Nifty Weekly Technical View 2-6 March

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HDFC has Formed Double Bottom Ready For Bounce?

HDFC has Formed Double Bottom @1200.Positions can be take @1200 For a tgt of 1250-1300 in short term SL of 1180 should be maitained

Gold : 12 reason to short gold

If you’re a self-professed “Goldbug,” feel free to read no further.
Or at least spare me your hate mail. Because no matter what I say
today, I know you’ll cry foul… or something much more colorful.

But for those of you with an open mind - especially after my last
three contrarian predictions proved dead accurate, read on.

Because it’s time to start shorting gold!

You won’t find many, if anyone else, making this case. But as the
first reason of 12 below reveals, that’s precisely why you should give
it more credence.

12 Reasons To Start Shorting Gold

It’s decidedly contrarian. If a contrarian investor is someone who
deliberately decides to go against the prevailing wisdom of other
investors, shorting gold certainly fits the bill. Right now, everyone
else is buying gold, or at least recommending it. If you have any
doubt we’ve reached such fever pitch levels, consider No. 2.


The infomercial factor. The best indicator of a turning point for any
investment, in my experience, is infomercials. If an investment gets
so popular it invades the pre-dawn hours with non-stop but-wait-
there’s-more offers, it’s time to get out. And that’s exactly what’s
happening now. So much so companies like Cash4Gold.com are invading
primetime television. They even splurged for a Super Bowl ad spot. And
they recruited washed-up celebrities Ed McMahon and M.C. Hammer to
boot. In case you forgot, the Hammer filed bankruptcy in 1996. And
Eddie boy almost lost his 7,000 square-foot, $6.5 million Beverly
Hills pad to foreclosure. No offense, if you take investment cues from
these two, you deserve to lose money.


There is always some truth in a rumor. Recent news reports suggested
Germany, the world’s second-largest holder of gold, was selling some
from its vaults to trim its deficit. It turned out to be a rumor. But
you gotta wonder if there’s some truth behind it. After all, high gold
prices would be an easy way to raise cash. In other words, the
scenario is completely plausible. And if Germany’s considering it,
even remotely, so, too, are plenty of other deficit-ridden
governments. It goes without saying that a government dumping supply
on the market will send prices lower, quickly.


The gold-to-oil ratio is out of whack. Historically, an ounce of gold
will buy you about 14 barrels of oil. But with oil around $40 per
barrel, an ounce of gold gets you almost 23 barrels - a whopping 64%
above the historical mean. If you believe in statistics, a reversion
to the mean is imminent!


So is the gold-to-silver ratio. Historically, an ounce of gold will
buy you 31 ounces of silver. But now the ratio stands at 73 - an
unbelievable 134% above the historical mean. Here, too, a reversion to
the mean is imminent. And I’d rather place my bets on a 57% decrease
in the price of gold, than silver more than doubling to make it
happen.


The HGNSI index is too high at 60.9%. For the past 25 years, Hulbert
Financial Digest has tracked the average recommended gold market
exposure among a subset of gold-timing newsletters. It usually fleshes
out around 32.6%. But now it rests at 60.9%, a level it’s only
exceeded 13% of the time. The key - Hulbert found an inverse
correlation exists between his proprietary index and the short-term
market direction of gold. In other words, if the index is high, like
now, gold is headed lower.


Trinkets drive demand, not governments or speculators. Nearly 75% of
gold demand comes from the jewelry market. And if Indian brides balk
at buying above $750 per ounce as the Bombay Bullion Association
reports - India’s gold imports cratered 81% in December - look out
below. And don’t be fooled into thinking investors (governments or
speculators) will pick up the slack. As HSBC reports, rising demand
from investors, particularly from ETFs, only offset half of the 33%
decline in jewelry market demand since 2001.


What makes now “different?” If the global economic crisis keeps
getting worse, as goldbugs like to point out, why hasn’t gold tested
last March’s high of $1,030.80 per ounce? Or blown right by it? After
all, gold is supposed to increase in value as economic conditions
worsen. But it hasn’t lived up to expectations, not one bit. And I
don’t think it ever will. Ultimately, when you factor in the massive
amounts of stimulus being injected into the markets, on a global
level, we’re close to the worst of times… and the peak for gold.


Analysts love it. According to Bloomberg, 16 of 24 analysts surveyed
by the London Bullion Market Association believe gold will reach a
minimum of $1,032 per ounce this year. As we all know, analysts’ track
records are deplorable. Instead of just ignoring them, why not bet
against them? The odds are definitely in our favor.


Hedge fund buying dried up. Institutional speculators (hedge funds)
played a large part in gold’s run-up. But 920 of them went Kaplooey
last year, according to Hedge Fund Research, Inc. Not to mention,
hundreds of others hemorrhaged capital as investors demanded their
money back, while those left standing ratcheted down borrowing to
close to nothing, according to Rasini & C., a London-based investment
adviser. In the end, gold prices will eventually reflect the absence
of these former heavyweights.


Gold is schizophrenic and the wrong personality is in control.
Multiple motivations exist to buy gold including the desire for a safe
haven, currency, adornment, raw material, or inflation hedge. But much
like Treasuries, the bulk of buyers come from the safe haven camp
today. And once the economy shows any signs of perking up, we can
expect these same investors to flee for more risky assets. And don’t
be so quick to rule out a second half recovery…


The Fed, the President, history and the Baltic Dry Index concur - the
economy’s on the mend. Despite dismal data, both the Fed and President
Obama point to the current recession ending by the second half of
2009. Moreover, the average recession only lasts 14.4 months. So even
if this one is longer than usual, we’re still near the tail end of it.
A fact underscored by the recent 61.4% rally in the Baltic Dry Index
from its early December low. As I wrote in November 2008, the index is
the first pure indicator of an uptick in global activity. And once the
economy gets back into gear, the Fed will act quickly to reign in the
money supply and curb inflation.
Cleary the gold rush is on. But that’s all the more reason to move in
the opposite direction, against the herd. I realize this might be the
most unpopular recommendation right now, but that means it could also
be the most profitable.

And before you brandish me a fool for recommending shorting Treasuries
and gold in the span of two months, here’s the intersection. The
driving force behind both assets in recent months has been safe haven
buying. And it will remain the dominant variable in determining price
in the months ahead. So when investors go back on the attack for more
risky assets, prices for both assets will fall.

It’s already happening for Treasuries. And I’m convinced gold is next.

Good (and contrarian) investing,

by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club

Weekly NIfty Levels and Stock Trading Ideas

HI All

First of all i would thanks AR for Slum dog Millionaire Fame and the first India to win 2 oscars

Now on markets Nifty is week Below 2660 as shown in charts below and in this exipry week i see nifty in the range from 2720-2860.All asin and Europe are in green on hope that Citi will get capital aid.
Nifty Levels for tomorrow 2700 lies the support Resistance at 2755 -2780-2825

Stocks specific

Poster Boy Reliance support at 1235 and 1217 and resistance at 1277 and 1300

Rel capital Rel infra all can see short covering of 5-7%

SBN position can be taken with a sl of 980 at 1033 -1023 with a tgt of 1050 1066 and 1100

United Spirits positions can be taken at 550 whereas resistnce exsits at 586 and 605

Option call we have taken 2 lots of 2800 CE at 12 on friday and now will trade only in march series

The Dow's long tail and strong volume Friday indicate buying support. Expect a test of the new resistance level at 7500. Respect would confirm the bear trend, while penetration of 7500 would warn of a possible bear trap.

NIfty Weekly Technical View Feb 24-27

Click on the Image to Enlarge

2720 was held on closing basis Now expiry should happen in the range 2750-2860.

Dow has also shown a Good Buying on Volumes which can see back to 7500 Levels

2 year chart of the Euro/Dollar

A 2 year chart of the Euro/Dollar is shown on Right Side. Notice how it deteriorated since last August. This morning, it was falling and is now $3 away from its recent low. A break below the $123.27 low would be have a very bad prognosis for Europe, its banking system, and its economy.

NIfty Breaking Trainngle Formation and Channel is Broken

Nifty has broken out of ascending Triangle Range Now Support comes at 2733 2696 so get ready for another Volatile session tomorrow

SCO is at 10 so keep booking ur shorts and wait for confirmation to buy Longs


If 2720 Breaks Fall is accelerated

2600 Puts up 300% more to come
RIL has support at 1248 1228 and 1200 below that 1175 and than new low is waiting

GOLD - THE SHINE GETS BRIGHTER

The markets are down, which is not so good. Oil prices are down which is good. The rupee vis-s-vis the US dollar is better which is also good. Inflation is down, which is excellent. Economic growth is down, which cannot be helped. But gold is scaling new highs everyday, now that is a real shocker!

Gold futures hit a new high of Rs 15,050 per 10 gram in early deals today, taking cues from the firm trend in other Asian markets, where it shot up by 1.55% to $956.20 an ounce, which is the highest in seven months. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for August-month contract shot up by 2.31 per cent to Rs 15,050 per 10 gram. The contract clocked business turnover of five lots.

The interim Budget might have been a damp squib and pulled down the other indices but for gold, there seems to be no stopping. So why is everyone around the world buying gold? Indians buying gold is routine but all over the world people buying like there is no tomorrow is new. World recession and uncertainty are the two main reasons. After the collapse of some of the biggest banks in the world, people just do not trust even the banks. The feeling is that they need to park funds in something which would not just vanish into thin air. Holding cash is risky as currency value also depreciates. Realty was usually the other avenue where people parked their funds but today, even that is not an option. And there is also no certainty about when the recession gripping the world would come to an end. More and more people, are thus shifting to gold.

With so much money also being printed in USA, there is fear that with the supply of money increasing, the dollar would only depreciate further. Currencies around the world are pegged against the dollar and hence this fear psychosis is pushing people to buy more gold. With the rupee depreciating against the dollar, there is large scale buying of gold because the rupee value of gold is said to be higher against the dollar. There is also fear that US government's rescue plan may not revive the economy.

Apart from investors flocking to buy gold, the marriage season is on in the largest market of gold in the world, India. Major buying is said to be now coming from jewellery fabricators to meet the marriage season demand pushed up the gold prices. Also given the uncertainty in all the markets, people do not know where things will be in 2-3 years from now. So many parents are also said to be stocking up on gold as the best saving for their children’s future.

Protecting the value of their money is the single most priority and that is something which only gold seems to offer. This can be gauged from the fact that the world's top five gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) have increased their gold reserves by 108 tonne in the past three months. The total holding of these five five ETFs has gone up to 1,080 tonne from 972 tonne.

Apart from coins, biscuits and jewellery, the investors are exploring the option of ETFs. A gold ETF is a financial instrument like a mutual fund whose value depends on the price of gold. In most cases, the price of one unit of a gold ETF reflects the price of approximately 1 gram of gold. As the price of gold rises, that of the ETF is also expected to rise equally. Most gold ETFs are traded on the National Stock Exchange, so one requires a broker who is its member. There are five gold ETFs in the market at present — Gold BeEs, Kotak Gold, Quantum Gold, Reliance Gold and UTI Gold ETF.

Feb 2008 saw a rush of people to open demat accounts and in Feb 2009, people are exploring the option with their broker to buy ETFs, for their share of gold, demat accounts seem to have been put in deep freeze.

Compiled from SP Tulsian.com

Intresting PPT on whats happening next in Feb

Download

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A Must Read For all Traders

Nifty 50 Weekly Outlook

As visible from the Data

NSE 5-Day Simple Moving Average 2924
NSE 21-Day Simple Moving Average 2820
NSE 5-Day EMA 2911
NSE 13-Day EMA 2870
NSE 21-Day EMA 2860



SO as per the analysis 2860 and 2870 will provide support and if that is broken than 2820 and 2790

Get ready for a bear Hug

GOLD and CRUDE Charts

West Texas Crude is testing the band of support between $33 and $35/barrel. A close below $35 or intra-day break below $33 would warn of a down-swing to test the 2003 low of $20. The target is calculated as 35 - (50 - 35).

Spot gold broke through resistance at $930, indicating another test of $1000. Retracement that respects the new support level would strengthen the signal. Reversal below the recent low at $890 is less likely, but would warn of another test of $700. In the longer term, breakout above $1000 would offer a target of $1200; calculated as 900 + ( 1000 - 700 ).

Reliance Industries Technical Picture

Reliance Bears are again getting an upperhand Entering in its resistance zone of 1400-1425 today also unable to cross

MACD and Bollinger Band are in upper end of range

Stocks should show a Breather and still in a range of 1240-1425 either one should break on lower side

Can be shorted with 1425 as Sl and long can be intiated only above 1430

Indication from Twigg's Money Flow Indicator

The Sensex continues to test resistance at 9500, influenced by positive sentiment in the US. Breakout would offer a target of 10500, while respect would test primary support at 8500. Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) reversal above zero would signal buying pressure. In the long term, the primary trend is down and reversal below 8500 would offer a target of the 2005 low of 6000; calculated as 8500 - ( 11000 - 8500 ).

Today we closed above 9500 but if it can sustain that than only 10500 else retest of 9k and if that breaks 8.5K

Nifty 50 Outlook and Stock Trading Ideas

HI All

Nifty is poised to open gap up tommorow BUt levels to be watched are 2889 and 2905 on closing basis

VIX index has broken out of range and is above 50 which is danger sign for bulls

TRIN and SCO widget have been added

SCO if above 98 is definatley a short and near 0 is a Long

Will write a details explanation on SCO and TRIN indcator

Members are not getting SMS on time so i will be posting Calls on SMS channel and simultaneously posting in Chat BOX in Blog so keep visiting the Blog in market hours if you are not getting SMS on time

Stock Specific

1.Relaince above 1365 cam see 1390 where it will face resistance above that 1425

2.SBIN Looks week on chart and raaly should be used to exit 1147 and 1192 can be reached But should be used to exit

3.JSW STEEL buy at 210 tgt 224 sl 200

4.Infosys above 1330 sl 1300 tgt 1368

5. Buying is advised in BOB if it crosses 250

6. Sell Punj Lolyd if it breaks 84 with a sl of 87 for a tgt of 77 and 73

We have taken positions in 2600 and 2700 PE keep a sl of 2909 on closing basis.



Happy Trading to all

Bramesh
9985711341

Sensex nad NIfty Outlook for 2009

The Nifty (Sensex) is in the process of completion of its correction from the 6200 (21000) levels. It seems currently to be in a
contracting triangle formation (lower tops & higher bottoms), the chances of which favour a downside breakdown with target marginally
south of 2000 (7000). This move should happen by April 2009.
Broader moves occur in a 5 wave sequence marked 1-2-3-4-5 with 2 correcting 1 and 4 correcting 3. Corrections happen in a 3 wave
sequence marked as A-B-C.
We presume we are currently in wave 4 of C of the bigger wave 4. The bigger wave 4 is the correction of wave 3 from 2003-2008 which
created a high of 6200 (21000). This will comprise of the A-B-C sequence . Wave A and B have already been completed (refer chart ) .C
will comprise of 5 waves of which 1-2-3 are complete, 4th is in progress and 5th to follow. Wave 5 is likely to take the Nifty (Sensex)
down to around 2000 (7000) levels. This five wave sequence would complete the correction A-B-C (as shown in chart) .

This presumption will be proven wrong if at any time now the Nifty (Sensex) breaches 3150 (10470) levels on the upside . A trend
reversal would occur if the Nifty (Sensex) were to move above 3150 (10470). The downside move in this case would be considered
complete at the OCT low of 2250 (7700).

The move to follow this downside will be a Five wave upmove. In the upmove we would expect the Nifty (Sensex) to reverse 50% -
62% of the entire fall from 6200 (21000) to 2200 (7700) (or a new low if created by April). By either calculation a minimum move to
around 4500 (15000) levels look possible. Timewise this should be possible in one year. This would make equity investments very
worthwhile.

The more aggressive could initiate protected shorts now to take advantage of the near 20% fall that we expect. They could go long at
lower levels.
Longer term investors could make staggered investments from current levels as the mid term market move is likely to provide decent
returns to all investing hereon.
Broadly despite our near term bearish outlook, we remain fairly optimistic on the prospective returns from equity for the year.

Compiled from a Brokerage Report

Nifty 09-13 feb 2008 Weekly Outlook

Weekly charts are showing Inverted H&S, Engulfing weekly candle
It shows an up move if we are able to close above 2900.
Weekly Support 2720-2660, Weekly Resistance 2950-3040-3100
Nifty is strong and week above 2810

How to trade Gap Up's

Gap Trading is a bit controversial since everyone has a view about how to trade what kind of gaps. Here is a article which seemed to explain in detail about one of the ways to trade Gaps.

The framework of the 'rule' has two phases:

1. The market generally will close at least 50% of an open-gap (i.e. an open that gaps above the previous close) in the first 60-minutes; and
2. If the market does not do this, we can expect a strong day in the direction of the gap.

The are a number of filters that I use:

* The setup does not work on every market. It works best in the S&P and 30-Year Bonds. I have not tried it on the 10-Year Notes and T-Bills. It does not work on Gold, and the Currencies.
* The open-gap must be at least mean +1 ATR of the current structure. If you are unfamiliar with Barros Swings, use a 40-day ATR.
* If at the end of 60-minutes, the market has not closed at least 50% of the open-gap but is trading near extreme closest to the 50%, I would wait another 30-minutes.

The tactics I use with the open-gap are many, especially when combined with some other tools:

* Market Delta Volume indications
* Market Profile ideas: open relationship with the previous day's value area; the type of open; where we are trading relative to the open-range of 5, 30 and 60-minutes intervals.
* Larger time frame context: for example prior to the open-gap, have the market ranges been compressing (this makes a trend day more likely) or they have been experiencing above average range days (this makes a rotational day likely and therefore 'fading' is likely to succeed).

What is fading? This brings me to the two general strategies.

The first and most common is to fade the open-gap and the second is to 'go-with' with the open-gap looking for a trend day. By 'fade' I mean take a contra open-gap trade; by 'go-with' I mean take a position in the direction of the gap.

If I am fading a gap, I will usually take a position in the second 5-minutes. As a rule with an open gap, the market will spend the first 5 minutes moving in the direction of the gap. 'Five minutes' is not a fast and hard time but rather an indication of some time spent. Here Market Delta volume and Open-Range ideas are very useful.

Here's an example for a 'fade' entry. Let's say that:

* The context would favour a rotational day. And,
* The market gaps up and nearing the end of the first 5-minutes, we see Market Delta Volume signifying at least a potential short-term top.
* The market then closes below the low of first 5-minutes bar.

In this situation, generally, I'll wait for a rotation back up to sell.As far as exit strategies for 'the fade' are concerned, here are some ideas:

* Stop: One place for the stop would be above the highs of the day plus filter
* Profit Target (core profit contract): a tick or two above the closing of the gap (if day-trading).

For trend days, if I were day trading, for core profit exits, I'd use a trailing stop and look to exit at 4:00 am EST - since a trend day usually closes in the extreme 25% of its range. Thus in an up day that has a range of 32 points, I'd expect the close to close within 8 points of the high.

Why the Dow is holding at 8,000

TO MOST casual observers, the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has bounced back every time it dipped below 8,000 points (see attachment) over the past few months - even when there is bad news - suggests that the 8,000 mark is where the 'support' or the magical 'market bottom' lies. This means that as soon as the index nears 8,000 on the downside, chartists and traders will start calling a 'buy' on the market.

Closer examination, however, reveals that the bounces around the 8,000 mark are simply a function of the way the index is constructed. Because the Dow is price-weighted, it is also inherently flawed.

In Thoughts from the Frontline weekly newsletter dated Jan 23, writer John Mauldin correctly points out that the divisor for the DJIA is 7.964782, which means that for every dollar an index stock falls, the DJIA falls 7.964782 points, regardless of the stock's capitalisation.

As a result, if the stock of Microsoft, with a price of US$17 and a market cap of US$156 billion, was to crash to zero, the DJIA would only lose 135 points (17x7.964782). But if the same was to happen to IBM, with a smaller market cap of US$124 billion but a higher share price of US$92, it would cost the index to lose a whopping 700 points.

Now consider the four financial stocks currently in the DJIA - Citigroup (US$3.90), Bank of America (US$6.78) Amex (US$16.70) and JPMorgan (US$25.43) - using last Thursday's prices.

If all four stocks were to crash to zero, the DJIA would only lose 300 plus points, not that huge a loss in the context of the market, yet imagine the repercussions on the US and global economies if these four institutions collapsed totally.

Most of the news on Wall Street these days centres on the crippled financial and auto sectors. But because the share prices of these companies are now so low, these stocks do not affect the DJIA by much (General Motors' shares, for example, are now just above US$3).

In other words, because the index stocks most affected by bad news are already battered to rock-bottom levels, the DJIA doesn't seem to fall much when bad news is released, thus giving the mistaken impression of resilience to adverse news and of strong support around 8,000 points.

By right, these financial and auto stocks should have been removed from the index, given that it has been past practice to replace stocks whose prices drop below US$10.

For some reason, the DJIA's guardians have been reluctant to do the same now, possibly because of the political fallout that might ensue - imagine the repercussions of removing pillars like Citigroup or General Motors.

This then leads to the inevitable conclusions: the DJIA is not comparable over time; the only reason the DJIA appears well-supported around 8,000 is because the collapsed financial and auto components have not been replaced as they should have been; and that movements in large-price stocks are magnified because the index is heavily skewed in favour of these counters.

If the index was to be correctly re-balanced by removing the battered financials and autos and replacing them with stocks with prices above US$10, you'd have to wonder whether the 8,000 mark would hold as well as it has.

You'd also have to dismiss arguments that it is safe to buy since the index is at its lowest level in many years because historical comparisons are invalid - unless, of course, the same re-balancings that were done in the past are performed now.

Nifty 50 short to medium term view

Nifty is forming a Ascending triangle
Now needs to be which side we will break out above 2854
we can touch 2902 and 2930 and downside below
we will find support at 2720 and 2702 and 2665

Below that 2500 and we will break the trading range.Lets
see whats is in store for us Time will only tell

Dow Jones Industrial Average short to medium term view

The Dow respected resistance at 8400, signaling selling pressure, and is now testing support at 7900/8000. Declining volume indicates that support is weakening. Failure would signal another test of the November low of 7500, while respect of support would again test 8400. In the long term, breakout below 7500 would offer a target of 6000; calculated as 7500 - ( 9000 - 7500 ). Confirmed if the 2002 low of 7300 is penetrated.

Nifty 50 Turning Bearish

Hi all

Was very Busy yesterday not able to post weekly calls

Hope u all are happy with sms service.

Nifty Bullish set up which was formed yesterday all went in wind as today due to week global cues Nifty went down almost 3%.Now as from my previous chart Nifty is making lower Highs and is probably will make lower lows.

Reliance despite of good news today did not run up.Relance now has support at 1230 (20EMA)


Dow zones has broken an important support of 8000 ans as i write it is down almost 80 points.S&P Index is very near to its crucial level of 800

So i am negative in market but lets see if market is able to break tge lower range of 2670.

Trading Ideas

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION SELL IF BREAKS 155 147 and 140 SL 159
TATA STEEL SELL BELOW 175 TGt 165 and 155


Regards,

Bramesh
09985711341

How Wall Street Keeps Dooming Itself

Virtually everybody who butters their own bread is outraged that Wall Street, which is becoming a de facto government agency thanks to billions in bailout money, found $18.4 billion in bonuses for bankers who nearly wrecked the world's financial system in 2008. President Obama's criticism – "shameful" – is mild compared to what many of us think.

The bankers are bellyaching about a 44 percent decline in bonuses from 2007 levels. That's like complaining about being served a 40-ounce porterhouse instead of a 70-ounce one.

Here's a bit more perspective: Charles Payne, CEO of the research firm Wall Street Strategies, points out that in 1985, Wall Street bonuses totalled $1.9 billion. The average recipient got $13,970. Since 1985, inflation has run 97 percent in total, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means that something worth $1 in 1985 would be worth $1.97 today. So follow the math:

Wall Street bonus pool in 1985: $1.9 billion

Value in 2008, if indexed for inflation: $3.75 billion

Actual 2008 bonus pool: $18.4 billion

Amount by which bonus pool exceeded inflation: 490 percent

Average Wall Street bonus, 1985: $13,970

Value in 2008, if indexed for inflation: $27,580

Actual average bonus, 2008: $112,000

Amount by which average bonus exceeded inflation: 406 percent

So pay for top Wall Streeters has risen 4 to 5 times as much as the rate of inflation since 1985. Of course those bankers are worth it, because of all the great things they've done for America during that time, like engineer the Long-Term Capital Management meltdown in 1998, the tech bubble that burst in 2001, the housing bubble that's still bursting, a credit freeze that's producing hypothermia at hundreds of real companies that actually make stuff, and the near collapse of the financial markets.

If there's a crowning absurdity, it's that Wall Street mustered any bonuses at all in a year when the industry lost $34 billion. Does anybody else in America get a bonus when their company tanks? "Rewarding cataclysmic failure like this has to be what led to the fall of the Roman Empire," Payne wrote in a recent note to clients.

It's worth pointing out that not all Wall Street firms are as wayward as big offenders like Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), AIG (AIG), and Bank of America (BAC). Many made money in 2008, and any firm that isn't asking for taxpayer handouts should be allowed to pay its people whatever it wants.

But the bonus brouhaha reveals so many disconnects in the financial industry that it could end up being a pivotal moment in the dismantling of the old Wall Street. Derivatives and "funding facilities" are hard for most people to understand. But gimme gimme gimme is a corruption we all understand. If the politicians didn't have a clear rallying cry for going after Wall Street before, they sure do now.