Bulls celebrating Diwali on Dalal Street, FII data analysis

• FIIs bought 15148 contracts of Index Future worth 490 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 167031 contracts.

Nifty made a fresh 52 week high today at 6309 and Sensex at its 5 year high,Nifty is approaching the crucial 6337 level. If charts are seen closely every time it touch the 6338 level we see a..

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Sensex at life highs but No Fireworks for Retail Investor

The BSE Sensex closed at a record high on Wednesday riding on strong fund flows from overseas investors. The Sensex gained 105 points to close at 21,034, while the 50-share Nifty ended at 6,251.70, rising 31 points.
Media is abuzz with Sensex reaching new life High on Diwali day which is quiet possible but should you as retail investor be excited about this?
Sensex represent only 30 stocks from gamut of 1000+ actively traded stocks, Retail traders and investors trade in stocks which is showing a different picture all together.
The worrying aspect of the current rally is that many stocks are trading significantly off their highs when the Nifty hit 6,229 (the previous high for 2013 hit in May) earlier this year. 
Banks and Financials forms almost..

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How should traders play markets ahead of F&O expiry

• FIIs bought 6001 contracts of Index Future (bought 16994 long contract and 10993 shorts were entered ) worth 194 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 27987 contracts.So with rise shorts were also added by FII's.

Nifty made a fresh 52 week high today at 6270 and Sensex closed above 21000,  has reached near to the highly crucial level of 6252,Still Unable to enter the uptrending channel and huge negative divergence in..

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FII F&O Data analysis before RBI policy meet

• FIIs bought 3434 contracts of Index Future (bought 5780 long contract and 2346 shorts were entered ) worth 111 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 8126 contracts.

Nifty at last gave the follow up down move after series of  DOJI formation,forming a bearish engulfing before the RBI day. Nifty made high near our Weekly Trend Changer level of ..

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Maruti, Syndicate and Axis Bank Technical analysis

Maruti

Maruti has formed multiple doji's strong support at 1453  and resistance at 1549.

Buy above 1511 Tgt..

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How will Bank Nifty react to RBI and FOMC events, Weekly Analysis

Last Week We gave the Bank Nifty Weekly Trend changer level as 10756 Bank Nifty did 2 target on upside.
Next week is quiet crucial for Bank Nifty as we have RBI Policy, FOMC meeting and F&O expiry all 3 lined up in next 4 days. Bank Nifty being an high beta instrument will rise and fall sharply based on the outcome of events so trade very cautiously and with strict stop loss.
Lets analyze how to trade Bank Nifty in coming week.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly is holding to its


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RBI Governor and US Fed to decide the next move in Nifty, Weekly analysis

Last Week we gave the Weekly Trend Deciding level as 6207 Sensex Nifty for whole 5 days failed to close above 6207 and did 1 target on downside is quiet range bound week of recent times . Nifty has formed 4 DOJI candlestick pattern in last 5 session suggesting an confusion in market participants and reduction in fund flows. Next Week we have the RBI Policy on Tuesday and FOMC meeting decision on Thursday morning and also the October series expiry so exciting week ahead. Sensex for 1 time traded above 21000 in 3 years and Nifty made a new 52 week high. Muhurat trading session will be held on 3 November and 4 November being an Holiday on account of DIWALI. 

Nifty Hourly

Nifty for the first time has closed below its 50 HSMA...

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S&P 500 no correction in past 2 year, warning sign

"Correction" is a term that gets used increasingly loosely in stock market talk, to where it's becoming applied to every 2 percent or 3 percent selloff that happens these days.
Truth is, though, the stock market hasn't had a real correction-a drop between 10 percent and 20 percent-in more than two years.
That's been 516 trading days, during which the stock market has weathered a European recession, a U.S. government shutdown, a fiscal cliff and sequestration , a presidential election-a daunting menu of landmines that would have tripped up many other bull markets.
But not this one.
Instead, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) has rallied nearly ..

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FII data analysis before crucial RBI policy

• FIIs sold 8509 contracts of Index Future (bought 768 long contract and 9277 shorts were entered ) worth 255 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 10045 contracts.So FII's have slowly started entering shorts in Index Futures on more aggressive basis and one day before the crucial RBI event.

Nifty after forming a gravestone DOJI formation yesterday and breaking the channel on downside today again formed DOJI pattern and continue to trade below the channel. Bearish below 6100..

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ICICI Bank, ITC and Bharat Forge Technical Analysis

ITC

ITC has also formed a gravestone DOJI formation,Any close below 340 gives short term target of 331 and 322.

Buy above 344 Tgt..

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Nifty forms gravestone doji, FII data analysis

• FIIs sold 2302 contracts of Index Future (bought 5817 long contract and 8119 shorts were entered ) worth 68 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 13936contracts.So FII's have slowly started entering shorts in Index Futures.IN our yesterday Option analysis FII have taken long in PE and today even though we saw a 52 Week High on Nifty but fell down during the session and closed in Red.
  

Nifty made a new 52 week high today @6252 and Sensex Crosses 21K For The First Time Since November 2010. Nifty moved ..

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Kotak Bank,Idea and Biocon Technical Analysis

Kotak Bank

Kotak Bank has formed 2 DOJI and Inside day pattern signalling an explosive move is round the corner.

Buy above 712 Tgt..

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Nifty forms triple top,FII data analysis

• FIIs sold 689 contracts of Index Future (bought 6161 long contract and 6580 shorts were entered ) worth 25 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 13011 contracts.So FII's have slowly started entering shorts in Index Futures.IN our last 2 days Option analysis we have clearly mentioned FII's are using rise to exit the market and today we saw the trailer on downside.
  

Nifty today closed at 6178 ..

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Who as a Trader you are fighting against?

 The day the trader stops blaming the markets, politicians, or ‘They’ and ‘Them’ for losses and starts taking responsibility for their own trading could be the day that they begin to change from losing money to making money. In the end the market is like the ocean and we are the surfer, we choose the surfboard and the waves and the ocean really doesn’t care what we do it’s just there. The quality of our ability to ride a wave is based on our skills, technique, and experience our emotions contain no edge. In the end we win or lose based on our ability to overcome our own weaknesses.
Market price action is neutral to our existence, it is our method that determines our profitability and we choos

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Raymond,Rel Cap and Exide Technicals

Raymond

Raymond formed Bullish engulfing pattern and near its 200 DMA.

Buy above 276 TGt..

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Nifty holds 6200, FII data analysis

• FIIs bought 3026 contracts of Index Future (bought 8666 long contract and 5640 shorts were entered ) worth 110 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 14306 contracts.So FII's have slowly started entering shorts in Index Futures.
  

Nifty today closed at 6203 and Nifty has formed a DOJI candlestick signalling a pause in current uptrend. Nifty was trading in 39  point range today absorbing the supply of traders who are struck..

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Nifty forms Doji candle, FII FnO data analysis

• FIIs bought 5395 contracts of Index Future (bought 6087 long contract and 692 shorts were entered ) worth 167 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 6779 contracts.
  

Nifty today closed at 6204 and is the highest weekly closing since 10 Nov 20111, Nifty has formed a DOJI candlestick signalling a pause in current uptrend. Nifty was trading in 57 point range..

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Bulls ruling Dalal Street, FII FnO data analysis

• FIIs bought 22563 contracts of Index Future (sold 1161 long contract and 23724 shorts were squared off ) worth 665 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 24885 contracts.SO todays rise was backed just by short covering by FII's , no fresh buying was done  by them in 150 points rise. Caution should be used on longs.
  

Nifty opened with gap up near channel support and gave the big rally, still trading in channel and trading near the higher end, Unable to close above 6207 we..

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How to Build Confidence as a Trader

Your level of confidence as a trader will have a huge positive impact on your success. The more confident you are the less time you will spend on second guessing your decisions. The more confident you are the more positive energy you will focus toward your desired outcome.
WHERE IT COMES FROM
Confidence is based on two things; what you do and who you are. When a trade stops for a loss your confidence becomes rattled. This is because confidence is based on what you do. When confidence is based on who you are and your ability as a trader, one who is prepared for all outcomes whether a loss or a profit, then you are consistent with yourself no matter what the result. You will feel confident because you took the loss as intended or because you closed wi..

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Trading Calls:Larsen,Axis Bank and Petronet

Larsen

Larsen has taken resistance at its Fibo channel and any break below 833 will see stock cracking to 798 odd levels. Bullish only above 846 for target of 898

Buy above 846 Tgt

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US Debt done, Where is Nifty heading in short term

• FIIs bought 5055 contracts of Index Future (bought 11683 long contract and 6628 shorts were added ) worth 155 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 18311 contracts.So even though the US Deb deal done markets used this as an opportunity to correct. Thats why I always say never try to trade as per news.
  

Nifty opened with lot of optimism after US Deb deal was done, consolidated in..

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Stock Trading Calls:Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto and HCL Tech

Axis Bank

Axis Bank is near a crucial level of 1068, Any break below it stock will go till 1020 and 987 odd levels.

Buy above 1098 Tgt..

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Mission "Raise The Debt Ceiling" Is Accomplished

And so, in the proverbial 11th hour, or technically 10th hour and 10th minute before the midnight of the X-Date, the House gets the necessary 216 votes to pass the Senate bill to raise the debt ceiling, and in a final 285-144 tally, in which 87 Republicans voted yea to 144 GOP noes as all 198 Democrats vote yea, has agreed to restore funding.
Next up: the BLS random number generator starts cranking again and informing everyone in just how sorry a state the economy finds itself, which of course is bullish for stocks because it means that the taper is indefinitely delayed, potentially until June 2014. Also next up, as the emergency Treasury measures are netted out against the new debt limit, it means that once the new Daily Treasury Statement hits, the total US Federal debt will be just at, or over $17 trillion. Rejoice.
Finally - see you all again here in three months. In the meantime the interim status quo is as follows:

• The government will be reopened through January 16
• The debt ceiling has been lifted through February 7, while the Treasury is allowed to use its assortment of emergency measures to delay running out of funds, which means the next true X-Date will hit sometime in April
• The House and Senate budget conference must real a deal by December 13, but it may very well not achieve anything.

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The Confident Trader

Rahul  tells his friend, "I'm staying out of the markets for a few days."
"Why?" asks Raman.
"I can't trade under these conditions. I'm going to wait for the markets to change," answers Rahul.
"What a lack of confidence," Raman taunts.
"Maybe, but I'd rather be safe than sorry," Rahul retorts.
Does Rahul actually have a lack of confidence? Just because Rahul doesn't want to trade under market conditions that are not suited to his method does not mean that he lacks confidence. He may be showing a sense of heightened self-awareness. It is possible that he is acknowledging that he lacks the skill to trade under current conditions and that he would rather prudently stand aside than jump impulsively into market conditions that he can't trade. Sometimes, a high level of confidence can be defined as realistically knowing what you can and cannot do. According to this definition, how confident are you?
Many people confuse true self-confidence with..

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FII positions as per F&O data before crucial U.S. Debt Ceiling

• FIIs bought 25404 contracts of Index Future (bought 28620 long contract and 3216 shorts were added ) worth 795 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 31836contracts.FII's today again went long in NF, but has started shorting Index Futures also.
  

Nifty opened with a gap up moved above its last swing high of 6142,made a new high of 6156 but was unable to sustain at higher levels and correction crept in and closed below 6100. Indian markets are closed today and all eye on US debt ceiling drama.Nifty touched the ..

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October 17 "Debt Deadline" Could Be Breached Even With A Last Minute Deal

With two days to go to until dreaded October 17 D-Day (on which incidentally, very little of note will happen, because as Goldman explained earlier today, that is simply the date past which the Treasury can no longer borrow, but still has some $30 billion in cash which could last to fund the Treasury's needs as long as the end of the month if not longer) Washington is now openly playing with fire. Because for all the hopeful talk of an imminent deal on Thursday, then on Friday, then today, not only is there nothing substantive on the table, but Obama will not even meet with the Senate, let alone the House, until tomorrow morning. At that point there will be about 36 hours until October 17. But what is worse for all the end is nigh-ers, who are absolutely certain the world will end if Congress crosses the D-Day deadline (which, again, as Goldman said earlier "going slightly past the October 17 deadline is entirely possible") is that as The Hill explains, Senate could still miss the debt deadline, assuming there is a debt deal in the first place. Which is a big if.
Here's how someone (coughcruzcough) so inclined (and there are quite a few conservative someones out there) could delay the process so that the magical October 17 deadline is breached. The Hill explains:

 If a senator or group of senators wanted to prolong the process as long as possible, experts warn, the Senate could blow right past that deadline even if there are enough votes to overcome a filibuster.

"People should recognize that it is going to be a major legislative effort to get any deal that's reached passed by the end of Thursday," warned Steve Bell, a longtime Republican Senate staffer who is now with the Bipartisan Policy Center.
Whether the Senate will be able to advance a compromise before the Treasury deadline will hinge almost entirely on whether any senator decides to exhaust their procedural powers fighting the measure.
"If [senators] want to really be as obstreperous as the rules of the Senate would allow them, I don't think you could pass a deal ... until the weekend," said Bell. "That's the worst case scenario."
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) did almost everything he could to delay work on a continuing resolution to fund the government, even holding a 21-hour speech on the Senate floor.

Cruz on Monday declined to say whether he could get behind a deal that didn't make significant changes to ObamaCare, and wouldn't give any indication as to whether he'd try to block it.

"We need to see what the details are first," Cruz said.

Cruz is hardly the only stumbling block toward a smooth deal, should one even materialize. And judging by the market's reaction, which is now up 600 points in three days just on hope there will be a deal, any actual impetus to act by the Republican party, which will only bury itself even deeper in the popularity rankings if it folds to all of Obama's demands, has been effectively eliminated. In fact, the so-called Ben Bernanke market is openly daring the government to stay shut down, and please, do breach the debt ceiling. The GOP may very well oblige.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has been involved in compromise talks with centrist members, said Monday the contours of a final deal could influence whether conservative senators like Cruz or Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) tried to slow it down.

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) acknowledged that passage of a deal could take a while due to procedural tactics.

"If we had grownups who care more about the country than their own political future and the kind of fundraising they can do from a small ideological group, then I'd be very confident," he said.

Finally, it was Jack Lew himself who if not literally last Thursday, then certainly metaphorically made it quite clear that an October 17 deadline would mean without a deal, then fire and brimstone pouring on sinners from heaven: "The Treasury has not said the government would default Friday without a debt-limit boost, but warned that it could no longer guarantee the government would be able to pay all its bills on any given day."
It would be quite ironic to the purveyors of untold destruction - namely Obama, the US Treasury, and all democrats - if first the Sequester, then the Fiscal Cliff, and now the debt ceiling had their deadlines crossed, and the world was still standing the next day.
But hardly surprising. Then again, all is fair in the Washington's Hollywood endings of the perfectly expected. And this one will be no different... even if the US does actually default technically for a few brief hours.

Taken from net

PNB,PFC and Ranbaxy Trading Analysis

PNB

PNB is still trading in its triangle  and formed an Inverted Hammer candelstick pattern,

Buy above 492 Tgt..

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NIfty closes above 6100, FII FnO data analysis

• FIIs bought 23539 contracts of Index Future (bought 14262 long contract and 9277 shorts were added) worth 709 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 4985 contracts.FII's today again went long in NF.We had a bad Inflation data and IIP data was also a shocker still market is discounting the bad news, and closed above 6100.
  

Nifty closed at 6112 and is very near to its last swing high of 6142. Nifty is still trading in..

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Dow Jones Technical outlook for US Debt ceiling

US Debt ceiling suspense will get over by 17 October, Markets are confident that US Politicians will come back together and raise the debt limit.But if we go through the History back in 2011, Stock Markets correction  actually took place once an agreement was reached so will the same be repeated again ? 
Next few days will unravel the mystery  us the answers to the above questions, Lets understand whats price action on charts is telling us.
Dow Chart in after 2011


After a 2010-2011 surge helped by QE2 in ..

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Reliance,Hindalco and Indusind bank Trading Analysis

Reliance Industries

Reliance Industries is  Trading in an expanding triangle formation,Strong support at 843 levels and resistance above 898.

Buy above 870 Tgt 875,883 and 890 SL 863

Sell below 860 Tgt 856,848 and 843 SL 863

Indusind Bank

Indusind bank is taking resistnace at its higher end of trendline,Any close above 434 gives positional target of 466.

Buy above 430 Tgt 433,438 and 445 SL 428

Sell below 427 Tgt 424,420 and 415 SL 429

Hindalco

Hindalco is taking support at its upward rising trendline,Holding the same bounceback till 121 can be seen, Any close below 110 will see stock correcting till 105,102  levels.

Buy above 116 Tgt 117.7,119 and 121 SL 115

Sell below 113.5 Tgt 112.2,110 and 108 SL 114.3

Stock Performance Sheet for the Month of September is Updated @http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/  Net Profit for the month of Sep is 1.82 Lakh and Oct Month 93.5 K
Stock Performance Positional sheet for Sep Month is updated on http://positionalcallsperformance.blogspot.com/  Net Profit for Sep Month 2.35 Lakhs , Oct Month 1.03 Lakh

• All prices relate to the NSE Spot
• Calls are based on the previous trading day's price activity.
• The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
• Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.
• Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis before crucial US Debt ceiling dilemma

Last Week We gave the Bank Nifty Weekly Trend changer level as 10236 Bank Nifty did 1 target on downside and 2 target on upside in volatile week, so traders were able to capture both up move and down move.
Lets analyze how to trade Bank Nifty in coming week.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty on daily chart is forming a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern,the pattern gets invalidated on close above 10900, Pattern gets active one the red trendline is broken on closing basis around 10000 odd levels.

Bank Nifty Fibo Fans

Fibo Fans has been applied on Bank Nifty weekly charts and bank nifty closed at the upper end of fibo fan,Any close above 10329 Bank nifty will move till 10686 in coming week. As discussed last week Bank Nifty makes high of 10649. Now any break below 10307 will be Bank Nifty touching 9800 odd levels.

 Bank Nifty Fibo Retracement

Bank Nifty will take resistance   at 10700  and support at 38.2 % 9889 as shown in above chart.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty on WoW basis was up by 425 points and closed  @10622 Bank Nifty is stuck in trendline crossover region unable to cross the upper end Bulls will make one more attempt next week failing to do so we will see fall all the way upto lower end of trendline.

Bank Nifty Monthly

Monthly charts are trading near the monthly downward falling trendline, Monthly closing is still far away.
 Bank Nifty Trading Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:10626

Bank Nifty Resistance:10756,10886,11016

Bank Nifty Support:10496,10236,10106

Levels mentioned are Bank Nifty Spot
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
We do discussion is Live market to update Nifty levels If you are interested you can LIKE the page to get Real Time Updates.
Follow on Facebook during Market Hours:  https://www.facebook.com/pages/Brameshs-Tech/140117182685863

Nifty Market Analysis for 15-19 Oct

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5946 Nifty  Nifty achieved 2 weekly target on upside and 1 weekly target on downside so traders were able to capture both upside and downside move :).
IIP data was a big shocker August #IIP growth at 0.6% vs 2.6% in July  and No Deal on US Debt ceiling  are big negative events devloped on Weekend, Inflation data will be coming on Monday and will lead to volatility in Stock market. Reliance Results will be declared on Monday after market close.
Next Week we are having Holiday on 16 October
Lets analyze how to trade Nifty next week.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is still trading above trendline crossover

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"No Deal" - Boehner Says Obama Rejects Proposals, Not Negotiating; Talks At An Impasse

After a two-day, five hundred point Dow Jones rally on nothing but hope that just because politicians are talking, all shall be well, it was the weekend's turn, when the market is conveniently closed, for true Congressional colors to emerge. Sure enough, moments ago Boehner told GOP lawmakers that Obama has "rejected our deal", and that talks with the president have hit an impasse. The WSJ, whose recent poll in conjunction with NBC found Republican approval rating at an all time low (because if the debt ceiling slams shut, the machinery that funds both the "wealth effect" for the 0.01% and the 60 million on foodstamps and disability will cease: or in other words a bust for the ultra wealthy and poor, if not quite so bad for what's left of the middle class) reports that his comments, in a closed-door meeting with House Republicans, put renewed focus on a plan being developed by Senate Republicans to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and fully reopen the government. As we speculated, Obama, smelling blood, has decided to shut down the GOP on all their demands: "On Saturday, a House GOP aide said Mr. Obama had essentially rejected everything offered by House Republican leaders in their proposal." Which is hardly a negotiation. The question is will the GOP, having pushed the limit so far, decide to back off now, and let Obama take all the spoils?
As also reported previously, house lawmakers portrayed their talks with the White House more negatively than the picture that had emerged on Friday, after Mr. Obama phoned Mr. Boehner to discuss a proposal that House Republicans presented late Thursday. The White House said Mr. Obama had "concerns'' about the plan but that the two sides had agreed to keep talking.

Mr. Boehner told GOP lawmakers he was now waiting for Mr. Obama to re-engage with the House leadership, said Rep. Richard Hudson (R., N.C.). "The president will have to come to the table with something,'' said Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R., Ill.). "All eyes are now on the Senate. The question is what will Senate Republicans do.''

WaPo adds:

House Republicans were told by Speaker John Boehner Saturday morning that negotiations between the House GOP and President Obama have ended, with Obama’s rejection Friday of the House’s latest offer.

At a closed door meeting in the basement of the Capitol, Boehner urged members to hold firm, several said, even as Senate Republicans work to negotiate their own proposal to end the impasse.

House members expressed anxiety about the Senate talks. House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) said House leaders were only briefed on a proposal being circulated by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) on Saturday morning and were opposed to it. He said the reasons for opposition were too many to enumerate.

Admitting it’s not optimal, Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said Saturday that “all eyes are now on the Senate” this morning as the House waits to see how the upper chamber votes on a bill to fund the government.

Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho) sounded a frustrated note as he left a GOP conference meeting.

“The president rejected our deal,” Labrador said.

“It’s all good. It’s now up to the Senate republicans to stand up,” the Idaho republican added.

While in the Senate the prevailing GOP sentiment is one of folding to Obama as well, Darrell Issa moments ago noted that Obama has rejected the Seante GOP offer as well, which he said "contains real reform", instead pushing merely for higher taxes.
So while Obama seems dead set on getting his way or the highway, all the momentum for late last week appears to have stalled, perhaps direcly as a result of the massive ramp in the stock market which once again may have come too early, taking away all the pressure from the negotiation, which now appears set to repeat the tried and true pattern of yet another market plunge whose only goal is to force the negotiators to sign in the 11th hour.
And speaking of 11th hour, it may just be revisited, since as Bloomberg reported, after today there are no votes scheduled until 6:30 pm on Monday, roughly two days before the first X-Date.
More from Bloomberg:

• Rep. Bill Flores, R-Texas, says Obama is “not talking to us” and “is trying to talk to the Senate Republicans”
• Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Ill., says he knows of no plans by leadership to seek a vote on increasing debt ceiling for six weeks
• Rep. John Fleming, R-La., says “we’re getting a bait and switch strategy from the White House;” next step is for House members to keep passing clean piecemeal bills to open govt
• After today, House isn’t planning any votes until Monday around 6:30pm, says Rep. Trey Radel, R-Fla.

In short: anyone who thought the debt ceiling tragicomedy was over, is very much mistaken.

Taken from Internet.

Why retail traders typically buy options and professional trader write options

Regular readers of my site must be well aware of the fact, I always ask traders with small capital to stay away from Buying Options, During my trading course Typically 80% of traders have confessed , that they made there big loss when they have bought options.
Retail traders are always looking at buying options because technically you have chances of making unlimited profits with investments of small premiums, very similar to how lottery tickets work. What a retail trader forgets to look at is the fact that the odds of winning are much lower than when you are writing options. Yes when you write/sell options the profit is limited and is probably just a fraction of the margin that is blocked for writing, but the odds of winning go up significantly.
Let me elaborate with an example
Nifty is currently trading at ..

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How to Trade Infosys before Q2 Results

Infosys Q2 Results will be declared before  Friday market opening this will be first result after Narayana Murthy took over the rein of Infy,stock having risen 25% in the past three months
Infosys is famous for Wild swing after the Quarter results as shown in below chart . Past 3 Quarters have been market with Huge gap up and gap downs by more than 10%.  So trading in Infosys is playing with fire 1 day before results day  :)
Most of traders use the option route to trade Infosys so am discussing what option data is revealing 2 days before results.

Option Market Analysis

Open interest on Infosys options rose by 41.5% on Wednesday, two days ahead of the company’s results announcement. The implied volatility of ATM options is at  60-65%, which implies that traders expect a sharp swing in Infosys shares on Friday. Option premiums are now so high that the stock will have to move by well more than 15% for straddle buyers to profit. In a straddle position, traders buy both a call and a put option, expecting to profit from a sharp move in either direction but with such high IV's it does not make a good risk to reward ratio to Buy  straddle and hence traders should avoid the same.

Daily Chart

Infy is taking support at its Fibo Fan and Any move above 3194 gives short term target of 3300 and 3561.

Weekly Chart Time Analysis

Time analysis on Weekly chart is shown, It seems Nifty has created its short term top and any close below 2961 stock will correct till 2817 odd levels.  So 3194 is the level to be watched on.

Intraday Traders can use the below mentioned levels.

Buy above 3132 Tgt 3157,3190 and 3232 SL 3109

Sell below 3080 Tgt 3060,3040 and 3000 SL 3109

Nifty closes above 6000, FII FnO Data analysis

• FIIs bought 18508 contracts of Index Future (bought 14407 long contract and 4101 shorts were covered) worth 506 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 10306 contracts.FII's today went long in NF with 150 point rise but no major short covering was seen.
  

• Nifty opened gap down  due below 5900 due to global cues, and started with gap filling and once moved above 5946 went ahead till 6012 and filled the gap of 5989-6012. We need to get a confirmation with Nifty closing above 6020 for next 2 days else this will be false breakout. As shown below chart Nifty has still not broken the upward falling trendline.

• Nifty Future Oct Open Interest Volume is at 1.62 cores with addition  of 7.8 lakhs in Open Interest,with rise in cost of carry, Long addition in market.
  

• Total Future & Option trading volume at  1.16  lakh with total contract traded at 3 lakh.PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.99.Looking at the trading volume data tomorrow we are going to see a Big move in market.This is what we discussed and Nifty saw a big rise 

• 6100 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at55.3  lakhs with addition of 9.7 lakhs in OI will be short term resistance. 6000 CE added just 75K, We discussed yesterday Nifty closed above 5900 for 3 day in row but Call writers are holding on to there positions and Nifty showed with huge rally  and 5800 seems to be a firm base for time being, FII's added 5.7  K in Call option and12.3K CE were shorted, so limited upside or we can see a fall tomorrow. 5500-6100 CE added 7.3 lakh in OI.
  

•  5700 PE is having the highest OI of 59.3  lakhs, suggesting strong support of Nifty. 5800 PE added another 2.4 lakh suggesting 5800 can remains short term bottom for coming few days. 5900 PE added 5.5 lakh suggesting  5900 will remain short term support. FII's added 6.4 K in Put option and 18.5 K PE were shorted.5500-6100 PE added 24.1 lakh in OI.
  

• FIIs bought 326 cores in Equity ,and DII sold 97 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.91.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5992 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 5916  and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 10103 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future rewarded trend follower today also :)
  

Buy above 6020 Tgt  6044 ,6077 and 6101(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 6000 Tgt 5970,5946 and 5920 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Live Nifty A/D charts  Click on the Link
Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values
 http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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What will happen to Stock Market If US Government defaults

Congress has yet to address the impending U.S. debt ceiling, which will be hit on Oct. 17 if nothing is done.
Analysts believe that if the U.S. hits the debt ceiling and eventually defaults on its liabilities, then the resulting market chaos could actually cause investors to dump risk assets and rush into U.S. Treasury securities causing U.S. interest rates to fall.
One risky asset class they are sure to leave is the U.S. stock market.
Deutsche Bank sees a 0% chance that the U.S. debt ceiling debate gets to the point where the Treasury runs out of cash and starts missing interest payments.
"The S&P 500 likely drops to about 1650 if convincing signs of an imminent deal do not emerge by Friday, but not under 1625 as a deal should come before Treasury exhausts its funds," wrote Deutsche Bank's David Bianco in a note to clients. "A multi-week shutdown will drag on GDP, but 4Q GDP & EPS growth will still be decent. We see missed interest payment risk as nonexistent and would use any weakness next week to buy non-financials."
But for the heck of it, Bianco runs the worst-case scenario.
Should the U.S. miss an interest payment, Bianco sees the S&P 500 crashing to 850.

Deutsche Bank

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bianco-delayed-interest-payment-scenario-2013-10#ixzz2h8ksXOMM

Nifty Technical Analysis for 09 Oct

• FIIs sold 5195 contracts of Index Future (sold 7763 long contract and just 2568shorts were covered) worth 169 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 10331 contracts.FII's covered both long and short in Index Futures.
  

• Nifty opened gap up due to RBI surprise last evening but was unable to break the range of 5800-5950 on closing basis. Nifty move went by our theory market will remain choppy with in a small range and frustrating traders and heaven for option writers. Nifty was unable to break the upward rising trendline as shown in below chart. Now the trendline joining  previous tops becomes the support of Nifty as shown below. As discussed in Facebook page, If Nifty is unable to close above 5946 we will go back to 5850,5800 levels.

• Nifty Future Oct Open Interest Volume is at 1.54 cores with liquidation of 5.6 lakhs in Open Interest,with falling cost of carry.
  

• Total Future & Option trading volume at  99  lakh with total contract traded at 2.5 lakh.PCR (Put to Call Ratio) at 0.93.Looking at the trading volume data tomorrow we are going to see a Big move in market.

• 6100 Nifty CE  is having highest OI at 45.6  lakhs with liquidation of 1.2 lakhs in OI. 5900 CE was neutral Nifty closed above 5900 for 3 day in row but Call writers are holding on to there positions  and 5800 seems to be a firm base for time being, FII's added 10.8  K in Call option and just 738 CE were shorted. 5500-6100 CE liquidated 2.4 lakh in OI.
  

•  5700 PE is having the highest OI of 49.6 lakhs, suggesting strong support of Nifty. 5800 PE added another 1.6 lakh suggesting 5800 can remains short term bottom for coming few days. 5900 PE liquidated 2 lakh suggesting  5900can break in next 2 days. FII's added 15.8 K in Put option and 32.1 K PE were shorted.5500-6100 PE added 3.8 lakh in OI.
  

• FIIs bought 226 cores in Equity ,and DII sold 454 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 61.79.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5979 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 5906 and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 10088 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future rewarded trend follower today with gap up :)
  

Buy above 5946 Tgt  5970 ,5989 and 6009(Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 5900 Tgt 5875,5850 and 5835 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Live Nifty A/D charts  Click on the Link
Traders who use Pivot and Camarilla can use the following 2 sites for Hourly values and EOD values
 http://camarillapivotpoints.blogspot.com/
http://niftystockpivot.blogspot.in/

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US Equity Market The Most Expensive In The World?

As per SocGen US Stock Market  current valuations very stretched. On the basis of Price-to-Book (valuation) and return-on-equity (profitability), the US equity market is extremely 'expensive'; and "hoping" for further expansion on the RoE to save the day is whimsical given the limits to leverage.
Via SocGen,
The chart below illustrates a strong and rational link between profitability (as measured by Return on Equity) and valuation (price to book value). The more profitable a market, the higher its valuation. Along with Switzerland, the US equity market generates the highest return on equity and profitability. Both markets have been considered a safe haven over the last few years.

Like for the valuation, the gap between the RoE for US financial stocks (9%) and non-financial stocks (17%) is huge. Excluding financials, US RoE is already back to a high level and has stopped rising over the last 2 years.

It was higher in 2007, but with much more corporate leverage.
And as we warned before - that leverage does not come for free as the credit cycle appears to have turned.

Different Phases in Trading

• ANTICIPATION Phase: This is the stage where you will do the chart reading, try to find cha this is where all the left hand chart reading takes place in preparation for the right hand chart battle. It’s the PROCESS that precedes the ACTION to put on a trade. A technical trader anticipates that a past price pattern will repeat again, so he identifies the pattern, locates a current one and determines a suitable match is present.  Technical analysis is nothing more than finding previous price patterns matched with current market conditions.  Traders anticipate such repetitive behavior based on human nature and seek to take advantage of it.

• The ACTION phase involves hitting the BUY key based on the previous ANTICIPATION process.  Since no one can tell the future or what the right hand side of the chart will reveal, the ACTION is based on the confidence that the trader will do what is right once a trade is put on, which is to exit gracefully at a pre-determined loss line or exit humbly at a pre-determined profit target (P2), fully accepting either/or, or an OUTCOME between one or the other, depending on current market conditions.

• The REINFORCEMENT phase occurs after the trade is closed.  Whether or not the trade is a win, lose, or draw, the self-talk immediately following trade closure is vitally important for the next trade, and even the next series of trades, as future trades can be negatively or positively affected by building pathways to future success.  These pathways are neurologically based and can make or break a successful trading career.  While it is important to ANTICIPATE right side chart OUTCOMES, what is more important is DEVELOPING right side brain reinforcement.

Kotak Bank,Hindalco and Lupin Trading calls

Lupin

Lupin trading in the sideways trading range,Unable to close above 888 stock is heading towards 840 odd levels.

Buy above 878 Tgt 885,891 and 896 SL 874

Sell below 872 Tgt 866,861 and 856 SL 875

Hindalco

Hindalco has formed a double top pattern.

Buy above 120.5 Tgt 121.5,123 and 126 SL 119.8

Sell below 117 Tgt 115,113.8 and 112 SL 118

Kotak Bank

Kotak Bank daily chart is showing an explosive move is round the corner.

Buy above 699 Tgt 706,713 and 723 SL 697

Sell below 695 Tgt 689,680 and 670 SL 698

Stock Performance Sheet for the Month of September is Updated @http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/  Net Profit for the month of Sep is 1.82 Lakh and Oct Month 39.8 K
Stock Performance Positional sheet for Sep Month is updated on http://positionalcallsperformance.blogspot.com/  Net Profit for Sep Month 2.35 Lakhs

• All prices relate to the NSE Spot
• Calls are based on the previous trading day's price activity.
• The call is valid for the next trading session only unless otherwise mentioned.
• Stop-loss levels are given so that there is a level below/above, which the market will tell us that the call has gone wrong. Stop-loss is an essential risk control mechanism; it should always be there.
• Book, at least, part profits when the prices reach their targets; if you continue to hold on to positions then use trailing stops to lock in your profits.

Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis and Chart

Last Week We gave the Bank Nifty Weekly Trend changer level as 9846 Bank Nifty did 1 target on downside and 2 target on upside in volatile week.
Lets analyze how to trade Bank Nifty in coming week.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty on hourly chart  is trading in symmetrical triangle with support at 10197.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty on daily chart is forming a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern, For complete formation of pattern Bank Nifty should move down back to last swing low  8366 odd levels and make another lower low before moving upwards.. This target looks scary but thats the minimum requirement for Descending Broadening Wedge pattern. The pattern gets invalidated on close above 11200.

Bank Nifty Fibo Fans

Fibo Fans has been applied on Bank Nifty weekly charts and bank nifty closed at the upper end of fibo fan,Any close above 10329 Bank nifty will move till 10686 in coming week.

 Bank Nifty Fibo Retracement

Bank Nifty will take resistance  at 38.2%  retracement  at 11200  and support at 61.8 % 9889 as shown in above chart.

Bank Nifty Weekly

Bank Nifty on WoW basis was up by 297 points and closed  @10197 Bank Nifty is stuck in trendline crossover region unable to cross the upper end Bulls will make one more attempt next week.

Bank Nifty Monthly

Negative divergence in the monthly oscillators also means that there is lack of momentum over the long-term time frame.Fibo arcs  are drawn on Monthly chart as shown on above. Interesting week ahead as per above chart.
 Bank Nifty Trading Levels

Bank Nifty Trend Deciding Level:10236

Bank Nifty Resistance:10366,10626,10886

Bank Nifty Support:9976,9716,9456

Levels mentioned are Bank Nifty Spot
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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