Saturday, April 19

How nifty would react after election results

Money and power collide every five years at the intersection of Indian Stock Market and New Delhi, as India votes for its 15 Lok Sabha, So much is at stake: Indian foreign policy, India GDP growth, market friendly reforms could all undergo radical changes if Modiji wins.
The outcome of the election will also impact the stock market.Some forecast a bull market if a NDA wins lead by Modiji, while other predict that a UPA led by Rahul Gandhi  means stocks will decline.
A savvy trader might see an opportunity to put these theories to the test, based upon who they believe will become Prime Minister of the Great Nation India, If this trader bets on the right theory and the right winner, he or she could position himself or herself to make a lot of cash.
Now as we do not have crystal ball to predict, but as a technical analyst I firmly belive past price action gives an idea what can happen in future, let us see how market behaved in past before/after election result so as to understand market behavior and get an inkling what can happen in 2014.

1996

1996 was a Hung Assembly as Both BJP and Congress did not got majority, BJP got 161 and INC got 141. As BJP won highest seat A B Vajpayee took the initiative to form government, but the government lasted for only 13 days and Janata Dal leader Deve Gowda formed a United Front coalition government on June 1. His government lasted 18 months.

1996
Nifty reaction with Swing High and Low is shown in below

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