closely Any Weakness observed at this levels will confirm a bearish HnS Pattern with neckline placed at 4170 levels and if that is broken gives a tgt of around 3600 Levels calculated as 4695-4170=525

Neckline is at 4170 So tgt will be 4170-525=3645 in meadium term

100 and 200 EMA will provide good support Weekly Support at 4210 4170 4095 4000


IF Budget is good and market breaks 4510 than we are 4700 and 4800 Levels

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE RAILWAY BUDGET:

Ø Focus on passenger safety, amenities and punctuality

Ø To develop 50 stations at tourist and religious places with internal facilities via PPP

Ø Upgrade CST, Pune, new Delhi, Jaipur, Howrah

Ø Computerised tickets from 5000 post offices

Ø 50 mobile vans to sell train tickets

Ø AC double decker trains for inter city transfers

Ø To give automated tickets vending services at 200 stations

Ø Security plan at 140 stations

Ø Anti-collision devices to be installed on 1780 km lines

Ø To acquire 18,000 wagons in FY10

Ø To form expert panel for rail optic fibre network

Ø Encouragement to private ops for freight terminals

Ø Vast land bank of railway to be used for Industrial Purpose

Ø Done viability study for 4 dedicated freight corridors

Ø New coach factory to be set up with state-of-art-facility to make 500 coaches pa in a JV with the private sector

Ø To setup 1000MW power plant with NTPC

Ø SMS updates for wait-listed passengers

Ø Unreserved ticketing systems to be expanded from 5,000 to 8,000 terminals

Ø Super fast parcel express trains to be started on a pilot basis between Delhi and Chennai and Delhi and Mumbai

Ø Seven nursing colleges to be set up on railway land in places including Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai

Ø ATMs on 200 mid and small sized stations

Ø Railway to provide infotainment services for Rajdhani and Shatabdi Express

Ø 309 stations to be developed as ideal stations

Ø Aim for 1300 km of gauge conversion in FY10 and to spend Rs.1750 crore for this

Ø Proposal for 53 new lines

Ø Aim for 700kms lane doubling in FY10, proposal for doubling 12 lines

Ø Tatkal period reduced from five days to two days

Ø No change in freight tariff

Ø No increase in passenger fares

Ø To expand Calcutta Metro

Ø Hiked Railway Budgetary support by Rs 5,000 crore

Nifty 5 mins charts

Nifty 5 Mins charts are presented

4250-60 with few whipsaws is acting a strong support Most probably will be tested tomorrow.Before that todays low 4288 will also prove to be an important support

Well if 4250 is broken than 4170 is on cards

On upside 4440 will prove to be strong resistance

FII buying since last few days and market is going Light before the D day as happened before Election results

So have an contrian view also when almost whole market players are accepting Nifty to break 4000

Trade with levels

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

By: Serge Hagopian

The global capital-market rally since the March lows was a great trading opportunity, but the rally may have been based on shifting-sentiment (as opposed to structural improvements in the economy). The market was “pricing in” (or hoping for) a quick recovery; even though there was no evidence to suggest clear-&-compelling improvement in GDP, employment, deleveraging consumers, or corporate earnings.

• Yes, the government was able to stop Financial Armageddon; but that’s not the same thing as an improving economy.
• Yes, the US economy is resilient and will recover and prosper in the long-run. But “In the long-run, we’re all dead”, to quote the Nobel Prize winning economist Keynes.

Like the cartoon character that has run off the ledge of the mountain but has not yet noticed the fact that he’s running on thin-air, once equity investors look down it may get ugly.

Neither Borrower, Nor Lender Be

Whether you’re a bull or a bear, we can all agree on the following fundamental-facts:

1. Deleveraging Consumers and Businesses. Everyone (except for the government) is tightening their belt and reducing their consumption. Government alone cannot carry the economic load forever, and if consumers (or businesses) don’t quickly step in we may face a double-dip recession. The $64,000 question is: How does the private sector look (or what’s left of it)?
2. Unemployment Is Above 9% and Climbing. Unemployment is a lagging-indicator, and historically continues to get worse even if the economy picks up. This bit of bad news is not going to get better anytime soon, even if you think the economy is recovering now!
3. Depressed Wages. Many corporations take advantage of high unemployment levels to keep wages down for their existing employees. This makes sense for the firms (the weaker economy justifies lower wage growth) but it has the unintended consequence of reducing the purchasing power of those already employed.
4. Demographic Disaster. If consumers are the engine of the US economy, then Baby-Boomers are the turbo-charger; since they make up such a large demographic. But Baby-Boomers are nearing retirement and even if the economy picks up this year they have a lot of saving to do in order to repair the massive damage to their wealth. In short, deleveraging consumers & businesses, unemployment, depressed wages, and fortifying baby-boomers cast doubt on the bulls believe the economy is going to rebound…at least not by the consumer.
5. Catch 22. Corporations cannot lead a recovery until banks are healthy. But banks cannot repair their balance sheets until they can lend to consumers that are both financially sound (which they are not), and willing to borrow (which they do not). But if things continue as the current rate (or “improve” only slightly) then banks cannot rebuild their balance sheets because for every item a bank recapitalizes, it faces another default somewhere else (foreclosure, credit cards, etc).
6. Government Tapped Out. The resources and credit-worthiness of the US government are almost unlimited. Almost. But there’s only so much the government can borrow before it too must tap-out. Furthermore, if the borrowing becomes too excessive, then the medicine will become worse than the disease. Too much borrow may eventually crowd out private sector borrowing, increase borrowing costs, place a huge burden on taxpayers which reduces future consumption and economic activity, etc.
7. Global Economic Decline. The US cannot export itself out of this problem, because the rest of the world is in the same position (if not a lot worse). The BRICs (or any other emerging market) grow largely due to exports and not organic domestic-growth. The OECD nations are all sickly, one worse than the other. Unfortunately, bad economic news has come “not as spies, but as battalions”.

Fear, Greed, & Beauty-Contests

So where is the DOW headed, as we enter Q2 earnings season? In the end, Q2 earnings will not matter. Nor will the mountain of forecasts dissecting it. What matters is how the market responds to Q2 earnings. As a trader, I agree with the Keynesian “beauty contest” rule: to determine winners of a beauty contest look to and anticipate the judge’s decision and don’t bother deciding who you think will win because you think they’re “pretty”. In short, what the market thinks matters, even if you think the market is “wrong”.

The rally off the March lows was based on shifting-sentiment. Fear of losing out on the rally, greed to jump in and make profits, and “pricing in” (or hoping for) a quick recovery. What the market thinks matters, even if you think the market is “wrong”. But the market is also self-correcting…like the cartoon character that has run off the ledge of the mountain, once it realizes its predicament, it will eventually come crashing down (or, “mark to market”).

OOPS, I DID IT AGAIN…I MADE YOU BELIEVE

The things you can always count on are: death, taxes, and whipsaw. Any trader worth his or her salt can attest to the fact that the market throws some wicked sucker punches, or whipsaws. Prior to a major rally, market participants will become convinced that the sky is falling (think fear). Right at a market top, investors and traders will be told that good times are here to last, things are “really different” this time, if you don’t buy now you’ll miss the opportunity of a life-time (think greed), “green shoots”, etc. The cycle repeats itself, ad infinitum.

5 and 13 EMA crossover in BPCL

5 and 13 EMA crossover in BPCL the previous time it happened we saw a good rally same will be repeated in coming days

Fuel price hike positive for the stock.

Technical Analysis of GAIL

Gail has formed Multiple bottom around 276-77 levels

Now if it crosses 294 we can see 298 302 5 and 13 EMA cross over is also making.

So watch out for this one.