Wednesday, February 29

FII FnO Data Analysis for 01 march Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 29-Feb-12.


1. FII sold  6170  Contracts of NF worth 157  cores OI also increasing  by 10790 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was down by 2  points and OI has increased by 10790  contracts means shorts  were added into the system.Why I say because NF sold off from highs of morning and unable to close above 5400
3. Nifty has for third day closed ...

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Technical Analysis:Bata India,ICICI Bank and Jindal Saw

When a position is getting ready to stop you out at a loss, do you find yourself bargaining with the name? Do you find your frustration level rising? Do you justify the reason for the move against you, and give it a little more room, only to get stopped out at a bigger loss? Or even worse, perhaps you now find yourself sitting on a double-digit loss, and are frozen with what to do with this now sinking ship? And perhaps the biggest fear for a trader is closing out a position only to see it run back in their favor moments later. Trust me when I say that every trader, seasoned or not, has these moments when stop levels are hit and they hesitate with pulling the trigger

Bata India


Bata India is facing supply near its all time high of 717-729. If Nifty goes past 5400 chances are there for bata india to make a fresh all time high.
Head and Shoulder pattern will also get active with a break of trendline at 730. (I generally do not rely this pattern)


Buy above 717 Tgt...

 

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Tuesday, February 28

FII FnO Data Analysis for 29 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 28-Feb-12.


Yesterday we had a fall of 148 points today a rise of 102 points. We already had discussed possibility of rally today and it got materialized. Hope Traders were able to catch the right directions and make money. Lets move whats in store for tomorrow.
Tomorrow we have the All important GDP numbers,which will be interesting to look for as analyst are factoring slowest GDP growth in past 2 years. Any surprise will lead to continuation of Bounce which started today.

1. FII bought 35024  Contracts of NF worth 940  cores OI also increasing  by 22570 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was up by 102  points and OI has increased by 22570  contracts means longs were added into the system.Yesterday we analyses they have moved out of shorts.
3. Nifty has for second day closed below...

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Technical Analysis:HUL,SBI and Tata Motors

Not having a plan. Get a plan, who cares if it is bad, start with something. You can build off of it and refine it. You have to be willing to spend the time to make the plan yours. You do not start anything without some level of planning. Trading is hard; your brain spends a lot of time in fast forward, affecting your memory. You can slow it down by having a plan and increase your brains ability to remember. A plan makes it possible to improve. Most importantly, a plan gives you a chance at removing emotion.
Forgetting why you are trading. The purpose of trading is to make money. Every action should bend to that goal. That does not mean every trade makes money. It means every trade gets to closer. If you are looking for comfort, get a teddy bear. If you are looking to be right, play trivial pursuit. If you want excitement, drive fast.
Letting it go. It is really important to separate what happened from how you felt. The more distance between the two the less time it takes to learn from that situation. Admitting you made a mistake or are wrong are necessary for letting it go. Unlike life, you get no credit for admitting you are wrong, it is just a part of trading. Neither matter unless you take action.



Hindustan Unilever

Trendline Support at 376-77 range.

Buy above 378 Tgt...



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Monday, February 27

FII FnO Data Analysis for 28 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 27-Feb-12.


Today was the day many bears might have rejoiced if they are still holding the shorts ;) It was a relentless fall in recent times with no pullback coming,Another thing to note is correction always come point to point which basically traps a intraday trader and he need to square off his position if he do not have a holding power.

1. FII sold   29565  Contracts of NF worth 763.03  cores OI also decreasing  by 24841 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was down by 148  points (Biggest fall in past 6 months) and OI has decreased by 28421  contracts means profit booking in shorts. We had already pointed out in 24 Feb analysis that FII has started shorting the index. But today they has booked profits and have not entered in fresh shorts.
3. Correction are always fast and furious which can be acknowledged from the fact that ...


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Technical Analysis:Mphasis,ICICI bank,Infosys and Sesa Goa

Feelings naturally appear during trading. The feelings we don’t like seem to have roots deep in our unresolved issues. Somehow they get stuck and do not finish passing through, and can cloud the judgment and interfere with trading. The feelings we do like seem to pass through quickly without much trace.
I suggest getting to know your feelings, by experiencing them, expressing them, letting them pass through and finding out they are pretty much all good ones.
Jet engines work best when they are open at both ends.

ICICI Bank


ICICI Bank has been declining for past 3 days trading in a downward channel,Trendline support lies at 901

Sell below 917 Tgt...

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Sunday, February 26

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 27 Feb

The much anticipated downward correction materialized during the week gone by.Nifty corrected after 7 weeks of breath taking rally which was surprise for most of market participants.
Nifty is approaching monthly closing in next 3 days which will be keenly watch.

Nifty Hourly Chart

On Hourly chart Nifty was able to fill 2 gaps as shown in above charts still 4 more gaps needs to be filled.

1 Gap :4641-4676

2 Gap:4744-4772

3 Gap:4879-4905


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Saturday, February 25

What a Trader Really Needs to Be Successful

By Robert Prechter, Jr. President and Founder of Elliott Wave International
When I first began trading, I did what many others who start out in the markets do: I developed a list of trading rules. I created the list piecemeal, with each new rule added, usually, following the conclusion of an unsuccessful trade. I continually asked myself what I would do differently next time to make sure that this mistake would not recur. Approximately six months after I completed my carved-in-stone list of 16 trading rules, I balled up the paper and threw it into the trash.
What was the problem? My error was in taking aim at the last trade each time, as if the next trading situation would present a similar problem.
Here's an example. One of the most popular trading maxims is, "You can't go broke taking a profit." (The brokers invented that one, of course, which is one reason new traders always hear it!) When you have entered a trade at a good price, watched it go your way for a while, then watched it go against you and turn into a loss, the maxim sounds like a pronouncement of divine wisdom. But, what you are really saying is, "I should have sold when I had a small profit."
Now, let's see what happens next. You....

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Thursday, February 23

FII FnO Data Analysis for Feb Expiry

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 22-Feb-12.





Correction are always fast and furious,and if you are not prepared give you no time to react before you see the screen what has happened.

1. FII sold   12751   Contracts of NF worth 346.98  cores OI also increasing  by whopping  142427 contracts. This is huge increase in OI near expiry.

2. As Nifty Futures was down by 104  points and OI has increased by 142427  contracts means huge shorts  were added by FII on net to net basis.This is the first indication we are getting that FII are entering shorts in system now. Basically it can be looked in 2 ways Booking profits in existing Longs they were helding Secondly Shorting in Big qty. We will get more clarity in coming sessions. 

3. The much awaited ....

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Wednesday, February 22

Reader Request: ZEE Limited,Biocon and Bajaj Auto

We can not control:
  • Whip saws when the trend reverses on us.

  • Gaps in opening prices both up and down.

  • Headline risk.

  • Natural disasters.

  • Whether a trend continues or reverses the moment we open a position.

  • Whether any individual trade wins or loses.

  • How many winning or losing trades we have in a row.


ZEE Limited




ZEE is facing resistance at its upper trendline @ 140.4. Channel Support comes at 132

Sell below 131 Tgt...



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Tuesday, February 21

FII FnO Data Analysis for 22 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 21-Feb-12.


1. FII sold   2833   Contracts of NF worth 55.41  cores OI also increasing  by 41487 contracts. The OI for FII is inclusive of all months, so it rules out rollover.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 32  points and OI has increased by 41487  contracts means longs were added by FII on net to net basis.

3. Today Nifty Future closed at 7 month high 5622 backed by liquidity by Central Banks around the world. Make money till musics lasts.

4. Nifty Feb  OI has decreased   by massive 57  lakh .Total OI stands at 1.64 cores  contracts.Rollover have started and 70  Lakh got rollovered to March series implying whole 57  Lakh got rollovered with fresh 13 lakh addition. Will Bullishness be carried over to March Series ?
5. As 57 Lakhs got rollovered today when Nifty March Future  made a low of  5614 and High of 5674 implying 5614 be an important support levels for March Series.
7.Total F&O turnover was...

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Readers Request:IDFC and Bharti Airtel Technical Analysis

  • Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.
  • To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, but also that we understand the market’s technicals. When we do, then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.
  • Respect “outside reversals” after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even more “weekly” and “monthly,” reversals.
  • Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.


IDFC



IDFC is Trading in a channel and broke its short term resistance on Upside. Last Friday made a Doji pattern with big volumes signalling a distribution pattern.

Sell below  145 Tgt...



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Monday, February 20

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Feb Expiry Week 2012

The Glorious Bull run continues in Indian markets with Nifty completing 1000 points in matter of 40 trading sessions. So what all we lost last year have been recovered in 44 days only in 2012.  Central Bank (ECB,FEd and BOJ) who have flushed the market with liquidity subsequently Bull  rally has gripped the stock market and driven the averages up in an almost straight line since mid January.
So will the Stock Market keep going up defying the law of gravity, Let try to analyze it using both fundamental and technical view.
Macro View:
The fundamentals remain a matter of concern.
  • Q3 results have shown continued downward pressure on margins of India Inc.
  • The fiscal deficit will end up much higher duw to rising crude oil prices and Food for Security act by GOI
  • Interest rates remain high.
  • Inflation has been low due to high base effect and will rise again from next 2 month onwards when we face the ground reality.
  • A Greek sovereign default hasn’t been ruled out.
  •  War with Iran can let the Crude Oil spiking higher. Yesterday Iran has stopped giving oil to EU countries and Oil is trading at 6 months high.

Technical Perceptive

Nifty Hourly Chart




On Hourly charts Nifty  gave a breakout after....

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Sunday, February 19

FII FnO Data Analysis for 21 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 17-Feb-12.



1. FII bought   28412   Contracts of NF worth 800.41  cores OI also increasing  by 7890 contracts. The OI for FII is inclusive of all months, so it rules out rollover.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 51  points and OI has increased by 7890 contracts means longs were added by FII,Our Thursday Analysis of shorting the index at higher level proved right as Today they bought 28412 contracts but OI rose by only 7890 contracts.

3. Nifty has been rising only on gaps with momentum money chasing prices. If you are not on long side please do not short this market looking at daily rise of the market. Nifty is showing irrational exuberance with FII buying at Equities worth 4.44 Billion Dollars in just 44 days.

4. Nifty OI has decreased ....

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Saturday, February 18

Trading for a Living--How to make money trading stocks/Commodities

How to make money trading stocks/Commodities

(a) Identify the reason for the trade

(b) A Stop Loss

(c) A profit target or trailing stop mechanism

(d) The point at which you accept that the trade is not working even if the stop did not hit.

(e) Number of shares / contracts that you will hold. Keep in mind that your loss on a single trade should not be more than x% of your capital (you decide the x%)

(f) maintain a trading journal in which you write every evening, without fail.

As a sportsman(So too as a trader), you've got to realize that it's not the end of the world if you lose one game or more..You should get down to basics and play every ...


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Thursday, February 16

FII FnO Data Analysis for 17 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 16-Feb-12.


1. FII sold  11985  Contracts of NF worth 329.57 cores OI also increasing  by 11051 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 15  points and OI has decreased by 11051 contracts means marginal shorts were added by FII  on higher levels.

3. After a huge rally was 112 points yesterday today was a day of consolidation with a negative bias. Bears were able to dominate bulls during the morning session and Bulls were able to  close index above 5500. 
4. Noises for .....

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Technical Analysis:RIL,Infy and Larsen

Infosys Limited


Infy is trading at its supply zone of 2891-94. Crossing above this level can take stock to sub 3000 levels Failing to cross will take back to 2700-800 range.

Sell below 2887 Tgt...


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Wednesday, February 15

FII FnO Data Analysis for 16 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 15-Feb-12.

1. FII bought  27955 Contracts of NF worth 770.19 cores OI also increased  by 37,339 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 112  points and OI has increased by 37,339 contracts means longs were added by FII.

3. Today was day of Breakout after 7 days of consolidation as we have been pointing out that 5434 is important resistance,Nifty tried its level best to break for 7 days but at last a Gap Up only made it possible to break the Laxman Rekha.
4. Liquidity flown by...

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FII FnO Data Analysis for 15 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 14-Feb-12.



1. FII bought  7095 Contracts of NF worth 190.93 cores OI also decreased  by 5137 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 20  points and OI has decreased by 5137 contracts means profit booking was done by FII.

3. What Nifty has done from past 7 days. It has been consolidating in a tight range of 100 points...

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Tuesday, February 14

Technical Analysis:Axis bank,Future Capital and Bata India

A man ought not to be led into trading by tokens. He should wait until the tape tells him that the time is ripe. As a matter of fact, millions upon millions of dollars have been lost by men who bought stocks because they looked cheap or sold them because they looked dear. The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to profit by either a rise or a fall in the price of whatever he may be speculating in. Therefore the thing to determine is the speculative line of least resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should wait for is the moment when that line defines itself, because that is his signal to get busy. ——-REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR


Axis Bank


Axis Bank has formed an INSIDE DAY pattern Big move can be accepted.Weakness can be any accepted only on close below 1098.

Sell below 1107 Tgt...


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Monday, February 13

FII FnO Data Analysis for 14 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 13-Feb-12.


1. FII bought  1736 Contracts of NF worth 38.48 cores OI also decreased  by 17784 contracts. On Friday FII sold 51,102 contracts worth 1400 Cores.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 20  points and OI has decreased by 17785 contracts means profit booking was done by FII. Still No shorting signal
3. What Nifty has done from past 6 days. It has been ...

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Sunday, February 12

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Begining 13Feb

Nifty was up by 0.8% last week. Tepid Industrial Productivity (IIP) number at 1.8% in December as compared to November was a Shocker along with a revised GDP outlook of 6.9% as against 8.4% in the previous year were the reasons of rally spoilers for the last week.India's trade deficit too has soared to uncomfortable levels of US$ 14.7 bn.
On International Front Greece drama was and will be in Limelight for the following week,Eurozone dismisses Greek budget deal and  holding back the Bailout fund setting 15 Feb as the dealing to Greece to come up with a solid plan worth implementing else Leave EURO zone.
S&P Downgrades 34 Of 37 Italian Banks on Friday.
Lets jump into technical of Nifty.
Last Week we discussed that 5435-50 range being the supply zone with various technical reason (Link to the Post)
Nifty did obliged to us and made a high of 5428 for the last week and started correcting from 5428.
Now Million Dollar question is it a trend reversal or just a correction? Lets try to find answer about it.

Nifty Hourly Chart


On Hourly charts Nifty is consolidating in the range of 5320-5428 with 50 Hourly moving average providing a good support.50 SMA Hourly stands at 5352 levels.

On Hourly charts shown above i have pointed all the 4 Gaps which have been left unfulfilled from the rise of 4640-428 on Nifty Spot. For a healthy rising markets such gaps needs to be filled as it can be considered as VOID...
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Saturday, February 11

Self-Control and Discipline in Trading

Nifty did a one way ride for Jan and Feb 2 weeks. One of the most spectacualr rally. These kinds of rallies have been coming and will be coming for next many many years. But important thing is were you part of this rally,If yes were you on right side ie. Long side.
Most of traders missed the rally or were shorting the whole rally Very few traders were able to milk this rally. What diffrent they have done.

They had Self Control and Discipline over them.

Cultivating discipline and self-control is vital for consistent and profitable trading. You implement proven trading strategies, over and over, so that across a series of trades, the strategies work enough to produce an overall profit. It’s like making shot after shot on the basketball court so as to accumulate a winning number of points. The more shots you take, the more likely you will amass points. But the winning player is the person who first develops the skill to make the shot consistently, so that at every possible opportunity, the ball is....

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Thursday, February 9

FII FnO Data Analysis for 10 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 9-Feb-12.
  
FII sold 2114 Contracts of NF worth 57.54 cores OI also increased by 5120 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 49  points and OI has increased by 5K contracts Longs are built into the system .
3. As we discussed yesterday the Impact of INSIDE DAY got unfolded today in last 30 mins. One way move in 15 mins and we broke 5400. The impact was not so explosive as we predicted but still gave some good points to intraday traders.
4. Trending markets can.........


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Technical Analysis:SBI,RIL and Oracle Financials

Forget about predicting and thumping your chest with pride when you are right. If you think you are smarter than the net total of all participants in the markets then good luck. Money is made by going with the flow of the market until the flow changes. Your job is to find ways to actually measure what is happening and use the market action as a guide to your own actions. You also have to carefully manage your risk so you can survive being wrong and still have capital to profit when you are right.

SBIN

SBI taking support at its breakout trendline.Break of trendline will come at 2145-52 levels.

Sell below 2145 Tgt

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Wednesday, February 8

FII FnO Data Analysis for 9 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 8-Feb-12.
FII bought 6236 Contracts of NF worth 184.34 cores OI also increased by 17268 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was up by 33 points and OI has increased by 17K contracts Longs are built into the system .
3. Nifty after Long time showed some volatility for day traders up in morning by 67 points than down to -4 and settled with 33 points of gains.  FII did lot of day trading today as there averge traded price came to 5912 .
4. Yesterday we talked about the bearish engulfing pattern today Nifty formed .....


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Tuesday, February 7

FII FnO Data Analysis for 8 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 7-Feb-12.


1. FII bought 25942 Contracts of NF worth 692.95 cores OI also increased by 23172 contracts.
2. OI has increased by 23172 Contracts the highest in Feb series which now this is intresting as OI has risen to almost 81485 contract in past 2 days and in total they have bought 37509 contracts which means we are left with 43796 contracts. Now  were shorts got created at higher levels we need confirmation on this  .
3.





Now lets have a look at Daily chart of Nifty
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Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,ICICI Bank and RIL

Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as under confidence during strings of losers.


Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has faced resistance at its trendline at 10331 as discussed yesterday.Failure to break the resistance line can lead to topping out formation. Shorts shall be taken with Sl of 10339


Buy above 10339 Tgt...


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FII FnO Data Analysis for 7 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 6-Feb-12.

1. FII bought 11567 Contracts of NF worth 318.57 cores OI also increased by 58673 contracts.
2. OI has increased by 58673 Contracts the highest in Feb series which means FII are still towards to long side of trade. Still no signs of shorting the index

3. Average traded price from FII data comes at 5508 which is way higher  than today's traded price of 5372, which means institution have done lot of day trading.Nifty was quiet volatile and gave good trades for intraday players.
4. Nifty trend is strong which can be understood how the Dips



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Monday, February 6

Technical Levels:Hindalco,SBI and Bank Nifty

Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors are profitable; in “bad times” even the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it.


Bank Nifty


Bank Nifty had a one side rally has resisted today at trendline resistance Made a high of 10307 and is correcting .


Buy above 10307 Tgt...



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Sunday, February 5

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 06 Feb

Nifty continued its dream run with another 2.3% upmove for the previous week. FII has bought equities worth 4691 cores on first 3 days on February, which lead to Nifty moving above the 200 DMA.

Trend Deciding level 5205  gave good trade to positional traders as per Last Weekly Analysis

Are we out of Woods looking the the dollar inflow we saw I guess not as still MACRO problem persists. Core sector grew a tepid 3.1% in December, and credit offtake for calendar 2011 almost halved to 15.2%. On the positive side, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a sentiment indicator, climbed to a seven-month high of 57.5 in January.
So now everybody is asking are we in Bull market or this is one of the sharp and swift bear market rally?
As a Technical Analyst there are basic 4 Criteria to define Bull and Bear Market
1. Trading  above 200 SMA -- It has been 3 days Nifty has been trading above 200 SMA . Condition Met
2.  200 SMA should trade below 50 SMA which is still not met.As shown in below chart 200 SMA is trading above 50 SMA.Condition Still not Met

3. Bull markets are defined when Index reaches ....

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Friday, February 3

Technical Analysis:RIL,Wipro and ICICI Bank

“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt


Reliance Industries

RIL facing its trendline resistance and 200 DMA @842.Stock was unable to break 200 DMA at one shot.

Buy above 832 Tgt


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Thursday, February 2

FII FnO Data Analysis for 3 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 2-Feb-12.

1. FII bought 11919 Contracts of NF worth 328.75 cores OI also increased by 7895 contracts.
2. OI has increased by 7895 Contracts which means FII have moved towards long side of trade, Still no signs of shorting the index

3. Averge traded price from FII data comes at 5516 which is way higher  than today's traded price of 5272, which means institution have done lot of day trading.
4. Nifty trend is strong which can be understood how the Dips on Supreme Court cancelling the licensees the dips get bought into with a sharp V shaped recovery. FII SAR 5228 ...

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Wednesday, February 1

FII FnO Data Analysis for 2 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 1-Feb-12.

1. FII sold 16786 Contracts of NF worth 427 cores OI also decreased by 7516 contracts.
2. OI has decreased by 7516 contracts which means FII have used the rise to book out longs, Still no signs of shorting the index

3. Lets analyses the Data of OI from start of series ie. On 27 Jan OI was 477398 today OI is....


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