Will Nifty Correct after 5400?

Last week was a Big Bang Diwali fireworks happening on Dalal Street. Nifty after 10 Weeks of Consolidation broke the 5169-4720 range and and After breaking the range with support of global market we are trading back to 5400 Levels.
Many of Traders are Struck with shorts around 5150-5200 Levels and were left surprised with 150 Points gap up which happened on Friday. I would like to share Few of my personal observation How to trade during such scenarios where you are left with almost nil alternatives.
1. Always be flexible and open minded during trading you will be doing 1000 of trades and loss in 1 trade is not end of world.
2. Protecting your capital is the first responsibility of trader which means SL is must and in Such Huge gap up best is to Exit position in Loss and than Look forward for next opportunity.
3. Never Indulge in Revenge Trading...


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How to Improve Trading Psychology

As a sportsman(So too as a trader), you've got to realize that it's not the end of the world if you lose one game or more..You should get down to basics and play every point on its merit. The moment you sit down to differentiate the first point from the last, emotions take over. Now, that needs to be detached. Focus is defined by the three "c"s, Courage, Composure and Consistency. When you need to prepare, there should be no distractions whatsoever. This is not a hobby, this is no child's play, it is business. Even a cartwalla has commitment and consistency to make his few rupees. Market gives "huge" unlike any other business and instantly too(No collections/ recoveries here as in any other business) for the one who has a method, discipline to adhere to that winning strategy steadfastly.
Most traders/investors dissipate their energy & concentration on...

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Has Nifty made Breakout above 5169?

When a position is getting ready to stop you out at a loss, do you find yourself bargaining with the name? Do you find your frustration level rising? Do you justify the reason for the move against you, and give it a little more room, only to get stopped out at a bigger loss? Or even worse, perhaps you now find yourself sitting on a double-digit loss, and are frozen with what to do with this now sinking ship? And perhaps the biggest fear for a trader is closing out a position only to see it run back in their favor moments later. Trust me when I say that every trader, seasoned or not, has these moments when stop levels are hit and they hesitate with pulling the trigger.

Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make

Nifty Daily

Global Screen looks deep green as EU leaders at last have come to some decision and Global Markets are up by 2-3%. As its a trading holiday today we have missed the Big Leg up. SGX Nifty (http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.com/) made a high of 5358.


I am a firm believer of Charts discounts ...


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Technical Levels:Nifty,M&M and RIL for Muharat Trading Session

Muhurat trading is the auspicious stock market trading for an hour and Half on Diwali (Deepawali).Today Session is from 4:30-6 PM

The practice of muhurat trading has been retained and observed for ages. It is a ritual the trading community has retained with its past. It is a symbolic ritual which has been performed for years.
As Diwali also marks the beginning of the New Year, it is believed that muhurat trading on this day brings in wealth and prosperity throughout the year.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty did a dramatic end of October Expiry with Diwali Blast by Bulls by breaking ..

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Nifty Expiry Levels for October Series

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty for the Fifth time has been unable to cross and close above 5169 and Still trading between Sideways range of 5010-5162. Will Expiry day will lead to Resolution of trading

range and a Green Diwali to Bears

Lets first look at Which side will have maximum pain in October Series

Nifty High October Series :5162
Nifty Low for October Series:4728
Middle Points of October Series: 4945(5162+4728/2)
Range:434 Points

So Below 4945 Bulls are ...

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Nifty October Expiry Levels

The RBI has thrown everything in its arsenal at stubborn inflation. But prices refuse to budge. The latest food inflation number, based on the wholesale price index, came in 10.6% higher from a year earlier. All eyes are now on the central bank, who meets 25 Oct to decide its latest monetary policy stance. Is 13 the lucky number for the RBI, or will it stop after a dozen rate hikes? 12 rate hikes and a 5% increase in policy rates have done nothing to dampen inflationary pressure. Since it hasn't succeeded at cooling inflation, maybe easing its aggressive stance to not damage growth further may be a better option.
But, since its prime responsibility is to tame inflation, India may not be out of the woods just yet.

We have interesting Expiry ahead as 3 Important events are scheduled ahead:

1. ECB Meet and announcement by France and German FM how will they save the EURO

2. RBI policy meet on 25th Oct to decide the Rate Hike. 25 BPS has been factored in the market.

3. The Spirit of Festival season ahead -- Diwali the Festival of Lights and Mahurat Trading session on 26 OCt

Lets see how Nifty looks technically before these important events.


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Technical Analysis:RIL,ICICI bank,DLF and ABAN

Discipline is directly related to the bottom line of a trader’s account. The Professional Trader keeps a high focus on being disciplined and sticking to his system. He disciplines himself by constantly having the thought of making money and being positive at the end of the month in the forefront of his mind. This way he keeps himself from getting caught in the now emotional moment. He stays on the sidelines when the timing is wrong to enter a trade and always places stops while trading. He moves his stops up as the market moves in his direction, acts as he is supposed to by seizing the right opportunities as they present themselves. He also stays within his risk to reward parameters. 

Reliance Industries

RIL is trading in a parallel channel trading between 811-870 levels.Stock the having the most weightage on Nifty and technically looking strong as now its trading above its 100 DMA.

Stock looks rip to move above....

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Trading Levels for Oct 20:Larsen and Tubro,ICICI bank and Infosys

Trading is not a sprint; it is boxing. The market will beat you up, screw with your head, and do anything it can to defeat you. But when the bell sounds at the end of the twelfth round, you must be standing in the ring in order to win.

Keep it simple. Simple time-tested methods that are well executed will beat fancy complicated method every time.

Nifty is at a crucial junction of  crossing 5169. I have shared the analysis of 3 heavy Weight age Index stocks LT, Infy and ICICI Bank. If these 3 stocks gives a breakout Nifty will cross the crucial hurdle of 5169.
It 4 time Nifty is trying to break 5170 and this time it looks technically strong as still trading above some crucial support levels.

Larsen and Tubro

LT will be coming out of its results on 21 October. Stock is trading near its crucial resistance of ....

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Nifty Bulls Saved 50 SMA

Get To Know Yourself
“The perfect trader-if such a person exists-is methodical and careful about making decisions, extremely disciplined, resilient to setbacks, with a high degree of internal confidence.  He holds strong opinions but is also able to admit quickly when he is wrong, not take it personally, and view it as a learning opportunity rather than a failure.  He understands the value of leaving his ego at the door.  He’s willing and able to trust his gut and place big bets when the opportunity presents itself.  In fact, that pretty well describes the ideal blend of characteristics of any successful person, no matter what he is doing professionally or personally”

Nifty

Above 50 SMA Bulls Exists and Below It Bears Rule from Short term Perceptive. What happened yesterday As discussed in Weekly View  5169 proved to be a resistance Nifty made high of 5162 and gave the much awaited correction.
Yesterday was the Read test of the current upmove and Nifty passed the Litmus test by holding the 50 SMA@5012 made a low of 5011 and today will Open gap up around 5084 filling the yesterday gap with a gap up opening.
Trading above 50 SMA  give the possibility of breaking the Laxman Rekha of ...

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Everybody knows the four cardinal rules of trading, but so few people follow them :-

• Trade with the trend.
• Cut losses short.
• Let profits run.
• Manage risk.

There is a big difference between knowing something and applying it. Most people don’t use what they know.

Voltas

Voltas is moving out of its oversold zone,Took support at down trending trendline making its march further.
Move above 106 will confirm a breakout and it will move towards its 20DMA@111

Buy above 106 Tgt...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week 17-21 October

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart is having 2  gap which are not filled in the current up trend which is 7 days old.

1. Gap 1 from 4827-4861

2. Gap 2 from 4967-4998

Hourly charts are having negative divergence but the daily and weekly charts have moved in uptrend and negating the Hourly time frame. Hourly dips are getting bought as on Friday also when 4957 Low was bought and market moved higher in afternoon session.
5141,5169  will be a important levels to watch as it has been elusive level in previous 2 Uptrend.

Nifty Daily Chart

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Reliance Trading Strategy before it Result on Saturday

Position sizing is the part of your trading system that tells you how many shares or contracts to take per trade.  Poor position sizing is the reason behind almost every instance of account blowouts.  Preservation of capital is the most important concept for those who want to stay in the trading game for the long haul.

Nifty Daily

On Daily charts Nifty is Trading in a Channel and yesterday closed on the near the bottom of the channel. Today Asian market looks week and Nifty will open falt to down by 10 points.First and Most Important Support is 5057 NS,Trading below this will lead to puncture of upside momentum. 
Support will come at previous resistance at ..

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Trading Calls:Reliance,SBI and BHEL

Unsuccessful Traders  would rather lose money than admit they’re wrong. What is the ultimate rationalization of a trader in a losing position? “I’ll get out when I’m even.”
Why is getting out even so important? Because it protects the ego.

To become a winning trader when you are  able to say to yourself , “To hell with my ego, making money is more important.”

BHEL

BHEL is facing resistance at its 50 SMA @342. Move above this will be sharp

Buy above 342 Tgt..

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Bank Nifty and DLF Trading Levels

Don’t spent all your time admiring the fancy tools in the magazine.First learn how to use the basic ones well. It’s not the size of your tools that counts but how you use them.

Keep it simple. Simple time-tested methods that are well executed will beat fancy complicated method every time.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty respects both trendline support and resistance Yesterday Long trading level was 9042 and resistance at trendline. BN made high of 9190 and unable to cross trendline resistance.
Today we will have a gap up opening above the resistance line,..

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Infosys Trading levels before the Results Day

The Q2 Results will be start pouring in from tomorrow officially with the Herald  being done by IT Major Infosys. World markets are on up swing but india will remain immune to it if Infosys does not deliver than street expectation. Rupee rise will be an added advantage for Infy but if there hedging bets have gone for a toss than it can have its negative effect also.
Dollar has strengthen but Euro has weakened   so it will be a net net effect should not be much on bottom line.
Most important thing to note down the commentary of management are they seeing a slowdown and uncertainty in further projects in pipeline.

Infosys Daily

On Technical charts infosys has already rallied from the low of 2180 to 2600 on dollar strength and has been trading in a channel as shown in above chart.

100 DMA@2629 is the main

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Techical Levels:Bank Nifty,MnM and Jubliant Foods

Good trading is not about being right, it’s about trading right. If you want to be successful, you need to think of the long run and ignore the outcomes of individual trades.

Ruin is the risk you should be concerned with the most.It can come like a thief in the night and steal everything if you’re not watching carefully

Jubilant Foods

Jubilant was on its dream run from 527 taking support at its 200 DMA and doubled with making at high of 1021 and after that it had a water fall decline earsing almost 40% in matter of 7 trading session. Its always dangerous to capture a falling knife.

200 DMA was support for stock and now 200 DMA will become resistance.

Buy above 718 Tgt

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Nifty Weekly Technicals for Week Starting 10 October

This Week will be remembered as Week of downgrades

1. It started with Moody's downgrading PSU Behemoth SBI Bank after it has corrected 35% from its High and 12 UK Banks.

2. Fitch Downgrades Spain To Aa- From Aa+, Two Notch Cut, Outlook Negative

3. Fitch Downgrades Italy To A+, Outlook Negative

4. Moody’s Puts Belgium Aa1 Rating Under Downgrade Review

Rating agencies  supposedly the precursory warnings for investors. They are supposed to alert investors about the possible risks to their investment well before it reflects in the asset price. But when the whole world knows that EU countries are in Burden of Debt which is already reflecting in price  after that Rating agencies downgrading them but a question on their ethics of working.
Back in 2008, rating agencies found themselves in an embarrassing position after their best rated securities turned junk with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The billions of dollars in losses to investors came at a time when rating agencies were still struggling to ratify their views. In 2011, the US' credit rating was downgraded when the economy's poor fundamentals were already reflecting in its currency's exchange rate.

What it all suggests is that the rating agencies have done too little of their job, too late.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Its all Gaps which are ruling the Nifty Hourly charts. On Friday Nifty faced resistance at 4922

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Is Nifty Bottom is in Place @4728?

Human emotion is both the source of opportunity in trading and the greatest challenge.
Master it and you will succeed.
Ignore it at your peril.

Nifty Hourly

Lets start from Hourly charts One Big Red Candle did the Whole Damage.. From Morning Nifty kept on trading between 4830-4875. Than came the free fall which led to panic selling as soon as low of 4756 got taken out. I feel we are forming a base around 4700 levels as its the 3 time Nifty has bounced from the level of 4700, On the contrary it makes a case for bears also as Support has been tested for 3 times and next time if selling comes its bound to break down.
I will go with Double Bottom scenario(Bullish Pattern) where Nifty made a slightly higher bottom ..

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Tradingl Calls:Bank Nifty,ICICI bank,DLF and HDIL

Successful Trader cut  losses asap  and by doing so kept them small. Everyone will have its share of bad decisions in his/her trading career and keeping losses small in order to avoid huge losses is the toughest part.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty will be under pressure as whole Bank stocks round the world are in big pressure due to Greece issue.  Citibank down 10% and Morgan Stanley down 7% in US yesterday.
Internals of Bank Nifty ICICI bank,Axis bank have broken or in the process of breaking new swing lows.
Technically speaking BN took support at 9156  trend line from 8917 which was swing low. Break below yesterdays low market is likely to open gap down BN if it breaks 9000 levels than we will see a quick slide till the swing low 8917 or slightly above it.

Sell below 9100 Tgt ..

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Trading Levels:Bharti Airtel,Century Textile and Tata Motors

A common trait among newer traders, or among traders that are not profitable is a need for perfection. With so much noise in the media, blogs, and forums about calling tops and bottoms, one would think it’s a trader’s job to predict such things. Expecting to nail the top or bottom is a recipe for frustration and inconsistent performance.

Bharati Airtel

Bharti Airtel has been in strong uptrend above 378 levels made a top around 348 and after that has been consistently declining. Now stock faces the litmus test as its trading near its crucial support of 378.

Resistance becomes support bharti cases 378 was resistance now it will become support.

Stock is buy on dips till ...

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Nifty Weekly Analysis for Week Starting October 3

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly charts range bound trading is taking place from 4905-5030-4905. Buying Support and Selling at Resistance is the apt stratergy which will work in this market. Always Remember Traders loose money when thet try to take position in "anticipation" of breakout or breakdown and left in a tailspin when market fools them by going in direction opposite to there trade.
Best Strategy Buy near support with 10 Points Sl  if it gets taken out you have to change your position, If not you will end up doing successful trade.
Always manage your Risk before taking a trade.
On Hourly charts Support comes at 4870 where the gap low between 4905-4870. Below 4870 ...

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Manage Your Ego

An avaricious or keen desire for profits is one of the most prevalent causes of failure in speculation. This weakness is general among traders. They desire “just a little more ” profit. If the stock or commodity bought advances, then that’s proof to them that it will advance further and so they hang on. They usually overstay and thus miss their market. If they fail to obtain the top price and it reacts, then they assure or console themselves by the expression: “Oh, it will come back.” It may “come back” but often it does not, and instead, declines to below the purchase price and frequently results in a loss. The same observations apply to a short sale for a further anticipated decline. It is a good policy to be satisfied with a reasonable profit and be willing to leave some for the other fellow. The market is always there and other opportunities for making profits will present themselves while the greedy trader is waiting to get the last eighth.

Greed leads to disaster in another way. A speculator has started in to buy at the inception of a bull movement. He makes money. The more he makes, the more avaricious he becomes as the market moves forward. His confidence in himself increases until he ...

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