Nifty Daily Charts are attached as above as it can be easily intrepretted from charts we are seeing a trendline support at 4850 levels.It that support is held and we close aboce 4950 for 2 days we are heading towards the 5050 and 5100 Levels.
For Tuesday trading session Long positions may be taken in support zone around 4880 with the SL of 4850, for likely target of 4950/4990.
On Weekly charts one good thing to note is we are forming Higher Lows and Higher Highs with resistance at 4950 Once that's crossed a good bullish momentum can take our markets higher and if 4850 is held at closing basis.
ON Friday FII were net Buyers of 800 Cores in cash and PCR at the starting of series is 1.33 which is to be considered as Bullish Sign.
On Daily Charts 370 levels is providing very good support as shown in Charts So keep a Sl below that Position.
On Weekly Charts we are seeing a formation of Flag and Pole Pattern.It is consolidating in the range of 370-395 for few trading Sessions.Once it breaks that level we may see 404 408 and 412 Levels.
In the recent advance of 2009, it thrust above that zone and now in the consolidation zone above that mark. As per the last two weeks price rise, it has formed the fresh buying pivot while the supporting oscillators are also confirming further up move in the near term. So one can accumulate in a range of 380-390 levels with closing below stop loss of 365 levels for the targets of 440-460 levels.Big resistance at 395 levels as mentioned in charts.
The Union Budget was announced on 26th Feb. I have compiled the sectors which are impacted by the Budget and the Stocks in the Sector for which it would be an positive or negative effect.
Important Highlights of Budget:
·Fiscal deficit for FY11 pegged at 5.5% of GDP; rolling targets of fiscal defict at 4.8% in FY12 and 4.1% in FY13
·Inflation seen at 4.5% in both FY12 and FY13; 4% in FY11
·GDP growth seen at 9% in FY13 and 8.5% in FY11
·Divestment proceeds expected at Rs.40,000 cr in FY11
·Expects Rs.35,000 crore from 3G auction
FERTILISER
·Nutrient based fertilsier pricing from 1st April 2010
The forthcoming week is likely to be highly volatile driven by expectations from the upcoming Union Budget. The highly eventful week begins with the Railway Budget on 24 Feb 2010 to be followed by tabling of Economic Survey on 25 Feb and the Union Budget on 26 Feb. Also, the expiry of Feb derivatives contracts this week will add to the volatility on the bourses.
As seen in Charts Fibo 50% is making resistance so that needs to be crossed for further upsides. For trading during the coming trading sessions, trend deciding level is 4850. If Nifty shows strength above 4850 levels then we may see rally to 4950/4990/5025. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 4850 levels then decline to 4800/4725/4650 may be seen.
The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Pivot Point trading is the most basic in trading and lots of traders use this so market finds support and resistance at Pivot Levels.
Pivot Points are support and resistance levels that are calculated using the open, high, low, and close, from the previous trading day. Standard pivot points include the pivot point itself, three full support levels, and three full resistance levels.
If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.
Most important points while trading using Pivots are Pivot Level,R1 and S1.
To Trade using Pivots look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.
How to Trade Using Pivots
1.Before the start of trade we should be ready with the pivot levels for a particular stock/Index we want to trade.I have made an auto update sheet which gets update EOD BasisClick Here
2.Market Open following scenarios Apply: Open is above Pivot: Buy
Open is below Pivot: Sell
3.First Fundamental Of Pivot Trading After the opening range (first 15-30 min. to one hour), if price is above/below the Pivot, Price Action will strongly tend to remain above/below the Pivot for the session.
Although this rule bids us to wait out the Opening Range and thus avoid much of the wildness and whipsawing,
4.If the market opens, or later trades at the extremes (R2, R3 or S2, S3), it will exhibit a tendency to trade back toward the Pivot. Thus, the general rule, 'Avoid buying the High or selling the Low', becomes increasingly more stringent as price moves farther from the Pivot.
Practical Examples
Lets take the Example of Reliance. Trading LevelsforReliance on 17 Feb were High@ 1037.8 Low@1022 Close@1032
When we calculate the Pivot Levels we get the Following Levels
Now lets see how the trading goes on next day ie. on 18 Feb
Reliance opens @ 1030 ie. at Pivot Level and makes a high of 1038 that is the R1 as we have already calculated.But we need to see for sustained of levels and as told previously once price touch R1 we need to see whether they reverse from R1 or break it.
In our case price reverses from R1 ie. 1039 in our case and closes below the Pivot levels.
Now we can take short once price moves below Pivot ie 1030 with SL @ R1 and target of S1 1023,now once 1023 breaks than we can carry our short with target@ S2 This was an ideal trade which one can execute with patience and discipline.Using Pivot trading one can make a decent living using trading when market are not much volatile.Do some paper trading with levels given on the sheet for Monday trading.
YHigh = Yesterday High YLow = Yesterday Low YClose = Yesterday Close
I have made an autoupdate Google Spreadsheet which Update the Pivot Levels of Nifty 50 Stocks Click Here to Get it and Bookmark that
Conclusion
Pivot points are yet another useful tool that can be added to any trader's toolbox. It enables anyone to quickly calculate levels that are likely to cause price movement. The success of a pivot-point system, however, lies squarely on the shoulders of the trader, and on his or her ability to effectively use the pivot-point systems in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. These other technical indicators can be anything from MACD crossovers to candlestick patterns - the greater the number of positive indications, the greater the chances for success.
Golden Rule:
If the days high or low get broken early in the morning trade then go in that direction, period. Don't think!
DLF has found good support at 300 from past few trading seesions. This support should hold as RSI is showing positive divergence and MACD is about to come in positive zone.
If 300 breaks than accept a quick move till 287 levels.
Long should be initiated at 300 for a tgt of 314 322 and 327
Nifty after showing a late and well awaited 1.5% move today in dying hours of trade took everyone by surprise.
Now as per the current technical trend we are on a crucial juncture of trend change in coming 2-3 trading sessions.
From High of 5309 to 4675 if we calculate the Fibo Retracement: 5 WEMA at 4892
38% retracement comes at 4916
50% retracement comes at 4992, closer to week high ema.
Any sell off from 38% mark should be limited to 4822 which is 5 Day EMA.
Bharat Forge taking multiple support at 243 levels during the recent months and now again its coming on the same levels.IF this time it holds that we can see an up move till 251 258 and 262 levels in very short term and if it breaks that we can see levels till 240 236 and 230.
As per indicators it should show a pull back till 251 and after if it sustains above we may see further buying till the levels mantioned
Tata Steel is close to its Trend line Support where it has taken support 3 times in previous fall.525 is an important level to watch >ig that get violated on closing basis we are heading towards 506 and 479 Levels.On Higher side will face resistance at 540 and 552.
Nifty showed a bit of resilience on Last Saturday special trading session and closed with a 1% of gain.We look quiet oversold on Daily Charts as per MACD and RSI.
Now immediate support for Nifty comes at 4692 the low of Friday and Immediate resistance at 4832 Higher of the gap which was formed on Last Friday.
As per the weekly we look quiet oversold on on Weekly charts.As per the technical outlook we look bearish as we are not forming higher highs and higher low.The bearish scenario will be negated if and only if we close above 4951.On the downside we need to watch the level of 4630 which is 200 DMA.
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ONGC on Last friday closed below its 200 DMA which stands at 1114.A stock which closes below its 200 DMA comes under Bear's attack on every pull back.
We need to watch for how many days ONGC closes below its 200 DMA,as if it recovers in coming 2-3 sessions than we can consider this as a wip saw and ignore it.
As Nifty looks ripe for a bounce if global sentiments are suppostive.
Nifty after making a low at 4814 for 3 days in a row than feeling Resistance now at 4950 levels,As a common saying in Previous support become resistance it is proved again in charts shown above.But it would be a good to be on long side as FII bought heavily in Index Futures today in tune of 2300 cores and around 400 cores in cash and Dow is also So technically system remain ripe for clearing the elsuive levels.But will it be able to sustain that? I think yes let market tell
However, it will be entering the resistances @ 4970-4985 & 5000 (Psychological) & then the 5050(Week Ema).
These type of trades are easy to trade as breakout has happen wait for stock come to support level of 123-25 range or let it cross today's high of 132 and it will brezze for a tgt of 136 140 and 148 in this week
The candlestick on the daily charts indicates an‘Engulfing Bull’ characterized by a large white real body engulfing a preceding small real body, appears
during a downtrend which is an important bottom reversal signal and a implies a comeback by bull. It signifies that the downtrend is now losing momentum and the bulls started to take the lead.
Resistance for the scrip is at 887-908-978 and support is at 778-757-721.
Important Note:As per DOW THEORY, breaching of a trend
line would be invalid when its crosses back above trend line within 3 trading days.
1. Nifty has for formed a Bullish Hammer Formation
2. The significance of this pattern will be confirmed on Monday if we see a white candle or nifty opening gap up and sustaining that move.
3. Nifty futures has left a bear gap between 4976 and 4964. This gap may prove to be a strong resistance to cross. Similarly, the low of 4801 made on Nifty futures on 27th November 2009 should act as a significant support to markets for now.
4.We can see a pre budget rally till levels of 5200 if the above mentioned levelsr are crossed.
5.RSI is in oversold region as shown in the charts,as mentioned in previous crash also where RSI reached the lowest level and than we have seen a decent bounce.
6.As the fall have been sharp we will see an equal and unbridled pull back.
AS seen in monthly charts Nifty has never been below 5 Month EMA and it act as a major support and a we see a decent pullback from this levels same case is happening now.Better is to exit shorts and take longs with sl as 4770
