Technical Levels for Nifty on GDP Data

Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules.
You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound.
You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.

Nifty Daily

On daily chart Nifty showed a pullback after Monday 3% rally but managed to close above 4800. Till Nifty close above 4800 bulls still have strength left and they can take Nifty to well above 4900 levels.  Today we have all important GDP data and market is factoring in severe slowdown in Indian Economy. Any GDP data below 7%....

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Technical Analysis:RIL,Infy and ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank has been falling relentlessly from highs of 935 to low of 710. Yesterday's session stock showed a good upmove of 4% and breaking out of downward channel.
Stock looks ripe to touch the lower end of falling trendline at 792.
In Bear Market Stock which fall the most are the first one to rise and make a lower low.

Buy above 754 Tgt....

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,HUL and Reliance

You can succeed in trading only if you handle it as a serious intellectual pursuit.
Emotional trading is lethal. To help ensure success, practice defensive money management.
A good trader watches his capital as carefully as a professional scuba diver watches his air supply.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has been trying to close above its lower trendline as shown in above chart.From past 3 days BN has closed above the ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Begining 28 November

As per Weekly Technical Analysis for 9 November (Click on Link) we have discussed the possibility of heading back to 4720 and breaking the levels again with a simple Logic of 200 and 50 DMA. You can read the full post by clicking on above link.

My article for MACD have been published in Futures maz Chicago You can read the post by clicking on the below Link

Trading with MACD(Click on the Link)

Nifty Hourly

Nifty Hourly charts are showing pattern of consolidation after waterfall decline we have witnessed and traded in last 10 trading days. Upside will be seen above 4768 to the upper end of trendline between 4855 on downside break of 4640 will lead to cluster of support zones till 4550 levels. After we have such a waterfall decline there are 2 Scenario possible:
1. Nifty forms a trading range of 200 points ..

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Technical Chart:Shopper Stop,Pantaloon and Bharti Airtel

GOI has approved FDI in retail sector a big move towards liberalization and reform. The government paralyses is coming to an end. All Retails Stocks Like Pantaloon,Shopper Stop will be in focus today.
Cabinet today cleared the bill to increase foreign direct investment to 51% in multi-brand retail and 100% in single brand.
As per Kishore  Biyani India will sees inflows of $8bn in 5-10 years.

Pantaloon

Pantaloon moved up 12%  with huge volumes yesterday and took resistance at its 50 SMA@205.  Traders have bought on speculation that GOI will pass the Bill and it happened. Stock should open ...

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Will November Expiry Favour Bulls or Bears?

Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there.

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make”

Nifty made a new 52 Week Low today at 4641 today and tomorrow we have expiry things can get real scary tomorrow.

Market broke 2010 Low 4675 but today closed above it.. Break of 4675 on closing basis Nifty will fall another 25-30%.. It has happened 3 times before in 94,2000 and 2007 Market broke previous year low and corrected 28.8,23.2 and 37% respectively.

You can look back the charts from 1990 ...

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I simply cut my losses and by doing so kept them small. I’ve had my share of bad decisions in my trading career and keeping losses small in order to avoid huge losses is the toughest part.
Why is that so? From a psychological point of view nobody wants to sell at a loss as in most situations in life making mistakes and admitting them is associated with being a loser. That’s why most people prefer sticking to a losing position. They don’t want to be labeled a loser. So they start hoping their position will turn around and end up being a huge winner. The stock then keeps tanking. Then they hope they will be able to sell for a break even. The stock then goes down even more. That’s when being objective and balanced isn’t possible anymore. Losses have become huge and they are trapped.

Bharti Airtel

Bharti airtel is trading in a perfect channel taking support and resistance at upper and lower end of trendline.Break of 372 can lead airtel back to 343 levels.

Buy above 380 Tgt...

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Technical Analysis:Nifty,Bank Nifty and Infosys

When you put too much of your ego on the line with your money, you may feel great when you win, but on the other hand, you may feel discouraged when you lose. When you allow your ego to enter your trading, you put subtle pressure on yourself to succeed. This added pressure could compel you to make dumb mistakes like holding on to losing trades to avoid hurting your ego. It’s better in the end to take a professional approach to trading marked by objectivity and rationality. Sure, it is necessary to have a passion for what you do, but it is not necessary to get a swelled head.”

Nifty

 This is waterfall decline in Nifty happening from past 9 days, 4720 should be protected in Nifty for today on closing basis.

Break of 4720 will see a impulsive down move till 4675,4610,4565 and 4538.

On Upside if Nifty starts trading above 4805 that would be first sign ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week 21 Nov

Nifty on WoW basis is down 5.5% with a waterfall decline.
Fundamental Factors impacting the fall
European cues and our internal cues high inflation with rising interest rates, policy jam at New Delhi, Rising fiscal deficit and current deficit and Corporate profitability under pressure had led FII to pull out money from India Equities.
The INR has been eroding its value precipitously in recent times,It has seen 14% drop in last 1 year ,most of it coming in last 3 months making it the worst performing currency in Asia.
Decline in Rupee has inflated our import bill also as India is net importer of goods with Oil having the largest portion. This deficit would need to be funded through borrowings or equity investments like FDI. This increasing deficit in turn causes worries for the FII and eventually they pull out Dollars adding pressure on INR. Thus it becomes a vicious cycle difficult to get out of.
Lets have a look on technical factor

Nifty Hourly

Nifty Hourly charts on Friday made a low of 4838 on Friday just a tad above the gap area of...

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Techincal Analysis:Jubilant Food,SBI,BF Utility and Sintex

Nifty after long time made wild and volatile swings accompanied by Heavy volumes. Yesterday 5.54 Lakhs contract were traded in NF and maximum volume came in last half hour where Nifty made a move of 130 points (50 points down and 80 points up) in matter of 30 mins.
The whole game was played by FII as they bought 109703 contacts on Buy side and 142367 contracts on Sell side. These are heavy volumes not seen in recent past.
If one analyses the tick volume data closely 74K contracts got traded at 5055 and 20K contracts were traded at 4999 levels which means resistance for today comes at 5055 and support at 4999.
My advise to all try to trade in low volumes and use trailing stop loss in all your position looking at wild swing coming in Nifty.
For investors this is one of golden time to...

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,ICICI and SBI bank

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success.” – Mark Douglas

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has been under weakness from last week after SBI announced its results. Banks are under pressure coz of slowing economy because of rising interest rates which increase the bad loans.

Bank Nifty is at its crucial support of 9254. Break of same will lead to directly to 9152.

Technically things looks overdone for short term and bounce can be expected in bank nifty if it start trading above ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Starting 14 November

  Discipline - Majority of traders are not disciplined in their approach, else they would not be failing. These failed traders simply hate to hear the word Discipline! As Jack Schwager points out in his book, ‘The New Market Wizards’, “Discipline was probably the most frequent word used by the exceptional traders that I interviewed. Often it was mentioned in an almost apologetic tone: ‘I know you’ve heard this a million times before, but believe me, it’s really important’.”

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly charts Nifty after Opening Gap down at 5158 made an attempt to fill the gap but got resisted at 5198.
Gap between 5212-5198 remains to be filled and mostly should be filled on Monday.
Hourly charts are oversold and bounce back is due which can take us back to 5250-57 on Upside. Breach of ...

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Reason for Global Market collapse,How to trade Nifty now?

World Market throughout the  globe were down between 2-4% today and the shock waves epicenter being ITALY .

Italy’s ten-year bonds and 5 -year bond yields  went  above the 7% level which has marked the point of no return for other countries that required bail-outs.
That suggests that their real worry is that Italy won’t repay them at all.
 Italy is the third-biggest bond market in the world. Banks across Europe have significant exposure to the country’s debt.

To draw an analogy to the 2008 crisis, if Greece was Bear Stearns, then Italy is Europe’s Lehman Brothers.

So what happens now?
The irony is that Italy’s financial situation is not that...

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty and SBI before SBI Result

Every winner needs to master three essential components of trading; a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system and good money management. These essentials are like three legs of a stool – remove one and the stool will fall, together with the person who sits on it. – ALEXANDER ELDER

SBI

SBI is coming out with its results tomorrow and Stock has risen before the results from the low of 1886 to high of 2004 in anticipation of good results.
Only Concern about this rise is volumes, I have mentioned in above chart the rise from 1886 to 2004 has been backed with less volumes which means market participants are not convinced of the upmove and after results only volumes based trade will come.
Stoch has entered overbought region and any bad news and results as per market expectation will also lead to correction in SBI. Surprise results will lead to a rally on upside.
As such we will always trade on levels not on any news.

Buy above 2004...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 09 November

Food inflation rises to nine-month high of 12.21% and after that the Indian Government has done another Petrol Hike by Rs 1.82 which will go ahead and increase fuel inflation also.  This fuel price Hike after Petrol de regulation is burning big holes in pocket of indian consumers and goverment has told in strict sense that Price will not be rolled back.TMC has opposed the fuel price Hike and submitted resignation. Ratcheting up pressure on the government to rollback petrol price hike, MPs of Trinamool Congress, which has threatened to pull out of government, will meet PM tomorrow and this news will be fuel rumors in market and hence trade with caution.

The next week will be truncated week with Holiday on Monday and Thursday so not much commitment should be accepted for traders. Try to exit positions on Intraday basis as  gap ups and gap down can eat away your profits.

Nifty Daily Charts

Nifty has again entered into its trading range from 5200-5326 after the Big breakout above 5170. Nifty has rallied almost 700 points in matter of 17 trading sessions which invites a small correction which we did till 5200 and trading in a range to let the moving averages do the catch up.
As i always suggest the best strategy to trade in ....

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Trading Psychology Edge

1. Control Your Ego

“Everyone wants to feel like a winner. It’s tempting to pat ourselves on the back for making a winning trade, but it’s essential to face the facts: Many times a winning trade is a combination of an astute insight AND being at the right place at the right time. In other words, external circumstances such as plain good luck make you a winner.
When you put too much of your ego on the line with your money, you may feel great when you win, but on the other hand, you may feel discouraged when you lose. When you allow your ego to enter your trading, you put subtle pressure on yourself to succeed. This added pressure could compel you to make dumb mistakes like holding on to losing trades to avoid hurting your ego. It’s better in the end to take a professional approach to trading


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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,Jubilant Food and DLF

Overtrading

There are stock traders who make 150 or more trades in a single day. I am not sure they make a lot of money. I firmly believe that you can make more money by making fewer trades because it will make you focus on only the best of opportunities, and play them with a larger amount of capital so the pay off is better. By being patient and disciplined with the really high probability trades, you can maximize profitability.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is trading at its upper end of down trending line facing resistance 9888 and 9984, and any move above it will make Bank Nifty is 5 figures :)
On Upside first resistance will come at 10080 and Most important resistance

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Technical Charts:LT,M&M and Aban Offshore

What drives stock prices are human reactions. Ironically, the key to successful speculation is to remove our decisions from our emotions. “Without control over your emotions, there is very little chance for profitable success in the stock market.”

Larsen and Tubro

LT is trading in the range of 1429-1267. Stock looks week technically but value buying is emerging at lower levels where stock made a fresh 52 week low at 1267.
Results were good but company has reduced its guidance for coming quarter looking at global uncertainty.
Technically Gap is at 1355-1367 levels,break of..


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Technical Analysis:Nifty,Infy and Biocon after Global Sell off

Greece is back in Lime Light again with the surprise annoucment by its PM PAPANDREOU
GREEKS TO VOTE ON EURO MEMBERSHIP IN REFERENDUM: PAPANDREOU.
Why is this so market un-nerving news reason Being PM has asked the Greeks to vote for the  the austerity measures his government has  taken and Do GREEKS LIKE it or not.

A Poll conducted suggests 60% people are against the Austerity measures and if VOTING outcome is NO Greece will not take the Bailout fund by EU and has to default.

Lets look How Nifty looks technically
On daily charts Nifty is still in uptrend from the rally which started from 5038.

Nifty Daily

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Technical Analysis:Tata Sponge,RIL,ICICI Bank and REC ltd

Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.
 Tata Sponge
Tata Sponge showed a extremely high volume yesterday and made a upmove of 10%. Gap is unfillied in the range of 311-320 as i have said before Gaps provides an excellent trading opportunities.

Buy above 344 Tgt ..

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