Commodity Market Risk

[ Tuesday, May 21 | 0 comments ]
CME Gold futures and CME Silver futures had a most volatile move in recent time yesterday.  Precious metals were continued with their fall on monday morning  but staged a miraculous recovery leaving gold with its best gain since June 2012.
Gold which made a low of $1437 make a sharp pullback in evening session and pullback near $1400 odd levels.  CME silver Futures made a 12.5%, retested $ 23 after making a low of $19.7 move in single trading session with volume 82% higher than 100-day average.
So precious metals showing such wild moves,You can’t help but think about risk when you think about trading commodities. Any wrong trade without a strict Stop loss could have wiped you out of market.  I have seen many small traders with capital as low as 50K trade in commodity market and such wild moves wipe them out of market as they just trade on "LUCK", they have no trading system.

The aura of high risk in commodities ..

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Technical Picks:Bajaj Auto,PFC and Lupin

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Bajaj Auto

bajaj autoBajaj Auto has given a triangle breakout and Bulls are trying hard to close stock over 1870 which is 200 DMA. Close above 1870 will change the long term trend of stock and will head towards target of 1930 in short term.

Buy above 1870 Tgt..



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Nifty corrects from resistance zone,FII FnO Analysis

[ Monday, May 20 | 0 comments ]
FII
  • FIIs bought 3947 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 116 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 12307 contracts, so profit booking done by  FII.  Have you take Positional Traders Fear Test
Nifty made a new 52 week high @6229 in morning above our Weekly Trend Deciding level  with a gap up. As per Gap theory, signs were clear Nifty will go for gap filling , hence intra shorts were active below 6221. As discussed in Weekly analysis Nifty has strong resistance in range of 6220-6222with negative divergence..

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Commodity Trading:Gold Silver and Crude Weekly Price Forecast

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As discussed in US Dollar at 3-Year High, Whats next With the strong USD Silver and gold will be under pressure.Silver brokes its 2013 low today morning and Gold is heading towards its 2013 low of 1321, Currently trading at 1346$. Lets discuss the weekly price forecast of gold, silver and crude.


Gold Weekly Chart

goldweekly
As per Weekly charts gold is trading around its 200 WSMA@1445, unable to close above it gold will break its 2013 low of 1321 and head for 1250.

Gold Trend Deciding Level:


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USD INR Weekly Technical Analysis

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As discussed last week USD INR has given a breakout above 53.84 and closed above the breakout level for 1 week. S&P negative outlook and rising current account deficit add more pressure on rupee.  Lets analyze USD INR technical for coming week.

USD INR 4 Hour Chart

usdinrh4
USD INR 4 hour chart has broken out in  chart and is heading towards its swing high of 55.1 . This is what we discussed last week and Rupee made a high of 54.96 before turning back. Holding..

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