Nifty Weekly Outlook for October 2012

Nifty ended the Q3 with a positive note and a fresh 52 Week high of 5735  but we are entering Q4 with some bad data which came out today. Current Account Deficit came in at 3.9% of GDP against an expectation of 3.3%. Indian Rupee closed at 52.69 almost at 6 month high on sustained FII flows.
2 October will be Holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti, China market will be closed from whole week and Hongkong market will be closed on 1 and 2 October so expect a dull trading for start of Q4.
HSBC PMI data will come on Monday as Economic data from Indian Market perpective.
Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart took support at rising trendline at 5695 on Friday and closed above ...


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Mental Toughness Required by Traders

The mental part of the game. Its an aspect of trading that can easily be ignored, we all choose how we approach this game. Some see failures as opportunities to learn and progress, while others see them as outright failures and road blocks which should be avoided at all costs. Its all about attitude.
I feel that trading should be ‘easy’ It should be effortless and without conflict. If we are going to be in this game for 20+ years. I feel its important to make the experience as easy as we can. We shouldn’t be ‘fighting’ with the market, in the boxing ring, hoping, fearing and stressing.
There is RISK management, but SELF management is equally as important. When we are actively trading the market, we are free to make buy and sell decisions whenever we want. The tough part is consistently making the correct buy/sell decisions. These decisions come with conflict!
Taking Profits
So this is the hardest part of trading. It can be made simple if we accept a few hard facts.
1. You will never sell at the top.

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FII F&O Data analysis for 28 Sep trade in Nifty Future

September Series came to an end with Nifty gaining 6%, so whats in store for October  series,let see how FII are preparing themselves for October Series.
1. FII bought 10928  Contracts of Index Future,worth 372.44 cores  with net OI decreasing by Huge 311707 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 17 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by...

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Techncial Calls:PFC,Chambal and Pantaloon Retail

In any particular trade you never really know how far prices will travel from any given point. If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade. From a psychological perspective this characteristic will allow you to indulge yourself in the illusion that each trade has the potential of fulfilling your wildest dream of financial independence. Based on the consistency of market participants and their potential to act as a force great enough to move prices in your direction, the possibility of having your dreams fulfilled may not even remotely exist. However, if you believe it does, then you will have the tendency to gather only the kind of market information that will confirm and reinforce your belief, all the while denying vital information that may be telling you the best opportunity may be in the opposite direction.

Pantaloon Retail

Pantaloon has rallied 17% in current week on back of FDI in multi brand retail but comments coming from BJP senior Leader and Walmart Asia CEO seems it will be difficult to invest in India so stock can see a pullback .

Sell below 210 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for Nifty Future September 2012 Expiry

1. FII  bought 12351  Contracts of NF worth 400.48 cores OI also increased by 71207. Expiry is tommrow with 51 F&O Stocks moving out so trade these stocks very cautiously. Click this link to know which 51 stocks . Tomorrow session should be volatile specially in 51 stocks so either stay out of market or trade with strict stop loss.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 13 points and OI has increased  by..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 26 Sep trade in Nifty Future

1. FII bought 21938  Contracts of Index Future,worth 644.96 cores  with net OI increasing by Huge 96896 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 1 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 96896, FII created fresh longs Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.Also do note FII are basically doing  lot of day trading in Index futures and rolling over there positions to next series.

3. NS closed at 5674 after making a high ..

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Technical Calls:PFC, AB Nuvo and CESC

Getting high after a huge win – These traders tie their self-worth to their success in the markets or by the value of their account. Usually, these folks have an unrealistic feeling of being “in control” of the markets. A huge loss usually sobers them up pretty quickly. It’s important to maintain emotional restraint after wins, just as you would for losses.

PFC

PFC will be active today as Cabinet committee meet today on deciding on the package for power companies. Stock has been rallying on the basis of this news. Friday saw a quick correction in last 30 mins of trade after unable to breach the range of 201-202.

Buy above 196 Tgt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 24 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Nifty made a fresh 52 week high and closed near its 78 week high of 5691.FII hot money coupled with reforms unveiled by Government of India making bulls to rise higher as Nifty has rallied 502 points in 12 trading session. Expiry is just 4 days away with 51 F&O Stocks moving out so trade these stocks very cautiously. Click this link to know which 51 stocks

1. FII sold 8596  Contracts of Index Future,worth 409 cores  with net OI increasing by 30452 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 136 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 30452, FII have covered  shorts in  Nifty and Bank Nifty Future and went long again in Index Futures. In Classical Technical Analysis any Stock Index makes a fresh high should be bought into.

3. NS closed at 5691,bulls took control ..

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for September 2012 Expiry

In Bull Market every good news is used by market participants to push market higher and every bad news is met small correction which is used by dip buyers to buy more. When Mamata DIDI took her support off UPA we made a correction of 50 points and when Mulayam told he will give outside support Nifty rallied the most in 2012, Typical characteristic  of Bull market so either stay on sideline but do not short the market and go against the trend which will hurt you both mentally and financially.

Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook as we have Nifty September 2012 Expiry

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is heavily overbought with RSI,MACD  and Stochastic indicator consistently trading above 80. Overbought can remain overbought. When such big rallies come its always profitable to have look at higher time frames...

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Self-Discipline:Key to Trading Success

Dr. M. Woodruff Johnson
One of the best article in recent times
Rahul did it again, another big loss day, another day where he did not follow his trading plan.   Rahul had taken trading courses from some very so called trading gurus. He had a trade plan, which covered minute details and was quiet comprehensive. He knew the importance of having a set of trading rules, heck, he had a Golden set trading rules.  He had learned the importance of money management and risk management; in fact, he had in his plan that he would only risk 2% of his portfolio at any particular time and that he would only take trades that were minimum 3:1 reward to risk ratio.  And, his plan listed his appropriate position size for entering trades.  Rahul had gotten fed up yesterday and in an almost fit of rage he “promised” himself that he wouldn’t “violate” his rules again.  That was yesterday, exactly twenty-three hours ago.  he lost the...


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Technical Calls:AIL,PFC and Financial Technologies

Self-discipline is the ability to make the conscious choice (ultimately it becomes a habit) of doing the thing that will move you towards your goal – and sometimes it’s the hard or unnatural or unpopular thing to do.  It’s foregoing instant gratification for the longer term objective.  Typically, however, people operate on autopilot and this is dangerous when you have not yet developed the right ‘habits’ for success. In the trading game, you must have self-discipline. You must look at the entire forest and not focus on one tree.  If you get too caught up in each and every trade, you will lose sight of the larger goal.

PFC

PFC is a stock on a bull run,Stock is up 17% on Week on Week basis,As news is making round that Government will be planing 1.2 cores of loan restructuring for power sector, PFC and REC are main beneficiary. Buy rumor Sell news is apt for PFC and REC

Buy above 197 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 21 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Technical correction is in place giving the breathing space to indicator and cooling off the steam of stocks. Consolidation before the next rally will help market to break the swing high of 5652 and march towards 5740. Expiry is just 5 days away with 51 F&O Stocks moving out so trade these stocks very cautiously. Click this link to know which 51 stocks

1. FII sold 5957  Contracts of Index Future,worth 102.69 cores  with net OI decreasing by 33817 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 41 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 33817, FII have done  ...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 18 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

RBI cut the CRR by 25 BPS and kept repo and reverse repo rates unchanged. 17000 Cores added more to the banking system,but will it trigger rate cut by banks?Read RBI view on Indian Economy
Nifty as discussed in Weekly analysis reacted from 5648,Nifty has moved too fast and furious so next move shall be consolidation in range of 5500-5650. Stock Specific action will be the trend for coming few days. We have discussed Impact of FDI in Multi Brand retail and FDI in Aviation in below post, Traders can have a look at levels for Stocks of their choice in the sector.
Aviation stocks Technical analysis — Jet Airways,KFA and Spice
Retail stocks Technical analysis — Pantaloon Retail, Provogue India,Shopper Stop

1. FII bought 41456  Contracts of Index Future,worth 1122.22 cores  with net OI increasing by 21420 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 32  points ...

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Aviation stocks Technical analysis -- Jet Airways,KFA and Spice

Aviation stocks will be in limelight in today's trading session after Indian Government allowed FDI in Aviation. Stock will be opening with huge gaps but still we can find trading opportunities. Lets jump into technical of   Jet Airways,KFA and Spice Jet

Jet Airways

Jet airways has been rallying on hope of FDI in Aviation and its a reality now after GOI decision on Friday evening.Jet has rallied from 335 to 382 levels.Trend line resistance comes at 420-426 odd levels. Stock will see a gap up opening in tune of 8-10% .

Buy above 404....

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Retail stocks Technical analysis -- Pantaloon Retail, Provogue India,Shopper Stop

Retail stocks will be in limelight in today's trading session after Indian Government allowed FDI in Multi brand retail. Stock will be opening with huge gaps but still we can find trading opportunities. Lets jump into technical of   Pantaloon Retail, Provogue India,Shopper Stop

Pantaloon Retail

Pantaloon Retail will be in limelight tomorrow trading session.Stock will open with a huge gap up probably around 180-185 levels. Last time the FDI in multi brand retail came Pantaloon made a rally from 148-238 in just 8 trading session. So same feat can be repeated this time also.
Stock will face trend line resistance at 190-193 odd levels.

Buy above 196 Tgt....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 17 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Bulls are having a great time with Support from Central Bankers Fed and ECB. Now Bulls got another booster from Indian Government with slew of reforms they have announced on Friday Evening,notable among them are

• FDI in Multi brand Retail
  
• FDI in Aviation

SGX Nifty trading at 5655 another  Gap up on its way http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.in/ We has discussed the possible trading moves in Nifty in Nifty Weekly Outlook (Click on Link)
We have RBI meeting tomorrow and rate cut will add further fuel to fire. Rate Cut Decision will be coming up between 11 AM- 12PM.
1. FII bought 39335  Contracts of Index Future,worth 903.23 cores  with net OI increasing by 30065 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 134  points and Open Interest in Index Futures .....

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Beginning 17 September

US FED Ben Bernake has opened another bazooka for Bulls with QE3. Indian Goverment unleashed slew of Reforms from Diesel Price Hike and FDI in Aviation and Multi Brand Retail so the wheels of government has started turning up. Nifty is poised to open with another gap up on Monday as SGX Nifty closed at 5655.  RBI meeting on Monday can add more fuel to rally if we have rate cut.

Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is heavily overbought with RSI,MACD  and Stochastic indicator consistently trading ...

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Learn from Trading Losses

Most of us want to be as perfect as we can. We do not want to experience failure or setbacks or roadblocks.  In fact, most of us have been raised that failure, in any case and at any time, is ‘bad’ and success is ‘good’.
So if that is the case, then thinking in a very simplistic and logical manner, one would say that you avoid failure and welcome success. You do everything you can to avoid failure.
Even if it means NOT TRYING.
I laughed the first time I listened to Napoleon Hill’s Seminar, “Your Right to be Rich”. He asks the energetic audience to tell him how many times they think it is that someone will try something before he/she gives up.  After he asks the question you can hear people in the room throwing out various answers, and the most audible one is a person who says, “Once.”
Hill retorts with, “Once? ...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 14 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Bulls are having a great time with Support from Central Bankers. First it was ECB with unlimited Bond Buying now its US Fed who has started QE 3

• *FED TO KEEP POLICY STIMULATIVE FOR `CONSIDERABLE TIME'
• *FED WILL ADD TO PURCHASES IF LABOR MARKET DOESN'T IMPROVE
• *FED DOES NOT SAY WHEN MBS PURCHASE PROGRAM TO END
• *FED TO BUY $40B MBS MONTHLY, CONTINUE `OPERATION TWIST'
• *FED TO BUY MBS, EXTENDS ZERO-RATE POLICY INTO 2015

SGX Nifty trading at 5536 Huge Gap up on its way http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.in/ We has discussed the possibility of Nifty hitting 5516 as per Ratio Theory in Weekly Analysis (Click on Link) and Today we

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FII F&O Data analysis for 14 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Bulls are having a great time with Support from Central Bankers. First it was ECB with unlimited Bond Buying now its US Fed who has started QE 3

• *FED TO KEEP POLICY STIMULATIVE FOR `CONSIDERABLE TIME'
• *FED WILL ADD TO PURCHASES IF LABOR MARKET DOESN'T IMPROVE
• *FED DOES NOT SAY WHEN MBS PURCHASE PROGRAM TO END
• *FED TO BUY $40B MBS MONTHLY, CONTINUE `OPERATION TWIST'
• *FED TO BUY MBS, EXTENDS ZERO-RATE POLICY INTO 2015

SGX Nifty trading at 5536 Huge Gap up on its way http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.in/ We has discussed the possibility of Nifty hitting 5516 as per Ratio Theory in Weekly Analysis (Click on Link) and Today we

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Technical Calls:PFC,Dish TV and Delta Corp

Adding to a losing position – Also known as doubling, tripling, quadrupling down, typically, this means that the trader does not want to admit the trade is wrong. The trader’s ego is at stake as the trader is hoping the markets will “work in their favor”. If you are wrong, you have a near 0% chance of making a full recovery.

PFC

Stock has crashed vertically from 194 to 151. Consolidating in the range of 156-165.

Buy above 161.7 Tgt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 13 Sep trade in Nifty Future Trading

Nifty Future made a fresh September series high today at 5453. IIP data came at 0.1 which is as per market expectation.
Another important Global event German Court gave in favour of using ESM and Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions so nothing is stopping Bulls. Always remember hot money chase the momentum and in liquidity driven rally fundamental will take the back seat. So do not waste your time in finding top and bottom,Stay with trend and mint money.
1. FII bought 18249  Contracts of Index Future,worth 437.39 cores  with net OI increasing by 13123 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 42  points and OI has increased by 13123, FII have intitated fresh long in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future. Mometum is on higher side ...

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Breakout Trading Stocks:Siemens,IDFC and Bank of Baroda

As a trader who has seen a great deal and been in a lot of markets, there is nothing disconcerting to me about a price move out of a trading range that nobody understands.
Tight congestion in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.
The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of non speculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.
The general rule is: the less observed, the better the trade.

Siemens

Siemens has given  a breakout above 690 and closed comfortably above it.Today we need to see a follow up move with price and volume action.

Buy above 701...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 12 Sep trade in Nifty Future

Nifty Future made a fresh September series high today at 5409. We have important events lined up in next 3 days so trade with caution as volatlity will be name of the game.

• IIP data will come tomorrow at 11 Am
• German Court decision on whther ESM is part of EU treaty or not will also come.

1. FII bought 5376  Contracts of Index Future,worth 102.69 cores  with net OI increasing by 20516 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 33  points ...

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Technical Calls:Hero Moto,REC and Century Textile

I sincerely feel that success in trading is 80 percent psychological and 20 percent one’s methodology, be it fundamental or technical. For example, you can have a mediocre knowledge of fundamental and technical information, and if you are in psychological control, you can make money. —-The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas

Century Textile

Watchout for 341 levels unable to break the same will lead to 334 odd levels.

Buy above 341 Tgt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 11 Sep trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 19129  Contracts of Index Future,worth 470.22 cores  with net OI decreasing by 33359 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 8  points and OI has decreased by 33359,FII have booked profit at higher levels today in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.

3. NS closed at 5363 above the  61.8%...

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Intraday,Swing Calls:Infosys,Arvind and Sterlite

Faith in your system = Belief through back testing + Experience of winning with it for years
Whether  any individual trade is a winner or loser should not influence your faith in your system and trading method. You should trade in a way that each trade is just one trade out of the next 100. Much of emotional trading can be overcome when you do not have doubts about your method. When you hold an almost religious fervor over believing in your method, system, risk management, and your own discipline you will overcome many of the emotional problems that arise in the heat of action during a live market.

Infosys

Infosys has acquired Lodestone Holding AG, a leading global management consultancy firm.Stock will react positively .The most important level to watch is 2522. IF its able to cross this level rally will continue.

Buy above 2522 Tgt...

 

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FII F&O Data analysis for 10 Sep trade in Nifty Future

Nifty made a weekly close above 5350 with huge shorts covering coming by FII. Read more on Weekly Analysis on Nifty
1. FII  bought 25718  Contracts of Index Future,worth 651.86 cores  with net OI increasing by  31200 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 98  points and OI has increased by 31200,FII covered shorts and initiated fresh long in Index Futures

3. NS closed at 5358 on Saturday which...

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Beginning 10 September

Mario Draghi has opened Bazooka for Bulls with its new Bond buying program Outright Monetary Transactions(OMT). S&P hit 4 year high Nasdaq at 12 years high Gold moved to 1740 $ Euro at 1.28. The Financial market love one world in short term which is Liquidity and as a trader never fight the power of Liquidity. It has been proved time and time again from 2009 after financial crises.  Look at the performance of Indian Markets they are up 12% Year to Date when we have twin deficit ie. fiscal and  current deficit spooling up, rotting macro fundamentals,Coal scam parliament logjam etc. again power of liquidity. Play till music lasts and do not be a die hard bear looking at rotting fundamentals.
Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts were moving in a perfect channel till Thursday where they formed multiple bottom at 5217 gave a rally till 5260 where 50 Hourly SMA acted as resistance and market fell in dying hours,Friday was big gap up and now they are moving in perfect hourly channel. Next resistance comes at 5400 and Support on Hourly chart comes at 5330

Nifty Gaps

Gaps formation in Nifty Daily chart pattern, 4 gaps...

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Jesse Livermore’s Money Management Rules

If you haven’t read this book “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” written in 1923, read it! It is purpordetly the unofficial biography of one of the greates traders ever; Jesse Livermore.  The rules Jesse followed back at the turn of the last century are still very much applicable today.
1) Don’t lose money. Don’t lose your stake. A speculator without cash is like a store-owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, and your best friend. Without cash, you are out of business. Don’t lose your line. There is no place in speculating for hoping, for guessing, for fear, for greed, for emotions. The tape tells the truth.
2) Always establish a stop. A successful speculator must set a firm stop before making a trade and must never sustain a loss of more than 10 percent of invested capital. I have also learned that when your broker calls you and tells you he needs more money for a margin requirement on a stock that is declining; tell him to sell out the position. When you buy a stock at 50 and it goes to 45, do not buy more in order to average out your price. The stock has not done what you predicted; that is enough of an indication that your judgment was wrong. Take sour losses quickly and get out. Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses. Many times I would close out a position before suffering a 10 percent loss. I did this simply because the stock was not acting right from the start. Often my instincts would whisper to me: “J.L., this stock has a malaise, it is a lagging dullard. It just does not feel right,” and I would sell out of my position in the blink of an eye. I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are repeated and appear over and over with slight variations. This is because humans drive the stocks, and human nature never changes. Take your losses quickly. Easy to say, but hard to do.
3) Keep cash in reserve. The successful

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A typical day in life of amateur Intraday trader

Trading is Buying and selling securities or commodities on a short-term basis, hoping to make quick profits.You might hear of rags to riches stories or traders boasting about the money they made in a trade. Its am exciting business but the fact is only 5% of traders are able to make money on a consistent basis.
If you have ever interacted with  Successful traders he would say  that psychology and emotions are 80% of the battle.
Do not overestimate your ability to be unaffected by emotion.
Real Life vs. the Trading Floor
Have you ever imagined why doctors,engineers, and maths graduate who are quiet strong in analytical skills  have burnt hands in trading ?
The pressure and stress you’ll face will be far greater than anything you’ve ever experienced.
When I first started trading, I was confident of my math and analytical skills – so I thought I could base all my trading decisions purely on analysis, unaffected by emotion.
Nothing could be further from the truth – to see why, let’s walk through the emotions of a trade.
Trading Highs and Lows
To simplify the matter lets illustrate the trading emotion using an Intraday Trades,similar emotions can occur over Swing trades and positional trades ranging for weeks or even months.
9:15 AM: You watch as the market opens. You are looking for a good buy entry point into..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 7 Sep trade in Nifty Future

Mario Draghi has delivered the Bazooka for Bulls by saying the below points in his press conference. EU Market are roaring with US markets also climbing as ADP Jobs At 5-Month High

• ECB HAS DECIDED ON MODALITY FOR BOND PURCHASES IN SECONDARY MARKET
• DRAGHI SAYS PURCHASES WILL ADDRESS DISTORTIONS IN BOND MARKETS
• DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL HAVE A FULLY EFFECTIVE BACKSTOP
• DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL ACT STRICTLY WITHIN ITS MANDATE, ECB ACTS INDEPENDENTLY, EURO IS IRREVERSIBLE
• DRAGHI SAYS GOVERNMENTS MUST BE READY TO ACTIVATE EFSF, ESM
• DRAGHI SAYS NEED STRICT CONDITIONALITY
• DRAGHI SAYS ECB TOOK DECISION ON COLLATERAL

1. FII  sold 13321  Contracts of Index Future,worth 296.25 cores  with net OI decreasing by  19877 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 7  points and OI has decreased by..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 6 Sep trade in Nifty Future

Don’t lose your stake. A speculator without cash is like a store-owner with no inventory. Cash is your inventory, your lifeline, and your best friend. Without cash, you are out of business. Don’t lose your line. There is no place in speculating for hoping, for guessing, for fear, for greed, for emotions. The tape tells the truth.
1. FII  sold 18945  Contracts of Index Future,worth 387.42 cores  with net OI increasing by  3273 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 46  points and OI has increased by 3273,so shorts from big players..

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Technical Calls:PFC,BPCL and Bharti

People are successful in business because, while they make mistakes at first, they study these mistakes and avoid them in the future. Then by gradually acquiring a knowledge of the basic principles of success, they develop into good business men. Buthow many apply this rule to investing and trading? Very few do any studying at all. Very few take the subject seriously. They drift into the market, very often get 'nipped' as the saying is, avoid it for a while, return from time to time with similar results, then gradually drift away from it, without ever having given themselves a chance to develop into what might be good traders or intelligent investors. This is all wrong. People go seriously into the study of medicine, the law, dentistry, or they take up with strong purpose the business of manufacturing or merchandising. But very few ever go deeply into this vital subject (of trading and investing) which should seriously be undertaken by all."

PFC

PFC has seen a waterfall decline from 194-151 odd levels. Stock is showing some sign of strength with the formation of ascending triangle but it need to cross 163-165 on closing basis to show sign of recovery else another pullback near new low will be possible.
Volumes are also a concern as yesterday rise was backed by less volumes as compared to previous day.

Buy above 162 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 5 Sep trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 13298  Contracts of Index Future,worth 317.46 cores  with net OI decreasing by  27718 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 16.50  points and OI has decreased by 27718,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series.So FII have been reducing the long exposure in..

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Technical Calls:Maruti,Exide,United Spirits and Aurobindo Pharma

Always establish a stop. A successful speculator must set a firm stop before making a trade and must never sustain a loss of more than 10 percent of invested capital. I have also learned that when your broker calls you and tells you he needs more money for a margin requirement on a stock that is declining; tell him to sell out the position. When you buy a stock at 50 and it goes to 45, do not buy more in order to average out your price. The stock has not done what you predicted; that is enough of an indication that your judgment was wrong. Take sour losses quickly and get out. Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses. Many times I would close out a position before suffering a 10 percent loss. I did this simply because the stock was not acting right from the start. Often my instincts would whisper to me: “J.L., this stock has a malaise, it is a lagging dullard. It just does not feel right,” and I would sell out of my position in the blink of an eye. I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are repeated and appear over and over with slight variations. This is because humans drive the stocks, and human nature never changes. Take your losses quickly. Easy to say, but hard to do.

Maruti

Maruti is near its 200 DMA and trendline resistance, Break of 1170 will lead to 1190-1200 odd levels

Buy above 1170 TGt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 4 Sep trade in Nifty Future

PMI data Purchasing Manufacturing Index was released for European countries and India Summing the data Indicates 80% Of The World Is Now In Contraction. Chinese stock market last week made 3 year low, as i always say stock market discounts news well in advance and on Sunday we got the news Chinese PMI contracted first time in 9 months. Never fight the market and flow with the trend is the general thesis which has been proven correct before,today and in future also.
1. FII  sold 6935  Contracts of Index Future,worth 190 cores  with net OI decreasing by  6289 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 8  points ..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 3 Sep trade in Nifty Future

"Even if the GDP growth number is at 5.5 percent - much above the market expectations, there is no doubt that the country has fallen into a low growth trap due to a continuing fall in fresh investments. The combination of high growth in construction activity and low growth in manufacturing is worrisome from the perspective of macro-economic stability."
1. FII  sold 31704  Contracts of Index Future,worth 741.39 cores  with net OI decreasing by  36914 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 38  points and OI has decreased by 36914,so profit booking happened on longs carried by FII in August Series.

3. NS closed at 5259 after making the low of ,,

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Swing Calls:Hindalco Industries,Hindustan Unilever and IDFC

Faith in your system = Belief through back testing + Experience of winning with it for years
Whether  any individual trade is a winner or loser should not influence your faith in your system and trading method. You should trade in a way that each trade is just one trade out of the next 100. Much of emotional trading can be overcome when you do not have doubts about your method. When you hold an almost religious fervor over believing in your method, system, risk management, and your own discipline you will overcome many of the emotional problems that arise in the heat of action during a live market.

Hindalco Industries

Hindalco has been in downtrend from past 125 to 102 levels in 14 trading sessions.Formed a double bottom at 102.3 so till 102.3 is not broken relief rally can emerge.

Buy above 104 Tgt...

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Nifty Weekly Chart Analysis for Week Beginning 03 September

GAAR panel draft report came up yesterday and the changes proposed by Shome panel are market friendly. Read the report by clicking on the link.
Fed chairman at Jack Holes did not disappointed the market by saying QE 3 on cards but did not announced at Jack's Hole meeting. Read the Fed speech by clicking on the link
Indian market GDP came in better than expected at 5.5% so rate cut hope have again diminished. Nifty after 4 week of rise was down 2.4% WoW basis. Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty hourly charts is seen the convergence of three trend lines and close below the 50 Hour SMA.Positive divergence has started emerging in Hourly charts, close above 5265 on hourly basis...

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