Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,RIL and SBIN

Today 30/12/2011 is the last trading day,Once the day gets over try to spend atlesat 1 hour to analyse your trades done throughout the year.

Losses Made -- Learn from them instead waning why the loss happened and promise not to repeat those mistakes again
Gains Made -- Learn from them and try to repeat such trades again.
Learn Assimilate and implement your analyses from next year and Promise yourself you will emerge as a Better trades both intlectually and finaccilly in 2012.
My Best Wishes to every trader and Wishing you all profitable 2012.

Good trading is not about being right, it’s about trading right. If you want to be successful, you need to think of the long run and ignore the outcomes of individual trades.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty holding the downward facing trendline it can arrest the fall and show a decent bounce back.

Buy above 8140 Tgt ..

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Nifty Expiry levels for December 2011 Series

Nifty Hourly

Nifty hourly chart has corrected from the high of 4801 and closed above 4700 yesteday, Today SGX suggests opening near 4700 range. Break of 4682 on Nifty will lead to 4631 levels where next major support lies.

 Nifty Daily

Daily chart nifty has broken the upper channel which gives bearish signal. As i have advocated Nifty is trading in channel from past 3 month as marked in the chart shown above.  Also formation of Higher High


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FII F&O Data analysis for 28 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 27 Dec.


1. FII bought  13,409  Contracts in NF worth 317.32  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 3783 contracts.
2. As NF  was  up  by 38  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with fall  in price means  profit booking in longs but the total contract bought have increased which i am assuming they added to there longs at lower levels as Nifty bounced from crucial support of 4738.
3. FII Buy price was 4721 and FII Sell price was...

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Technical Calls for Intraday:HDFC,Coal India and Sun TV

As traders try to improve performance, the one piece of knowledge that is often overlooked, is self-knowledge. Most traders would benefit by simply focusing on doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t, which sounds obvious, but the reality is that most do just the opposite. Learning to identify which behaviors work and which don’t is not as fun or interesting as learning a new trading strategy or set-up.; and awareness of one’s internal state is just as critical, but that is typically not dealt with.  As a result, most traders focus outward and ignore their inner process. And the way this often plays out for a trader is they trade their emotions and not the market.

Sun TV

Sun TV has closed above 100 DMA for 2 days in a row and approaching the crucial resistance of 300. Close above 300 wll give breakout in medium term

Buy above 300 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 27 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 26 Dec.


1. FII bought  12,404  Contracts in NF worth 272  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 4984 contracts.
2. As NF  was  up  by 68  points  with Open Interest increase by  FII . Rise in OI with Rise  in price means  longs were created by FII .
3. Net Exposure of FII for the December Series is 42,958  contracts which i am assuming are longs. Now this figure will be shocker to hard core bears as doomsday Sayers were predicting a fall till 4300,4100 in Nifty Future in Dec Month.
4. Today rise  was on  volumes of...

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Technical Calls:Bata India,Infosys and Polaris Software

Polaris Software

Polaris Software took support at 114 -115 range which is the lower end of trading zone. Volumes were less than average on a declining day, so which shows lack of interest of traders to break the range.
Bounce Back can be expected as Polaris held its low.

Buy above 116.7 Tgt..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for 2011 December Expiry week

Wishing all Site Readers a Merry Christmas and Happy and Profitable New Year 2012

It's Christmas Eve today and we are almost reaching the close of 2011. From India's perceptive 2011 is the year everyone wants to forget as it was primarily characterized by  prolonged bear market, economic slump,inflation,corruption scams and weak rupee.
Will things change in 2012 for India and World's Perceptive?
In India a State Level election poll will keep the governments busy in wooing people  to vote for them and expect policy log jam at center for the time being. From Stock Market perceptive  Inflation is showing moderation Food Inflation at 3 Years Low, but 13 rate hikes have put the brakes on economic growth. It will take a while before the growth engine starts chugging along at full steam. Stock Markets takes the cues in advance and price in both good and bad news well in advance.
THERE IS ALWAYS DARKNESS BEFORE THE DAWN and we all expect a brighter 2012 which will make us forget the doom and gloom of 2011


Lets jump into the technical of Nifty for last trading week of 2011. On Personal front i expect it to close on a Strong note looking at History of December month on account of Increasing fund flow for US markets,value buying by Indian  Mutual funds and Quarter ending   so NAV adjustment by MF and Hedge funds.
As per Last Week Analysis (Click on Link) we anticipated a relief rally above 4675 and Nifty made a high of 4762 above 4675.

Nifty Hourly

Nifty on Hourly chart was able to close above the hourly trendline support of 

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Perfection and Discipline in trading

Before taking a trade how many times have you thought i will buy at bottom and sell at top.
How many times have you removed your Stoploss after feeding it but removed it once price started coming near Sl.
How many times have you lost all profits earned in a trade and end up being a losser
If you have the above mentioned problems in trading

Reason is need for perfection

A common trait among newer traders, or among traders that are not profitable is a need for ...

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,Reliance,LT and Coal India

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty will continue its upmove and will face resistance at 8585 levels. Move above this will take Bank nifty to8685.Stoch has generated a buy.

Buy above 8430 Tgt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 23 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 22  Dec.


1. FII bought  13,230  Contracts in NF worth 298  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 1020 contracts.
2. As NF  was  up  by 40  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with Rise  in price means  shorts were covered by FII and they have initiated longs also as OI decrease was meagre 1020 contracts
3. Net Exposure of FII for the December Series is 1403 contracts which i am assuming are longs. As FII goes on Holiday from 24 December there commitments towards market has come down considerably.
3. Banks which led the fall for Nifty were the best performers as ...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 22 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 21  Dec.
Yesterday as i mentioned Put premium has declined sharply so put writers are not expecting any major fall and sharp and swift rally can materialize,today we have a 160 Points rally. Read Yesterday's Post(Click on Link)
1. FII bought  66,654  Contracts in NF worth 1494  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing sharply by 49496 contracts.
2. As NF  was  up  by 170  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with fall  in price means huge shorts were covered by FII.
3. Let me share an interesting Observation If we zoom to start of series ie. On 25 Nov NF closed at 

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Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,Bharti Airtel,Reliance Industries

Winning Trader’s Traits

• Calm,Disciplined,Confident,Organized,Excellent recordkeeping,Business like approach,Professional demeanor

Losing Trader’s Traits

• Emotional,Undisciplined,Anxious,Disorganized,No recordkeeping,Wants action & excitement,Amateur demeanor

Now you decide which Traits you are having and which one you need to develop.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty after long time will see green uptick on the screen with 7711 saved for the time being. As shown in above chart 7711 is very important long tern support for bank nifty and not breaking this shows that a rally is offing in abk nifty.

Buy above 7962

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FII F&O Data analysis for 21 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 20  Dec.


1. FII bought  12975  Contracts in NF worth 290 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing by  15933 contracts.
2. As NF  was  down by 70  points  with Open Interest decrease by  FII . Fall in OI with fall  in price means shorts were covered by FII.
3. Capitulation in banking stocks continued and Bank Nifty is down 4.6% in first 2 days of the week.
4. Today fall has an important observation  Fall was lacking...

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Technical Analysis:Tata Motors,Axis bank and IDFC

Tata Motors

Flag Patter formation with repect to lower trendline and formation of higher lows make the stock technically strong and bullish in extreme short term.
Telco has been outperforming Nifty on relative terms.

Buy above 180.2 Tgt 183 and 187

Axis Bank

Axis Bank has  seen waterfall decline in ....


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FII F&O Data analysis for 20 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19  Dec.



1. FII sold  44637  Contracts in NF worth 1006 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by  5829 contracts.
2. As NF  was  down by 21  points  with Open Interest increase by  FII . Rise in OI with fall  in price means shorts were taken.

3. As bank stocks capitulate today with RBI raising concerns of 9 Lakh cores of Bad NPA  and  Yesterday’s Food Security Bill which ..

 

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Technical Analysis:RIL,Bank Nifty and LT

It is important to “follow what the market is currently doing as opposed to following what one might personally think the market should do.” As he said, “Every man has a right to his opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts.”

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has achieved its trendline target of 8120,by making a low of 8127.
Break of 8127 will threaten the break of  coveted 8000 level on Nifty.

Sell below 8120 Tgt...

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Nifty Weekly Techncial Analysis for Week begining 19 Dec

If you have to panic, panic early because in market eventually everyone panics.
Reason: The pain just becomes unbearable and the fear of unknown forces one to get panicked.
Looking at the waterfall decline on Friday sessions the screen is just telling me that may be that’s what seems to be happening as Nifty made a new 52 week low and closed below 4675 which was 2010 low.

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly charts Nifty sold of 200 points in matter of 90 mins which is quiet surprising and disappointing close.RBI has kept rates on Hold and INR came down sharply from highs of 54 but nifty choose to make a new 52 week low. Technical structure of market has been considerably weaken after yesterdays close and took many people by surprise the intensity and rapidity of fall.
But as Traders you should be prepared ...

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Rgds,
Bramesh
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http://www.brameshtechanalysis.com/

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FII F&O Data analysis for 14 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 13 Dec.


1. FII sold  22198  Contracts in NF worth 507 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing by  2130 contracts.
2. FII avg buy was at 4704 and avg sell was at 4672 whih was below todays range of 4731-4840 NF means they played intra trades only.
3. As NF  was  up by 63  points  with Open Interest reduction by  FII . Fall in OI with Rise  in price means shorts got covered on intraday basis.

4. NF total OI was at 1.99 cores with 8 lakh reduction means  shorts got covered from retails and HNI also.

5. For December Series FII have squared off there longs and now fresh shorts were added today tune of .....

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Technical Analysis of VIP Industries,Tata Motors and M&M

We all need to be disciplined along with using good money and risk management skills, yet too much of anything can cause problems.
Sometimes we put so much attention on caution to ensure that we only make good trades that we reduce our actions to the point that we miss so many strong trading opportunities.
Every time we begin our trading sessions, we need to communicate to ourselves that we will be confident, prepared and most importantly… committed to executing trades when our analysis shows that a good trade is in front of us.
Never allow the market, the news, your friends, your past trading session or anything else send you a false signal that causes you to sit back and do nothing when you can easily see from your training that you should execute a trade right now.

VIP Industries

VIP Industries has been on a waterfall decline from the high of rs 203 to a low of 97 in matter of 2 months. Stock was punter favorite and in bear market this stock saw a beating the pace it went up its falling from the same pace.
91 is the short term bottom for the stock and if held we can see a recovery but till than do not try to catch a falling knife. INR going strong is hurting the company.

Sell below 97.1 Tgt....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 13 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 12 Dec.



1. FII sold  10,778  Contracts in NF worth 235 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest Increasing by  28474 contracts after the disastrous IIP data which came.
2. FII has added  shorts as the volume tick in morning came at 4905 NF means big fund selling happening at that level, The significance of 4905 came in first half hour of session when we had fall and continued with the fall after IIP data means strong hands are sitting on shorts.
3. As NF  was  down by 113  points  with Open Interest addition by  FII . Rise in OI with fall  in price means shorts got added.
4. NF total OI was at 2.1 cores with 10 lakh addition shorts got added from retails and HNI also.

5. For December Series FII have squared off there longs and now fresh shorts were added today tune of 20K Contracts.
6. NF has fallen from the high of 5100 to...

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Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,Bajaj Auto and Rel Capital

When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don’t enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto broke an important support line and is nearing an important support of 1648,break below this will lead the stock in downward trend.
Stock becomes sell on rise once it closes below 1648.

Sell below 1644...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for week 12 Dec

Nifty was  down 3.8% during the week after the government lowered the full year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target below 8% worst in past 4 years also acknowledged that meeting the fiscal target would also prove to be a challenge and it will get to atleast 5.4% instead of 4.5%.
The deepening debt crisis in Europe and the lack of solution thereof, rising inflation and slowdown in growth in India and policy paralysis in the government have spooked stock markets and contributed to the increasing volatility.
We have slew of economic data next week with IIP DATA on Monday,Monthly Inflation data on Wednesday and RBI Quarterly review on Friday, these data will keep market on it toes and volatility will be the name of game.

On Technical aspect we had discussed 2 possibility last week Weekly  Analysis
1. Nifty Trend deciding level 5020 and below it Nifty went 178 points lower as soon as it starts trading below it.
2. Gap Filling between....



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Trading System, Trading Rules and the Trading Plan

Today Nifty opened Gap Down and than continued its downtrend till it reached the 4842 levels set up a panic bottom than a pullback and than again a decline before closing hours.How many traders blindly shorted at open levels and end up in losses and How many must be averaging there longs at 5100-5000 levels only based on there emotions and intuition. As a Trader you should always trade on your trading system not with your emotions.

Buy and Sell only when your levels comes not on your emotions.

I have interacted with many traders and mostly are trading on der emotions never on there system or levels which is one of the reason why they loose money.

 Trading System is how a trader selects and executes trades.

Trading Rules is how a trader implements the total Trading System

Trading Plan is the total, detailed plan of how a trader plans to achieve...

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Nifty trading levels for 9 Dec

Nifty had a rough ride yesterday which can be attributed to various reasons
1. Indian FM comments that Fiscal defcit is way out of control
2. Paralyses of Govt at Delhi with economic reforms coming to standstill
3. BJP now tested blood forcing govt to rollback the FDI in retail is now again not allowing parliament to perform asking resignation of Home Minister Chindaram
4. Comments from Deputy RBI governor that CRR cut is not on cards.
Fundamentally Indian Economy is not at all in good positions and same is reflected in stock markets.
Lets now look at technical structure of market.


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FII F&O Data analysis for 8 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 07 Dec.
Let me go by Disclaimer these Observation should not be used as Trade recommendation in NF


1. FII bought  20,044  Contracts in NF worth 539 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest Increasing by  13804  contracts.
2. FII has added  longs as the volume tick in morning came at 5066 NF means big fund buying happening at that level, The significance of 5066 came in last half hour of session when we had a waterfall decline but morning low 5055 and 5066 were not breached.
3. As NF  was almost up by 60 points before last 1 hour decline with Open Interest addition by  FII . Rise in OI with rise in price means longs got added.
4. NF total OI was at 2.3 cores with 4 lakh addition Longs got added from retails and HNI also.

5. For December Series FII are still long in 1.16 lakh contract of NF.
6. As I pointed out yesterday  Nifty formed an inside day ....

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Trading Calls:Bank of India,REC and Bajaj Auto

I realized that every time I had a loss, I needed to learn something from the experience and view the loss as tuition at the College of Trading. As long as you learn something from a loss, it’s not really a loss.

Stop looking at losses as problems and start viewing them as opportunities to elevate yourself to the next plateau. .-Jack D Schwager

Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto is taking support at middle band of upper and lower support line which can give a good trade set up if it holds the low of 1685.

Buy above 1703 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data Interpretation for 7 December trade

1. FII  sold  9107  Contracts in NF worth 216 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest Increasing by  25487  contracts.
2. FII has booked profits in longs they are holding before Holiday as these days holidays can be lethal to trading account looking at big gap up we have seen in few instances.
3. As NF was down by just 8 points Fall In Price with rise in Open Interest means FII  has booked profits in NF .
4. For December Series FII are still long in 96K contract of NF.
5. Nifty formed an inside day on Monday making way for range breakout in tommrow trading session above 5062 or below 5002
6. It has been 2 days in a row NF gave closing above 50 SMA which is bullish from short term perspective.

7. In Equity cash segment 4 day in a row they were buyers worth  146  cores  whereas DII were buyers in samll amount of  37 cores.
8. As per Options data  5100 CE has highest OI of .....

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Trading rules followed by successful and profitable traders

“Good trading is 10% technology and 90% psychology. People defeat themselves. It doesn’t matter how often you repeat basic trading principles when almost no one will practice them.” (Maoxian)
People lose money at the stock market for very simple reasons:

1. They don’t have a method at all. They rely on other people opinions.
2. People don’t have a winning method. The method they are trading has a negative expectancy. Being disciplined about stop losses and position sizing won’t help, if you are trading a losing method. Expectancy changes with volatility. When your method stops providing satisfying results, you either find another that is working in the current market conditions or stay on the side until things change.
3. Those who have a winning strategy often don’t use it. They get emotional and forget about their strategy.

Trading in the markets is a process, and there is always ....

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Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,HUL and Sun TV

A professional trader isolates himself from the herd and has trained himself to become a predator rather than a victim. He understands and recognizes principles that drive the markets and refuses to be mislead by good or bad news, tips, advice, brokers advice and well meaning friends. When the market is being shaken-out on bad news he is in there buying. When the Herd is buying and the news is good he is looking to sell.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty Weekly charts are shown above.BN rose 8% last week.BN is now at an important resistance of ...

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Technical Calls:Reliance Capital,bank Nifty and ICICI bank

The market does not care how you feel. It will not prop up your ego or console you when you are down.Therefore, trading is not for everyone. If you are unwilling to face the truth about the markets and the truth about your own limitations, fears and failures, you will not succeed.

Trading is not a sprint; it is boxing. The market will beat you up, screw with your head, and do anything it can to defeat you. But when the bell sounds at the end of the twelfth round, you must be standing in the ring in order to win.

Reliance Capital

After Looking at Reliance Capital Stock i wonder what can be the bottom of the stock. Stock has been falling relentleely from high of 2900 to low of 275 . Stocks looks quiet oversold on charts and a technical bounceback is on cards provided it starts trading above 296.Close above 296 will get the stock ready to move towards higher targets upto 330.
If you see the Monthly charts Rel capital took support at 275 which was ...












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Nifty Bulls back in action ?

The central banks of Europe, the U.S., Britain, Canada, Japan and Switzerland eased banks' access to dollars by reducing their borrowing rates. They were responding to fears that a European country will default, touching off a credit crunch similar to what followed the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Borrowing rates for European nations have skyrocketed on concerns that the European debt crisis has engulfed nations such as Italy which are too big to bail out. Borrowing rates for Italy, Spain and others have soared.
The central banks' action takes some pressure off the financial system, which has signaled in recent days that banks are losing faith in their trading partners. Banks need to trust each other to maintain healthy flows of credit and keep the system working.
Global Market are rallying and Nifty as per SGX (http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.com/)is trading at 5002.

Nifty Daily

As per Daily chart we discussed yesterday close above 5833 is very important level for December month.Yesterday Nifty closed above 5832 just a border line.
Nifty closed above 4800 for 3 days in a row....



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