Nifty50 Weekly technical anaylysis

Nifty 50 Daily Charts Lower High and Lower Bottom

Nifty is forming Lower Highs and Lower Bottom.My immediate tgt will be 2500 Nifty as can be inferred from the charts

L&T - What is the satyam behind this stake hike?

he big news in the markets right now is undoubtedly L&T hiking its stake in Satyam Computers to 12% and stating that it is open to hiking it further to even 15% soon. There is major concern on the streets about how this would affect the core business of L&T. As one market punter put it succinctly, “don’t know why L&T is getting into this jhamela?” Not surprisingly, the stock touched a new low at Rs.611 on this news but soon bounced back, yet investors continue to remain jittery on the counter.



Yes, the perception on the street right now is that this move by L&T is not a very smart one and everyone seems to be questioning the logic behind L&T getting into this mess known as Satyam. But then if one looks at things logically, if this is about the growth of L&T Infotech, then this is surely a good thing. The kind of horizontal and vertical growth which would come to L&T Infotech could catapult it into the big league immediately, which under normal circumstances would be difficult to achieve.



The concern is that this “diversion” could drain the company. Well, that is unlikely to happen as L&T is too large. Unlike before, L&T is no longer undecipherable. After the realignment of business into divisions – Engineering & Construction Projects (E&C), Heavy Engineering (HED), Engineering Construction & Contracts (ECC), Electrical & Electronics (EBG), Machinery & Industrial Products (MIPD) and IT; it is easier to get a pulse on the company. Each division is a profit making unit and hence it makes sense to run each of them like a separate unit.



Another worry on the street is that with L&T making its intentions clear about being open to hiking its stake in Satyam to even 15%, there is now fear that this might trigger off an open offer. Under existing rules, any potential acquirer with a 15% stake in a target company is required to make an open offer to other shareholders to buy another 20% at not less than the average six-month a stock price. L&T is now pleading with SEBI to make an exception to this rule here as it would have to pay a price much higher than Satyam’s current share price if the rule is followed.



The average acquisition price for L&T’s 12.04% stake in Satyam is at Rs 80 a share. The expectation is that L&T is probably looking at an open offer price of about Rs 50 per share. This is surely much less than the price it would have to pay if SEBI’s open offer rules are enforced. As per the rule, the open offer price would not be less than the average stock price of Satyam for the past six months.



There are two possibilities now – either L&T would not hike its stake till 15% thus culling the entire issue of an open offer or SEBI would make an exception here as this is completely within its power to do so. What is sure though is that the Board of L&T will meet on the 30th Jan for consideration of the third quarter results. So maybe we will see some announcements coming in at that point of time. Yes, what is also sure is that L&T, irrespective of the open offer, would see a place on the Board of Satyam.



This story of L&T and Satyam is indeed getting more and more intriguing, better than the soaps that are being dished out on the idiot box!

Nifty 50 Weekly Outlook and Few Trading Ideas

Hi all

Happy Republic Day to all

Hope u all njoyed Long weekend.

Nifty has Closed below 2700 which was considered very crucial support.Now we are in a very precarious situation,If news on global front continue to be negative we can see levels of 2500 Nifty.

Please refer to the chart for my observation.So it's better to exit on rallies,Upside capped to 2830

Stock Specific

LT can see a bounce till 675 in 2-3 days as it is in Highly Over sold zone.

Reliance now has support at 1120 and 1072 and resitance at 1187.

SBIN has posted good 3 Quater results can see a rally till 1100 Support is at 1011

Bank of india sell at cmp tgt 208 sl 243

Essar oil sell at cmp tgt 64 and sl 73

Ou SMS calls are also rocking Satyam gave us excellent return from 26 to almost 40 and rally will continue on Tuesday also

Unitech sl is hit and one should exit out of that.

Regards
Bramesh
9985711341

Nifty Weekly 27-30Jan Technical Picture

Nifty 50 weekly outlook and few Stock trading ideas

Hi all

Hope you all had Rocking week.Now coming is week is very interesting from the perspective of Results as Index Heavy Weight will come up with there results (Reliance HUL Rcom)

Nifty is facing strong Resistance at 2860 and once it crosses that we can see 3k Levels.Support comes at 2700 if that breaks we can see easily see 2640 and


Stock Specific Ideas

Reliance:Stock showing good strength can see 1252 and 1287 Support comes at 1161 and 1104

LT has support at 701 and 686 if it sustains these levels can see 731 745 and 772 Levels

ADLABS FILMS BUY IF BREAKS 179 tgt 186 and 190 sl 169

AbiralNuvo stocks is facing resistance at 555 and support at 732 if it breaks above 555 levels cab easily see 565 and 585 levels

ONGC has support at 606 and now faces resistance at 669,680 and 691.

M&M above 325 can touch 345 sl 313

Keep a default Sl of 1% and keep trail your SL's

Happy Trading to all

One request to all.Please post ur comments as that will help me to improve my services to you all.


Regards,
Bramesh

Nifty 50 Weekly Technical View 19-23 Jan

Click on Image to enlarge

NIfty 50 Resitance at 2770 and 2830

Market has opened gap down. On the daily charts, Triangle pattern has formed in nifty and has support around 2700.

ABAN is highly oversold zone can see a very can see good bounce support at 574 and 557

LIC Housing Finance can see 250 and 256.5

Rel Capital now faces resitance at 424 can see a resistance at 447

BHARTI AIRTEL BUY IF BREAKS 615 for a tgt of 630 SL 607

Buying accepted in TataMotor above 160

Nifty 50 showing Pullback can see 2900

Hi all

Nifty after going down for almost 5 days in a trough has shown a pullback and closed above 2830 which was crucial today.

Weekly calls archived there tgts.Hope some would have made money

Now resistance is coming at 2864 where 5 EMA Lies

Rel Capital is formed double bottom around 400 levels and gave good bounce
400 is a level needs to be watched for rel capital if this rally sustains we can see 457 and 474 Levels else 370 on cards

LT is looking ripe for a bounce till 760 sl 860

Few Trading Ideas

Tata Steel
The long-term charts are suggesting weakness as it struggled to
breakout and close above its multiple resistance levels as shown in
the chart above.
The daily RSI is moving in line with the prices. A fall below Rs210
levels will see the stock entering a fresh intermediate downtrend for
target of Rs190 levels.
The Rs245 levels appear to be a strong resistance levels for the
next few weeks. Any pullback should be used to exit long holdings.
Aggressive traders can sell at current levels and on rallies to Rs225
with a stop loss of Rs250 for a target of Rs190 and Rs180.

Kotak Bank

traders to sell the stock at current levels and on pull
back to resistance of Rs360 levels with stop loss of Rs370 levels for
targets of Rs315 and Rs300.


Essar Oil has shown a traingle breakout Can be sold at cmp SL 81 tgt 73,70

Nifty 50 12-16 Jan Weekly view

SATYAM – ONE BIG LIE!

The shocking news for the day was Ramalinga Raju of Satyam Computers finally tendering in his resignation. But more shocking than his resignation were the revelations he made about the balance sheet. If we thought that the Maytas imbroglio was one big scam, then the revelations made in the balance sheet shocked everyone into a stunned silence. Never ever in the history of India Inc have we witnessed a scam of this magnitude. And what makes it all the more baffling is that Raju has been misleading the stock exchanges, the authorities, the shareholders and the entire country.



This is not one crooked stockbroker but the promoter of one of the biggest IT Company of India. And Raju has stated categorically in his confession that the other members of the Board were unaware of the balance sheet frauds and the cooking up of the entire numbers. Is that also really possible? So what exactly is the purpose of the independent director? Surely, merely Raju stating that they were unaware does not shift the pointer of suspicion from the Directors. So did Vinod Dham have a whiff of this, which is why he resigned earlier? Clearly, what Raju has done is take the entire blame on himself and thus facilitated the criminal prosecution process. Raju’s parting kind deed? Satyam is listed on the Nasdaq too and hence Raju will have to send his confession letter to SEC in USA and then await prosecution there too.



Yet what about the auditors? That is the first thing, which comes to mind – how did the auditors allow this to happen? What is the faith on these auditors? The balance sheet as on 31st March 2008 shows a Fixed Deposit of Rs.4,502 crore. So the question which arises is how come Raju has stated in his confession that Rs.1,230 crore was arranged to Satyam, which is not reflected in its books, to keep Satyam's operations running? So this means that Raju has clubbed his personal accounts with the books of Satyam. What could have happened is that Raju would have borrowed cash on his personal basis, from his known sources based on his reputation. And this he has shown as cash balance in the company. How come the auditors did not provide details of this and did they really check the veracity of this when they signed having earned in business the dotted line and approved the accounts of March 2008?



Time and again, over the last one-year, the ilk’s of rating agencies, auditors have proved that they too are no better than the scam brokers. So if we are talking about criminal prosecution on Raju with 10 years imprisonment, the auditors are also a part of this scam and they too need to bring to the books. Auditors of Satyam have to be punished or else the already battered trust of the investors will further get trampled. Do the auditors just sign on the dotted line and do not really conduct an investigation? If the auditors were clueless while the promoters were cooking up books, what exactly is this job? A fraud of this magnitude could not have happened without the knowledge of the auditors, for quarter after quarter, there is just no way that the auditors would just not have been able to detect the fraud. You can fool everyone once but not everyone every time.



This is going to have major ramifications on the entire Indian corporate world, more so for the IT companies. If the top most IT company can resort to fraud, what can one even say about those in the mid and small rung? This will also in the immediate future cast a scanner of doubt over all the IT companies. But this is sure to have an impact on the FIIs and FDI coming to India. A scam in USA is still considered workable but if it happens in an emerging economy like India, it is just not taken. There is always the doubt that whether those responsible would ever be held responsible. We being Indians, our own faith has been shaken, then surely for the FII sitting in New York, this could be a huge hit on faith. So, whatever the Govt’s monetary and fiscal package tried to do has been nullified by Raju. Confidence in the market is shaken and that is the truth, which we will have to live with for some time.



And what about the 53,000, employees of Satyam? There was no way they could have ever imagined in their wildest dreams that the man, who was touted to be the leader with vision and felt a sense of pride in working with Satyam. But all this has changed overnight. Compared to this fraud, the earlier issue of corporate governance seems like petty crime, it is like comparing a pocket picker to a dacoit. The fate of the 53,000 employees clearly hangs on fire right now and given the first opportunity to exit, they will just scoot. Once the new management comes into the picture, then maybe, it can reassure the employees. But how, is a big question mark.



Huge remedial measures need to be put in place. The Govt has to step in immediately and send a message to the FIIs and FDI investors that this was a one-off occurrence and try to re-instil the faith, back into the system. Also Nasscom, needs to reassure that all companies are not Satyam and there are no series of scams waiting to burst out. Tough task but surely needs to be done. Breaking faith happens in a second but rebuilding it may happen, if it happens, only over a long period of time.



Satyam Computers was the most active stock traded on the bourses today. It has tanked over 80% since the news came in, with investors scrambling to get out of the stock as soon as possible. With no real basis for a valuation of the stock now, one does not know how much low, Satyam would go.

Nifty 50 And Weekly Stocks Outlook

HI all

Hope all of u have rocking weeks as all our calls were bang on Targets which include Sataym also which gave up almost 50%


This week Stimulus Package 2.0 has come which we can see a good opening on Monday Morning,But we all should not get excited by it.

Nifty will face a stiff resistance 3110-3113 Range,Once that is crossed and sustained positions can be taken in Nifty for a target of 3200 and 3250.

Till 2990-3010 Range dips should be used to take longs

Insurance is must so better take 2900 and 2800 puts for all your longs.


Stocks Specific

Reliance above 1306 will move for a tgt of 1354 and 1400 Sl 13220

LT a beneficiary of Stimulus package 2.0 above 837 will fly to 860 and 900


Chambal buy for a tgt of 45 and 48 sl 38.50

Srei Infra has shown a good breakout on charts Buy for a quick 5-10% gain

Moser Baer - Buy on corrective dips to Rs.71 - Rs.65 with a stop loss of Rs.59. Expect the higher range of Rs.80 - Rs.96.

Power Finance Corpn. - Hold long positions with a stop loss of Rs.120. Corrective dips to Rs.132 - Rs.126 can be used for buying with a stop loss of Rs.120. Expect higher range of Rs.141 - Rs.157.


Regards,

Bramesh
09985711341

Nifty 50 05-09 Jan Weekly view

Click on the Image to Enlarge

Govt Unveils Its Second Stimulus For Slowing Economy

Key Highlights

# Govt eases ceiling on ECB borrowings as part of the second stimulus package.

# IIFCL allowed to raise Rs 30,000 crores via tax free bonds.

# Recapitalize PSU banks by Rs 20,000 cr in two years.

# Custom exemption on zinc and ferro alloys has been withdrawn

# NBFCs in infrastructure sector can access ECBs.

# FII investment limit in corporate bonds raised from 6 billion to 15 billion dollars.

# Govt extends tax incentive scheme for exporters up to Dec 31.

# State governmnet allowed to market borrowing of 0.5 per cent of GDP.


India on Friday said it would ease foreign borrowing rules for firms in the infrastructure and real estate sectors, and raised the foreign investment limit in corporate bonds to $15 billion.

As it unveiled a second stimulus package moments after the central bank slashed its main policy rates for a slowing economy, the government said it was preparing to recapitalise state-run banks to the tune of 200 billion rupees ($4.1 billion).

This would take place over the next two years to ensure the banking system does not suffer from capital adequacy constraints.

It allowed the creation of a special financing entity to provide liquidity support against investment grade paper to non-banking finance companies.

The statement said the liquidity potentially available though this window would be 250 billion rupees.

India's economy, Asia's third-biggest, has shown consistent signs of slowing amid the worldwide downturn and high borrowing costs at home, after growing at 9 percent or above for the past three years.

Economists and government advisers and officials expect expansion to moderate to around 7 percent this fiscal year and the central bank's chief said last month that 2009/10 looked like being an even more challenging year.

In early December, Indian authorities cut policy rates, announced $4 billion in extra spending and rolled out a four-percentage point cut in factory gate duties in an attempt to boost flagging activity.

Adding to concerns over stumbling economic growth, data on Thursday showed India's exports contracting 9.9 percent in November from a year earlier, the second consecutive fall after a 12.1 percent dip in October.