FII F&O Analysis for August Month

• FIIs sold 5261 contracts of Index Future (22560 Contracts were sold and 17299 fresh shorts were entered into system) worth 1132 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 5261 contracts. So as per data analysis, FII are exiting longs and entering fresh shorts in market. Golden Rules for Traders trading based on Chart/ Chart Pattern

Nifty continued with its downtrend, falling for 6 consecutive day,Nifty


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Golden Rules for Chart Traders

Rule 1 - If you cannot see trends and patterns almost instantly when you look at a chart then they are not there. The longer you stare, the more your brain will try to apply order where there is none.
If you have to justify exceptions, stray data points and conflicting evidence then it is safe to say the market is not showing you what you think it is.
Rule 2 – If you cannot figure out if something is bullish or bearish after three indicators then move on. The more studies you apply to any chart the more likely one of them will say “something.” That something is probably not correct.
When I look at a chart and cannot form an opinion after applying three or four different types of indicators – volume, momentum, trend, even Fibonacci – I  must conclude that the market has not decided what it wants to do at that time. Who am I to tell it what it thinks?
Rule 3 – You can torture a chart to say anything you want.

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Nifty trades below 200 DMA, FII Data analysis

• FIIs sold 29492 Index Future worth 858 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 21814 contracts.FII's went for fresh shorting in Nifty Futures and in Bank Nifty futures. The Huge Secret for Successful trading

Nifty closed below its 200 DMA yesterday and today we saw the follow up down move, after RBI Policy came as per market expectation and we saw the resumption i 



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Stock Trading Charts: Airtel,JSW Steel and Chambal Fertilizers

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel stock has been perfectly trading in its Fibo Fan support and resistance on daily charts.Positional traders should wait for close above 343 for positional longs and shorter should wait for close below 320.

Buy above 324 Tgt..

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The Principles of Successful Trading

Over many years of trading, I've found certain principles to be true. Understanding and using basic principles provides an anchor of sanity when trading in a crazy world. Whenever I find myself under stress, questioning my judgment or my ability to trade successfully, I pull out these basic trading principles and review them.
Don't Try to Predict the Future
When I started trading I used to think that there were experts and geniuses out there who knew what was going to happen in the markets. I thought that these traders and market gurus were successful because they had figured out how to predict the markets. The hard truth about trading is Predict and Perish. As a trader I will make money

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Stock Technical Analysis:DR REDDY,FT and JSPL

DR REDDY

DRL stock on daily chart is trading near its Fibo Fan support and any close below 2205 will drag stock to 2100 and 1974 in short term. Able to close above 2207 stock can rocket back to 2351 odd levels.

Buy above 2240 Tgt..

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Nifty and Bank Nifty trading strategy for RBI Policy

• FIIs bought 1071 Index Future worth 23 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 4199 contracts.FII's went for short covering in Nifty Futures and in Bank Nifty futures. FII's are going neutral for RBI event. Secret for Successful trading

Nifty closed below its 200 DMA, before the crucial RBI Policy. Nifty opened with a gap down of 30 points , trading was dull throughout the trading sessions but the effect of Three Black crow bearish candlestick pattern was seen today. As discussed in Weekly analysis Nifty Spot till it trades below 5900..

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Secret for Successful trading

Trading requires, the right mindset  for success. You must be confident in your decisions because they are based on cause and effect, not on emotions or opinion. Negative people who are unsure of themselves are not successful in any field. You need faith in yourself and your methods to be able to persevere and not give up before reaching success.
• Having unrealistic expectations in trading will lead to unhappiness and failure, expecting 100% return on capital etc. You have to set realistic expectations so you do not get discouraged easily and quit in any of these areas. You have to be satisfied that the results are worth your effort over the long term. You need to understand what to expect before you begin trading.
• You can risk too much and lose it all in your trading. You have to measure the potential cost of every action. One big trade with too much risk can cost you all your capital.
• Trading is similar:

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Stock Technical Analysis:Rel Cap,IDFC and Allahabad Bank

Reliance Capital

Reliance Capital Stock was unable to cross the Fibo fans and also price got rejected near 200 DMA.Stock has seen a correction till 365 which a very important support level.Any close below 364 will give a swift correction till 343 odd levels. Close above 377 gives short term target of 411.

Buy above 373 Tgt..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis before RBI event.

Sensex after closing at 2.5 Year declined 600 point from high as market participant sold shares after the RBI took additional steps to tighten liquidity to shore up the rupee. Rupee was the only gainer from last week closing at 5 week high.RBI policy on 30 June and Monthly closing at 31 will add more volatility to coming week. Action pack week ahead
Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 6077 Nifty  Nifty achieved all 3 target on  on downside :).

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts forming a..

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Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis before RBI event.

RBI Governor shocked the market participants on 24 July evening with increase in Interest rate to stabilize the rupee, Weekly Trend Deciding level of 10946 achieved the first target on upside  and than collapsed to achieved all weekly target on downside. Cool 600 Points pocked by positional traders in matter of week :). Lets see How Bank Nifty Technical are faring out before crucial RBI Policy.

Expectations from RBI in the Policy Review on July 30, 2013
RBI will be maintaining “Status Quo” in the policy
RBI will be watching the rupee movement closely and stability around 58 to 58.50 will keep the RBI away from taking further short term measures and continue with the recent measures for the next 2-3 months. If rupee is not getting stable around this level the RBI can raise CRR by 50bps. However, the measures taken recently are effective enough to check the volatility in the rupee and policy will be turning up to a “Non Event”

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty on hourly chart  is near the lower end of channel,Holding 10336 bounceback can be expected till 10700 odd levels,

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Why Exit in Trading is very important for traders

Exit from your trading positions is an important quality a succesful traders needs to develop.-The exit is critical to being a successful trader. Let your winners run and your losers run out quickly. Two factors determine your exit, the Target and the Stop loss you have set on entering the trade.
Today was a classic example, for trades who are interacting on Facebook. We has advised on Sell on Yes Bank with  traget of 343. Stock plummeted to 343 today made a low at 343, message was sent to book profit. Though only few traders would have booked profit rest would had held for more lower targets as Greed emotions must have crept it. Stock bounced back heavily and closed around 367, Many traders saw there paper profit coming down drastically.So if you want to be successful trader exit a trade is as important as entering the trade.
We have discussed few points which might help in fixing target and trailing stop loss.

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Stock Technical Analysis:Mcleod Russel,CESC and JSW Energy

Mcleod Russel

Mcleod Russel stock on daily chart is forming a perfect symmetrical triangle, Triangle breakout happens above 289 and breakdown below 275.So watch out for breakout/breakdown move. Positional target for breakout comes at 325 and breakdown comes at 254.

Buy above 283 Tgt..

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Nifty Futures Technicals for August Series

• FIIs bought 11031 Index Future worth 332 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 219456 contracts,Nothing much to read in today's data as FII closed/rollovers their position, Will get more clarity tommrow. Can Retail traders make money in Stock market?

Yesterday we had discussion on channel break and today we saw the follow up down move. Nifty took exact support at 50 DMA, which is a strong support. Any close/trade below 5887 can drag nifty all the way round to 5800 odd levels. Stock specific action was seen in July series and we were able to capture almost 1.95 lakhs on Stock calls which is given in blog in morning,Traders can access the performance here http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/ ..

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What is wrong with India’s economy?

Thought Provoking article
India further eased rules on foreign direct investment in a range of industries in an attempt to boost the economy which grew at its slowest pace in a decade during the 2012-13 financial year. Economic analyst Paranjoy Guha Thakurta explains what ails Asia’s third-largest economy.
For Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the irony could not have been more cruel.
The man who is credited with lifting the country’s economy from the brink of disaster in 1991 as finance minister in PV Narasimha Rao’s government, is today facing a situation which is not very much better.
In fact, in at least two respects – economic inequality and the international exchange rate of the rupee – India’s economy appears to be worse off than where it was two decades earlier.

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Bata,Biocon and Zee Technical Analysis for short term

Bata India

Bata India has been respecting the fibo fans level and stock has broken the 3X8 line of fibo fans with bearish engulfing pattern.Break of 892 can lead to further weakness in stock till 843 odd levels.

Buy above 904 Tgt .

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Nifty Expiry range for July Series

• FIIs bought 15422 Index Future worth 481 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 21702 contracts.FII's went long in Nifty Futures and shorts were added  in Bank Nifty futures. Can Retail traders make money in Stock market?

RBI again surprised the market participants with a renewed efforts to shore up the currency by tightening cash conditions,Stock market loves liquidity and hate any tightening by central banks to suck liquidity,Nifty opened with gap down and we saw and closed below 6000.  As discussed in Weekly analysis

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Can Retail traders make money in Stock market?

Amateur retail traders tend to think that the professional trader or Institutional investor have some sort of secret knowledge/system that enables them to make huge profit in trading. However, the difference between a retail traders trying to make consistent profit  and a professional traders zeros down to the trading mindset and trading psychology.The difference between success and failure for a trader is wafer thin, Lets elaborate with an example
Let us give you an example of what we mean. A relatively new retail trader is given a profitable trading system having a trading  strategy with proper stop loss and target and the trading system  delivers an average success rate of 60%. The retail trader is exited that he  has finally found something that will ensure his success. Over the

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Stock Trading Charts:Hero Moto,Yes Bank and Cairn India

Hero Moto

Hero Moto stock has entered in crucial resistance range of 1809-1830. Unable to cross the range can see stock pullback to 1741 1700 odd levels.Any close above 1830 stock will rocket back to 1900 odd levels.

Buy above 1791 Tgt..

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Nifty closed at 2.5 Year high,FII Data Analysis

• FIIs bought 33796 Index Future worth 1030 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 69450 contracts.FII's went long in Nifty Futures and shorts were covered  in Bank Nifty futures. Are you suffering from Fear of losing in Trading?

Nifty closed at 2.5 Year high today, Nifty opened with a gap ..


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Are you suffering from Fear of losing in Trading?

How do you feel when the trade you made went against you and you need to incur loss. The first thought an amateur trader will have is "This was not supposed to happen!". There was no way it could work against you.
After you have booked loss comes the most testing time for trader:Ideally a  trader Should feel relieved, but Instead, most of traders feel remorseful and sad.This trade was supposed to work out and now you’re stuck.Instead of thinking about the next trade your head is not in a good place, you worry that any further trading will have the same negative outcome.  Your mind is completely twisted.  How can you ever make a trade when you are NOW convinced that next one won’t be a winner?
But the fear of being wrong is a natural defensive ...


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Stock Futures Trading:BoB,Century Textile and Shriram Transport

Bank of Baroda

Bank of Baroda stock has been trading in range of 540-595 for past few trading session.Unable to cross 595-597 range tommrow we can again go back to lower end of trading range.

Buy above 595 Tgt..

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Nifty again falls from 6066-6077 range, Technicals as per FII data

• FIIs bought 23640 Index Future worth 714 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 35590 contracts.FII's went long in Nifty Futures and Still maintaining shorts in Bank Nifty futures. Nifty is not doing much moves and we are seeing Stock Specific moves, Today we had minted good money in LT and Asian paint as discussed in morning analysis.

As discussed in Weekly analysis Nifty will find it difficult to move above the down trending trendline and today also made the high of 6064 and turned back. Any move above


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Who is the Worst enemy of trader?

The Bitter truth abut trading enemy is:  You are your own worst enemy in trading, as its you who make the one making decisions and your emotions are usually getting in the way and you are your own worst enemy.
If you’re a trading junkie, you’re going to be reading a lot of books, taking a lot of courses and seminars and you’re going to learn a lot of the technical side of things, and when I say ‘technical’, I’m talking about technical analysis, but not just technical analysis, I’m talking about other technical aspects of learning something.  In the end, you’re going to constantly end up shooting yourself in the foot because you are your own worst enemy and you haven’t learned to master your own trading psychology, yet.
In layman language trading psychology means

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Technical Calls:LT,Asian Paint and ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank

ICICI has broken its medium term trendline on Weekly charts, which is a bearish indication. Positional traders should look for close below 953, which gives short term target of 932 and 898.

Buy above 968 Tgt..

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Interview with Jim Rogers

Fusion MarketSite was fortunate to interview Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Legendary investor, author and world traveler, Jim is one of the world’s most admired and respected investors in the agriculture, metals and mining, and energy sectors.
Rogers and Soros founded the Quantum Fund in 1973; the portfolio gained 4200% over the following 10 years. In 1980, Rogers decided to “retire” and spent some time traveling on a motorcycle around the world, the first of many sabbaticals. From 1990 – 1992, Rogers traveled over 100,000 miles on his motorcycle across six continents, a trip which ended up in the Guinness Book of World Records. Rogers presciently launched the Rogers International Commodities Index in 1998, in advance of the decade-long rally in commodities. He and his wife Paige Parker left on another journey, in a custom-made Mercedes, January 1, 1999, covering 245,000 kilometers and 116 countries over the ensuing 3 years.
In December 2007, Rogers moved to..

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Nifty Weekly Forecast for July Expiry

It was another Topsy turfy show by the market last week. RBI surprise with increase in interest rate 130 points gap down and slow and steady recovery in later half of week .The benchmarks held on to higher levels and moved in a tight range even as the swirl of negatives led by weak rupee and deteriorating macro numbers did their best to dislodge them.
Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 6028 Nifty  Nifty achieved 1 target on  on upside, Lower targets were done by gap down but it was not a tradeable move.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts trading in a channel and upper end of channel comes at ..


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Bank Nifty Weekly Technical for July 2013 Expiry

RBI Governor shocked the market participants on Monday evening with increase in Interest rate to stabilize the rupee. Weekly Trend Deciding level of 11792 High made was 11812 and than collapsed to achieved all weekly target. Cool 600 Points pocked by positional traders in matter of 2 days :). Lets see How Bank Nifty Technical are faring out for expiry week.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty on hourly chart after sharp fall last week is entering in a trading range of 11264-10850.

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Nifty consolidates with Bullish Bias, FII FnO Analysis

• FIIs bought 16653 Index Future worth 511 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 14397 contracts.FII's went long in Nifty Futures and Still maintaing shorts in Bank Nifty futures. Many traders are facing dilemma  of long in Nifty and Short in bank Nifty, As a trader we need to trade as per system and go long and short accordingly .

Nifty Opened Gap up consolidated..


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How to Increase Trading Success

•  Managing the risk of ruin.Do not risk so much on any one trade that 10 losing trades in a row will destroy your account. risking 1% to 2% of your trading capital per trade  is a great baseline for eliminating the risk of ruin.When you do intraday trades or positional trades keep an eagle eye on your stop loss. Before entering a trade have a clear SL defined and when it gets triggered just exit without giving second thought. Taking loss no one likes but you are in such a business where taking loss is part and parcel of your trading journey.

•  Only trade with a positive risk/reward ratio.Only take trades where your possible reward is at least two or three times the amount of capital you are risking in the trade.Never enter a trade blindly because your emotions say so. "How far this stock can go down!!" Well its all Supply and demand concept but we need to make sure than when we see a good RR ratio than only enter trade else just ignore it.

Always trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.Always ..


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Pre-Requite before one start trading

1. Caution.
Excitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) can often persuade you to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a downtrend, a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.
2. Patience.
Wait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the Market and observe from the sidelines.
3. Conviction.
Have the courage of your convictions: Take steps to

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Equity Trading calls:Reliance,Federal Bank and Baja Auto

Reliance

Reliance after breaking out of its Flag pattern has shown 4% rally and formed a DOJI pattern yesterday signalling a good move is on the cards.Stock has closed above its congestion zone of 903 and can see an upmove till 950 odd levels.

Buy above 921 Tgt..

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Bulls close Nifty above last swing high of 6030

Nifty Opened Gap up consolidated and saw did gap filling, and the effect of DOJI candle was seen with nifty closing well above the last swing high of 6030. Nifty 3 days before had a fall due to RBI rate hike and 3 days after that we are trading almost at same level. This

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Trading Psychology Quotes

Psychology matters more to trading or investing than perhaps any other income-producing activity. Here are some quotable quotes from some well known industry participants highlighting that reality…
Anyone who claims to be intrigued by the “intellectual challenge of the markets” is not a trader. The markets are as intellectually challenging as a fistfight. Ultimately, trading is an exercise in self-mastery and endurance.
Ralph Vince (money management expert)
The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.
Victor Sperandeo (master Wall St trader)
Just remember, without discipline, a clear strategy..

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TCS,Kotak Bank and Axis Bank Intraday,Positional levels

TCS

TCS will be coming with its results on Tomorrow evening. Stock has been on dream rally in spite of rupee falling from the high of 61.Stock made a fresh high of 1685 today. Negative divergence can be seen in RSI,Stoch. TCS is also approaching its Gann Fan resistance of 1716. Positional traders keep an eye of 1686 on closing basis, Close above 1686 gives target of 1716 and 1741 in short term.

Buy above 1686 Tgt..

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Nifty rises, Bank Nifty crashes,How to trade in uncertain times

• FIIs bought 6778 Index Future worth 220 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 14986 contracts.FII again went  Longs of Nifty Futures. Ben Bernake speech is out and here are the highlights of Speech which world markets are watching.

*BERNANKE SAYS PACE OF BOND PURCHASES NOT `ON A PRESET COURSE..


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Good traders and Bad Traders

Good traders are able to identify opportunities in the market, plan trades, execute trades, and manage trades at a reasonable level. A good trader identifies the opportunity, plans the trade, and executes the trade. He takes his losses with discipline. One might think that Bad traders are similar to good traders but just better. The reality is that Bad traders are distinctly different from good traders. The difference is not merely a difference in measure but a difference in kind.
Bad trading is actually much closer to gambling. One of the key differences between Bad trading and good trading is that Bad traders don’t just play the odds: Bad traders play the unknown. The market simply isn’t predictable enough – enough of the time — to allow for the type of returns that Bad traders seek. So, Bad traders are..

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IndusInd,HCL Tech and Jubilant Food Technical Analysis

IndusInd Bank

IndusInd bank saw an 8% fall yesterday falling near its short term rising trendline and its 100 DMA also.Breaking of support of 461 and closing below it .Stock can see a pullback till 432 in short term.

Buy above 473 Tgt..

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Nifty recovers from 5900 after RBI shocker, Will it rally further?

• FIIs sold  9277 Index Future worth 264 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 5265 contracts.FII booked profit in Longs of Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, No shorts were taken.Notable Quotes from Market Wizards

Nifty Opened Gap down of 100 points after RBI decision in hiking interest rates to save rupee. Nifty downfall gave us an opportunity to enter longs as per our Price Action Strategy.

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Notable Quotes from Market Wizards

Few Important quotes which can keep you going into this amazing field of trading:
Tony Saliba
“How do you lose money? It is either bad day trading or a losing position. If it’s a bad position that is the problem, then you should just get out of it.”
“Clear thinking, ability to stay focused, and extreme discipline. Discipline is number one: Take a theory and stick with it. But you also have to be open-minded enough to switch tracks if you feel that your theory has been proven wrong. You have to be able to say, “My method worked for this type of market, but we are not in that type of market anymore.”
“Until recently ..

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Technical Analysis:Tata Steel,Tata Motors and Tata Global

Tata Steel

Tata Steel has been falling like 9 pins,stock has been a worst performer in Nifty 50. Stock is trading a crucial Fibo number of 254. Any close below it on closing basis can see stock pulling back to 233 odd levels,Holding 254 can see a bounceback till 288 odd levels.

Buy above 261 Tgt..

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Nifty Technical Analysis after 200 point rally

• FIIs sold  7187 Index Future worth 215 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 23201 contracts.FII continued holding Longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures.Traders Need Game Plan to trade profitably

Nifty technical charts is shown below, after breaking out of its trading range at 5920 has been on a continuously rising, and also closed above our Weekly Trend Deciding level of 6028. Traders holding longs as per..

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How Bernanke Manipulates the Markets

Question: How do you make stocks and bonds rise in price at the same time and increase the wealth of the investor class?
Answer: You declare your intent to buy $85 billion of  and mortgages every month for a considerably extended period as a way to maintain the lowest rates of interest in recent history.
Question: How do you drive the price of stocks and bonds lower at the same time, reducing the wealth of the investor class, and threatening the housing recovery?
Answer: You announce your intention to introduce tapering and reduce the amount of bonds and mortgages you are buying every month, with the intent of ultimately ceasing such purchases completely at some uncertain date in the future.
Question: How do you correct(reverse) the intent to begin phasing out quantitative easing in the light of stock and bond markets reacting in an overly negative manner that threatens the economic recovery?
Answer: You announce that you may indeed reduce the dollar amount ..

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Stock Trading:Tech M, SBI and Maruti

Maruti

Maruti has broken below its symmetrical triangle, 200 dma and Gann number of 1453,suggesting weakness in short term. Unable to close above 1453 in next 2 days gives short term target of 1364

Buy above 1464 Tgt..

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Bank Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty on hourly chart is showing a range contraction,and unable to close above 11750 can pull it back to lower end of trading range.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty has been under performing nifty and still trading below its medium and

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

Nifty was in sideways zone in better half of the week and Fed minutes released on Wednesday night changed the course of world market and Indian market also celebrated with a huge gap up of 100 points on Thursday. Friday turned out to be quite an eventful one for the market. Infosys managed to prop market sentiment with better-than-expected June quarter earnings. The most interesting aspect was that the key economic data were released after market hours on Friday and the data wasn't too encouraging.
Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5857 Nifty  Nifty achieved 3 target on  on upside after opening gap up above our trend changer level of 5857. Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in coming week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is forming a..


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Learn to Conquer the Fear while trading

Emotions have no place in trading,specially for day traders as their holding period is for few hours only. Most of traders are searching for Magic Indicator or Holy Grail which will lead the desired results and will never cause any loss to them. But in Reality No matter what technical indicator or stock trading system that trader used, results is always the  losses. So where is the real problem It lies in Psyche of trader.

Review Stock Trading Emotions

You will face strong resistance internally from yourself when you take your first step to creating a larger vision for your stock trading. This means you will need to let go of your bad habits and take a leap of faith and do what is required to reach your goals. I have seen many trader’s who psyche themselves up and temporarily follow their stock trading vision. The problem arises when trader’s experience the emotions of losing; many tend to lower their expectations and go back into their shell, going back to what they are used to. They start reverting back to old habits and going back to square one again.
Some trader’s try..

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How to trade intraday in Stock Market

90% of Intraday Trades are losers, Intraday trading without a proper plan and trading system is equivalent to gambling which most of traders get indulged into. Before betting your hard earned money to earn quick returns its always better to know and understand the  the fundamentals of intraday trading, if you hope to make money consistently in the market. As i have discussed in my past post  the importance of trading psychology, today we will focus on essentials traits required to do Intraday trading successfully.

1. Have Intraday Trading Strategy 

Whether you do Business,Job you will always have a plan for accomplishing certain task, You will not blindly trade based on your intuition. Same applies to Intraday trading, You need to have a trading system which can help you to generate a trading plan which will help you in finding the best possible buy or sell price of your shares in today’s market and what will be the target price. You do not have to swayed away by wild swing in the Stocks and let your emotions overpower you.Always have an EXIT strategy.

2. Select and Trade the Right Stocks

Always trade in liquid stocks like SBI, ONGC..

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Trading Calls:RIL,M&M and BOB

Reliance

Reliance trading in its Flag pattern, Took resistance at upper end 889 and lower end at 840 where it gave a bounceback. So RIL also trading in a range trade.

Buy above 869 Tgt..

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Nifty Continues its sideways mode,frustrating traders

• FIIs sold  5937 Index Future worth 172 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 2653 contracts.FII again booked profit in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures.Traders Need Game Plan to trade profitably

Nifty again opened with gap up but today the story was different it consolidated almost whole day and than corrected almost 50 points in second half of session.So another day of sideways action continues. I have shown the Nifty Spot chart..

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Traders Need Game Plan to trade profitably

All successful traders have one common, yet very important ingredient in their trading methodologies: a game plan.

 “Many traders and investors go through their sometimes very short investing lives planning trades they never execute and executing trades they never plan.”

“Experience has proven that success follows the wise trader/investor who identifies an effective strategy, and has the discipline necessary to carry it out,”

There are two key elements that distinguish the successful trader from the unfortunate majority: strategy and discipline.Many traders take positions “based on impulse, hunch, or what they read from a newsletter--instead of reason--and then wait to get lucky. They have not learned or probably even thought about the fact that even the very best traders consider themselves fortunate to be right on most trades, or even to make significant profits during most years.”“If the trader will .


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Positional Calls:Infy,SunPharma and United Spirits

Infosys

Infosys is coming with its results tommrow before market opens,Stock has a bad history of opening 10+% gap up or gap down. Stock is approaching its higher end of trendline and if unable to cross and close above 2584 on closing basis stock can fall all its way upto 2351. Any close above 2584 gives positional target of 2817. Traders who are taking positions in futures today please hedge yourself, as capital preservation is must for any trader than comes profit and loss.

Buy above 2514 Tgt ..

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Can Nifty give Breakout after range contraction?

• FIIs bought 11527 Index Future worth 339 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 13691 contracts.FII again initiated longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures.All you want to know about LIX 15 Index launched by NSE

Nifty opened with gap up continued with its rally, got resistance at supply zone of 5867,What we are witnessing now is range development, sideways move by market after big downside and swift rally...


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All you want to know about LIX 15 Index launched by NSE

National Stock Exchange (NSE) launched 'LIX 15' index, which will be available in the derivatives segment, in a bid to provide exposure to the liquid stocks. The index would be disseminated online, from Monday, July 8, 2013.Currently trading at 2376.
LIX 15 Index is designed to provide exposure to the liquid stocks while making the index easily replicable and tradable. In order to make the index easily replicable and tradable, criteria’s such as minimum turnover ratio and free float market capitalization are applied while selection of stocks. The index constitutes only 15 stocks with maximum weight of single stock capped at 15%.

Market Representation

As on July 01, 2013 the index comprised stocks from 9 different industries.
The total traded value for the last six months ending June 2013 of all index constituents is approximately 22% of the traded value of all stocks in the Cash Segment and 34% of all the stocks in F&O segment on NSE.

Methodology

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Swing Trading Stock Calls:ONGC,Rel Infra and IDFC

ONGC

ONGC broke above its downward falling trendline 322 made a high of 353 on gas pricing news and has been falling sinse than,Stock yesterday closed near its support of 302. Holding the same bounceback can be expected. Positional Longs should be taken on close above 308 only for target of 330, 352.

Buy above 308 Tgt..

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Nifty continues rangebound moves, FII Data Analysis

• FIIs sold 15516 Index Future worth 447 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 19786 contracts.FII booked profit in longs Index Futures.

Nifty opened with gap down continued with its downfall, got support from demand area of 5776,also lower end of our initial range and bounced back. 5750 needs to be watched closely any break below it can take nifty sub 5700 odd levels.What we are witnessing now is ..

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Can rupee touch 65 to a dollar ?

The rupee crossed 61 to a dollar again as discussed in our USD INR Forecast. This should not be surprising given that the demand for dollars is much more than their supply.
So now question lies Can Rupee touch 65 in medium term. Let me answer the question for you talking on both Fundamental and Technical of INR.
The trade deficit for the month of April 2013 had stood at $17.8 billion. If we add this to the trade deficit of $20.1 billion for the month of May 2013, we get a trade deficit of nearly $38 billion for the first two months of the year.  With the way things currently are it is safe to say that the trade deficit for 2013-2014(or the period between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2014) is likely to be similar to that of last year, if not higher.Also the way crude is rising its likely to put more pressure on Fiscal deficit.Indian Government has foreign debt of $172 billion that needs to be repaid during 2013-2014. Also FII which are on selling spree are likely to pull out more money for Equity and Debt market.The foreign investors pulled out investments worth more than Rs 44,000 crore or around $7.53 billion, from the Indian bond and stock markets during the month of June, 2013.
Things are not looking ..

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Technical Calls:RIL,SBI and JSPL

Reliance

Reliance is forming a Flag Pattern which is bullish if we see a follow up move and close above 898. Any close above 898 will propel stock towards 953 odd levels.

Buy above 881 Tgt..

MCX Crude Weekly Technical Analysis

Crude is trading at 3 year high on MCX, With Egypt conflict crude is rising and its a double whammy for INR, as rise in crude prices will increase fiscal deficit.Lets analyze crude technical for coming week.

Crude Mcx Weekly

As per Weekly charts crude has formed a ..

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Nifty Technical Forecast for Week 08-13 July

Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5869 Nifty  Nifty achieved 1 target on downside and another one on upside.We discussed the probability of Nifty trading in sideways zone, forming a range before breaking out or breaking down in particular direction. Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in coming week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts is trading in perfect triangle pattern with support at 5750 and resistance at 5920. 50 HMA has been providng a good support in correction.

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Gold MCX Weekly Technical Analysis

Gold Mcx Weekly

Gold MCX  Weekly chart is forming a falling wedge formation with positive divergence..

Gold Weekly

Gold in international market is at 3 year low and holding support of..

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Stock Market Is King

If you are a disciplined, follow the rules trader, then I am sure you are familiar with the many and various ways the stock market can play tricks on you.  For instance, a disciplined, technical trader will adhere to a particular strategy based on current market conditions.  In so doing, trades are assessed and entered based on specific criteria, usually by combining mechanical and discretionary means.
Technical traders base their current trade decisions on past price action, noting distinct historical patterns that have the possibility of replication.  However, the outcome of two strategically similar trades are never exactly alike if for no other reason than those trading a specific stock now are not the same ones who traded it two months, or even two weeks or two days previous.  The elements of uncertainty (e.g., changes in sentiment and differences of opinion) exert such an influence on stock prices that exact replication is impossible.  Therefore, the market enjoys a “King Jester” status.
The market is king.  We have..

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Traders Success Model

Just a reminder – The Most Important Part of the Trader Success Model – YOU
While You are trading or planing to take a trade, It YOU from making a trade plan till trade execution irrespective of profit and loss.Many traders gives excuses like Market is bad so we lost money , Do remember market is always right its YOU where faults lies into.
Surprised, you really shouldn’t be as you are the one writing your own trading story, so the big question is;

• Do you really want to be a trader?
• Do you have ability to become a trader, means thinking I want to be trader will nt work out, Do you have a concrete plan ?
• How much do you believe in your ability to get there?

My mentor once told me the below lines which are etched in my Mind as if he told me 5 minutes before.

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Technical Analysis:HCL Tech,CESC and Tata Motors

HCL Tech

HCL Tech approaching its resistance of 805-810 odd levels. Unable to cross them can lead to pullback towards its rissing trendline.

Buy above 802 Tgt..

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Nifty moves in sideways range, FII F&O Analysis

• FIIs bought 660 Index Future worth 18 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 2648 contracts.FII booked profit in Index Futures.

Nifty opened with gap up filled the gap in morning and continued with its rally but was unable to breach and close above 5860. 5750 needs to be watched closely any break below it can take nifty..

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Stock Technical Forecast:SBI,IDFC and Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto after breaking out of its trendline crossover zone,formed 3 DOJI pattern suggesting an explosive move is round the corner.

Buy above 1893 Tgt..

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Nifty near crucial 5750, FII FnO Analysis

• FIIs sold 24453 Index Future worth 706 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 5757 contracts.FII have again started shorting Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.

Nifty gave a move as discussed  but with a gap down..

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Nifty forms Inside Day pattern, FII Derivative Analysis

• FIIs sold 5253 Index Future worth 154 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 4685 contracts.FII has booked profit in long after 250 points rally.

• Nifty consolidated today in small range and took support  at 50% retracement, forming an Inside Day and NR7 pattern . So expect some good moves in next 2 day...

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Nifty continue its Rally,FII Derivative Analysis

• FIIs bought 3065 Index Future worth 89 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 34391 contracts.FII has exited most of there shorts on expiry and went long on 28 June which was also monthly closing. As i have discussed in Last analysis on Thursday addition on 6000 CE needs to be looked closely and we got our answer in just 3 days :)

Nifty continued with its rally,


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