Saturday, April 26

Stock market movement prior and after Lok Sabha election

In our last post Nifty reaction to Lok Sabha election results we had a discussion on various scenarios which are possible. Lets discuss who can an "Investor" also use the Lok Sabha election event to rejig portfolio.
In an election year, equities usually go up in the run-up to elections, and Market will always give Thumb to clear mandate the trend continues.
Data since 1991 show that equity markets usually go up before general elections. Barring 2004, when they fell 11 per cent in three months prior to the elections, they have risen before all elections since 1991-24 per cent ahead of 1991 polls, 7 per cent in 1996, 6 per cent in 1998, 14 per cent in 1999 and 27 per cent in 2009 as shown in below chart.
3 Month return
The interesting thing is that most of the times the trend
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