Wednesday, January 21

ECB's 4 QE Scenarios

After last week's stunning action by the SNB, which according to most was done in anticipation of what will be a substantial QE announcement by the ECB as the last thing the Swiss National Bank wants is to be the primary buyer of what may be up to 1 trillion in fresh minted Euros, it seems that the debate whether the ECB will act next week has become moot.
However, despite various media reports over the past 24 hours about risk-sharing and sovereign security exclusion (i.e., that of Greek Treasurys), as well as speculation that despite it being priced in more than 100%, the ECB may yet again delay the actual announcement especially with what watershed Greek elections following just days after the ECB announcement, the question remains just what format will European QE take. Here, courtesy of Credit Suisse - a bank which was pounded in the past 2 days following the record surge in the CHF - is a preview of the 4 most likely ECB scenarios, as well as a glimpse at what may be the worst possible outcome for Europe: QE itself!
From Credit Suisse:

We consider four potential scenarios for ECB sovereign bond purchases depending on 1) the degree of risk sharing and 2) the size t...

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