FII FnO Data Analysis for 1 Feb Trade for Nifty Futures

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 31-Jan-12.

1. FII bought 15051 Contracts of NF worth 382 cores OI also increased by 4919 contracts.
2. Nifty Futures was able to cover up all the looses made yesterday ended up by 117 points,As OI also increased by 4919 contracts longs were added into the system.
3. We have clearly mentioned yesterday there were no indication of shorting from BIg Boys and today we saw the effect. Hope the timely warning helped trader and avoided shorting the INDEX
4. Today Nifty made one more attempt to cross over 200 DMA@5199 and closely near that level only.
5. Today's Price action has few important Observation

• Nifty filled the.....

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FII FnO Data Analysis for 31 Jan Trade for Nifty Futures

 Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 30-Jan-12.

1. FII  sold  45281  Contracts in NF worth 1154.94  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 30877 contracts.
2. As NF was down by 100 Points and Net OI has decrease by 30877 contracts it signify FII have started booking profits in there long trades. We do not have a conclusive evidence as per Data Analysis they have shorted on a large quantity the INDEX.

3.What make me think so I would ask readers to go through the Analysis on 25 Jan and 27 Jan
We have discussed the maximum Rollover happened in range of...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week beginning 30 Jan

Nifty had a fantastic start of year up 12.6% till date rising on back of equity buying by FII and value buying seen by HNI and retailers.
FII has pumped in 8000 cores in Jan Month alone,One of the biggest buying streak seen in recent times. Next week will be an interesting trading week as Nifty is approaching the crucial 200 DMA zone .
Last week we discussed Nifty Trend deciding level as 4995  is bound to move up and same happened this week with Nifty made a high of 5217 just 3 point short of our final target 5220

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly charts shown above i have pointed all the 5 Gaps which have been left unfulfilled from the rise of 4640-5217 on Nifty Spot. For a healthy rising markets such gaps needs to be filled as it can be considered as VOID left in a newly constructed building. Gaps will get filled in next downleg of Nifty most probably in February.

1 Gap :4641-4676 ....

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Why Traders loose money Trading Stock Options

• 90% of option traders lose money

Even people who are highly knowledgeable about the financial markets and work in the industry do poorly. There is evidence all over the place that losing money in options is normal and "everyone in the know knows it".
I never got good at options trading, but I never encountered anyone else who was good at it, either. Some people admitted that they lost money overall, while others, although they spoke readily of their wins, were evasive about losses and totals. This was less surprising when I discovered, to my disappointment, that many of the people who traded options were also gamblers.
Most people who continue trading options lose ALL the money they allocated, if they were smart enough to allocate an amount.

• Trading options was the one activity at which I could not improve by studying or practicing

If I study hard and work at something, I get better at it. Two years of effort and study did not improve my results at trading options. When study and practice bring no payoff at all, it is a red flag indicator that the activity might be one at which it is not possible to improve. The possibility must at least be seriously considered.

Option purchases are a "limited-risk" speculation... but....

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Technical Call:Bank Nifty and RIL

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty will face litmus test today.200 SMA @9466 High till now is 9455.  Bank Nifty was a good short in opening but i was unable to update timely.

Sell below 9721 Tgt....

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Bramesh
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FII FnO Data Analysis for Feb Series

One Nation, One Vision, One Identity
“No Nation is Perfect, it needs to be made perfect.”
Meri Pehchaan Mera India
Happy Republic Day.

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 25-Jan-11.



1. FII  sold  887  Contracts in NF worth 14.64  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 273257 contracts.
2. Yesterday was Expiry and FII have rollovered there longs to next series with Huge Decrease in OI worth 273257 contracts.
3. The February series started off with an open interest of Rs27,499 crore in stock futures, Rs12,914 crore in Nifty futures, Rs45,111 crore in index options and Rs2,078 crore in stock options.

4. NF total Feb OI is at  2.33 cores with 36 Lakh addition in  OI,Jan series saw a decrease of 39 lakhs in OI so as such 36 lakhs got rollovered and 3 lakhs got liquidated.

5. Rollovers provide good visibility of Next series Now look at Feb series rollover of NF. Today Feb Series OI is 2.33 Cores. On 20 Jan it was 1.2 Cores so in 5 trading session an addition of 1.1 Cores.
Now lets do some data analysis
On 20 Jan Nifty closed at NF Feb 5077 ....

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FII FnO Data Analysis before Jan expiry

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 24-Jan-11.


1. FII  bought  6911  Contracts in NF worth 184.64  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 33701 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was up  by 70  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created fresh longs   in Index futures.RBI played a crucial role in yesterday breakout above 5068. Nifty moved above 5068 which was a breakout trade,and closed above 5100.We gave indication 3 days before when we saw Liquidation of 5100 CE which signify BUll power have even strengthen and today we are above 5100. Hope traders are not short in market.
4. NF total Jan OI was at 1.29 cores with 29 Lakh liquidation  in  OI....

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FII FnO Data Analysis before crucial RBI meet on 24 Jan

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 23-Jan-11.


1. FII  bought  12617  Contracts in NF worth 323.46  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 27063 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was up  by 3  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created fresh longs   in Index futures.Nifty moved in range of just 28 points and still FII created longs in NF. Nifty has lost momentum adn making grinding moves in tight range throughout the day before the crucial RBI meet today.
3. RBI will take decision on CRR rate cut today at 12 PM. Bank Nifty has risen almost  ....

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Technical Charts:RIL,SBI and LT

Reliance Industries

RIL declared a pretty bad set of numbers and Ambani known for there shrewd business tactics covered the bad result goof up with Buy back with a max price at 870. So When Promoters itself do not consider the current value of company more than 870 as per current business scenario.
To add to it Buy back @870 does not mean that Stock will trade above 870 a general misconception most of people are having.
It basically means than if stock trades at 550 also Promoters will buy at 550. Maximun Upside is capped to 870.
Last time RIL declared Open Offer of 2000 Cores 2004 its bought just 529 cores from open market. Also this Open offer needs to be approved by SEBI.
Looking at Technicals of RIL 770-772 is cluster of resistance zone as shown with Trendlines in above chart.
So any upside will be above 772 only and downside below 753.

Sell below 752 TGt....

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Expiry Week

2012 started with a bearish noises all around and traders shorting stocks index on every rise. Investors were not deploying cash thinking of getting stocks at more lower levels. But market always move against the mass psychology and its Proved TRUE yes again. 

Nifty is up 9.2% in January 2012 Till date.In fact, this is best performance in January Month in last 10 years :). The rise is driven by FII Funds Flows and anticipation of RBI easing rates after monetary tightening cycles of past 2 years . RBI meet is on 24 Jan

Lets move to Technical of Nifty for coming Week. Last week we discussed Nifty not breaking 4804 is bound to move up and same happened this week with Nifty moving up by 3.8%.

Nifty Hourly Chart

On Hourly charts shown above i have pointed all the 4 Gaps which have been left unfulfilled from the rise of 4640-5064 on Nifty Spot. For a healthy rising markets such gaps needs to be filled as it can be ...


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Qualities of Successful trader: Control EGO and Greed Quotient

An avaricious or keen desire for profits is one of the most prevalent causes of failure in speculation. This weakness is general among traders. They desire “just a little more ” profit. If the stock or commodity bought advances, then that’s proof to them that it will advance further and so they hang on. They usually overstay and thus miss their market. If they fail to obtain the top price and it reacts, then they assure or console themselves by the expression: “Oh, it will come back.” It may “come back” but often it does not, and instead, declines to below the purchase price and frequently results in a loss. The same observations apply to a short sale for a further anticipated decline. It is a good policy to be satisfied with a reasonable profit and be willing to leave some for the other fellow. The market is always there and other opportunities for making profits will present themselves while the greedy trader is waiting to get the last eighth.
Greed leads to disaster in another way. A speculator has started in to buy at the inception of a bull movement. He makes money. The more he makes, the more avaricious he becomes as the market moves forward. His confidence in himself increases until he develops a mental state known in the vernacular as “big head” or “swelled head”. He now has unbounded confidence in himself and “plays the limit”. Soon thereafter the market culminates at the top and the trend reverses, but Mr. Swelled Head is ignorant of this, so continues to buy on set-backs instead of selling on rallies. A drastic slump follows and Mr. B.H. goes to the scrap pile – BUSTED.
Losses in market,Moving Profitable trade into loss is because of your EGO
Let the market make the decisions, not .....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 20 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19-Jan-11.


1. FII  bought  45614  Contracts in NF worth 1133  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 30362 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was up  by 64  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created fresh longs   in Index futures.Nifty is moving from gap to gap ie.Opening Gap up and than just consolidating through out the day. Day traders have nothing left to trade and earn after huge gap up.
3. As per yesterdays post we expected to ....

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Technical Calls:Jubilant Food,ITC and Axis Bank

AXIS Bank

Axis bank took support at its 930 which is 50 SMA and bottom of the channel. Volumes were low on a down day.
Now there are 2 distinct possibility
1. Break 50 SMA and correction till 20 SMA
2. Bounce from channel low and move towards 100 SMA

Buy above 954 Tgt.....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 19 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 18-Jan-11.

1. FII  sold 15129  Contracts in NF worth 350  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 687 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was down by 20  points and OI has increased today, with fall in price so FII have booked profit  in Index futures.But still no sign of shorting the index are visible.
3. Today was an expected to be a day of consolidation after a rise of 86 points yesterday and trading was dull in most part of the day with no major moves coming. But consolidation BULLS were winner as they were able to defend the 100 SMA@4831.
4. NF total OI was at 2.1 cores with 14 Lakh liquidation  in  OI,Profit booking was seen by retailers/HNI and DII.
5.FII OI 552296 is......

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Technical Calls:Educomp,Hind Oil and Coal India

Educomp

Trading range between 172-229. Stock can be sold at cmp with sl of 229.5

Sell below 220.3 Tgt ....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 18 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 17-Jan-11.


1. FII  bought 42432  Contracts in NF worth 1046  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 42548 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was up by 86  points and OI has increased today, with rise  in price so FII are long  in Index futures.As we have discussed 5 days before No shorts above 4800 Click on Link to read and Nifty low was 4804...

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Technical Calls:TCS,Maruti Udhyog and Hindalco Industries

Maruti Udhyog

Maruti has been trading in the range of 907-1008 from past many trading sessions. Yesterday it made an attempt to close above 1010 but supply pressure came on higher end.
One positive thing close above 50 SMA @972 is positive for the stock in medium term

Buy above 1010 Tgt....

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 16 Jan

The Week Ended up with the inevitable,long due and  bold decision by S&P Rating agency: Downgrade of EU Nations

Standard & Poor's carried out a mass downgrade of euro zone countries on Friday, stripping France and Austria of their top-grade AAA ratings, Nine of the 17 members of the euro area had their credit ratings cut by S&P. France and four other countries suffered a one-notch downgrade while Portugal, Italy, Spain and Cyprus were cut by two notches.

The decision of S&P will have impact on Europe Financial Stability fund (EFSF) as its Credit Rating will also be downgraded as France was big lender for EFSF fund and its rating has been downgraded to AA.
Next Week main event to watch

1. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2. Bond Sale of EFSF fund on Tuesday How market react to it ?
3. Monday being an Holiday for US market so its EU news and Stock markets reaction which needs to be watched closely.

HAPPY Pongal & Makara Sankranthi to all Blog Readers

Lets move to technical of Nifty

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly chart Nifty is forming Rising.....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 13 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 12-Jan-11.


1. FII  sold 4203  Contracts in NF worth 114.54  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 4807 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future  was down by 20  points and OI has increased today, with fall in price so FII have booked profit  in Index futures.As we have discussed 2 days before No shorts above 4800 Click on Link to read and today also we saw a dip near 4800 and it got bought into.
3. Today we were expecting a wild volatile day it did happened but sad part we neither got a breakout above 4883 nor a breakdown below 4800. Infy gave a good results as per market expectation but there dollar guidance was well below market expectation, If we dig down number basically they are expecting a growth of 0-0.2%  in April Quater in Dollar terms so the reason Infy took a beating today and it can go on for next 2-3 days.
4. IIP number were a surprise on...

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Swing Calls:SBI,Infosys,Sun TV and Jubilant food

State Bank of India

SBI we have covered it 2 days before as a breakout trade above 1710 Stock made a high of 1776 and now profit booking is advisable. Stock is approaching its trendline resistance as shown in above chart. Resistance are never broken in single attempt.

Sell between the range of 1776-87 keep sl of 1800 Tgt 1753 and 1731

Infosys Limited

Never catch a falling knife and it holds true for infosys also,So do not jump into a sinking boat either stay with trend or stay on sidelines. Pain is still not over in infosys

Sell below....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 12 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 11-Jan-11.

1. FII bought   11927 Contracts in NF worth 271.13  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 13137 contracts.
2. As NF  was up by 2  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created long in Index futures.Dips which came near 4845-50 were aggressively bought into.
3.After a big rise of 120 points   on Tuesday best case  for BULLS was to have a consolidation day with positive bias as we have three major events lined up tomorrow Infosys results  before market hours and IIP data at 11 AM  and also Inflation data and that will decide the further trend of market.

4. Today FII OI is ...

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3 Index Heavyweight On Verge of Breakout:RIL,SBIN and Infosys

SBIN

SBI the banking behemoth has shown a breakout yesterday and today we need a follow up action. As shown in above chart clear cut break of trendline but stock need to close above 1710 to confirm breakout.

Buy above 1710 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 11 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 10-Jan-11.

1. FII bought   43859  Contracts in NF worth 1054.37  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 32891 contracts.
2. As NF  was up by 120  points and OI has increased today, with rise in price so FII have created long in Index futures.From past 2 days all dips were bought by FII as pointed in yesterdays post and today it showed it effect. Breakout above 4800 showed its effect.
3. Nifty is forming a contracting triangle on hourly charts both on upside and downside. Resistance are coming down 4775 and support are coming up 4705 which means breakout is soon on cards but when it will be is million dollar question.  This is what we wrote yesterday and here we are trading well above 4800.
4. FII has pumped in almost 2300 cores in past 8 


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Technical Calls:Bf Utility and Bombay Dyeing

When a position is getting ready to stop you out at a loss, do you find yourself bargaining with the name? Do you find your frustration level rising? Do you justify the reason for the move against you, and give it a little more room, only to get stopped out at a bigger loss? Or even worse, perhaps you now find yourself sitting on a double-digit loss, and are frozen with what to do with this now sinking ship? And perhaps the biggest fear for a trader is closing out a position only to see it run back in their favor moments later. Trust me when I say that every trader, seasoned or not, has these moments when stop levels are hit and they hesitate with pulling the trigger

BF Utilities

BF Utilities is breaking out of symmetrical triangle formation.Stock rose yesterday with good volumes. Break above 304 will lead to 332 in short term

Buy above 304 TGt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 10 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 9-Jan-11.


1. FII bought   4359  Contracts in NF worth 107.69 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing  by 13454 contracts.
2. As NF  was down by 9 points and OI has reduced today, with fall in price so FII have used the morning dips to cover there shorts. On Friday 11 Lakh NF was shorted at 4804 so some might have got covered today in morning dip.
3. From past 4  trading days have been  quiet irritating and frustrating to most of traders as it was just trading in tight range of 4692-4800 and not showing any trending move. Directional call and positional traders SL gets hit on both side in such marekts.
4. Nifty is forming a contracting triangle on hourly charts both on upside and downside. Resistance are coming down 4775 and support are coming up 4705 which means breakout is soon on cards but when it will be is million dollar question. Will Infy be the trigger ?
5. Technically today is fifth  close above 20 SMA@...

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Technical Calls:Bank Nifty,DLF and Bata India

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is forming a falling wedge pattern which is bullish but it need to break above 8587 to show the effect of the pattern. Friday it made an attempt to break above 8587 but got resisted with trendline resistance and sellers were active at higher levels.

Buy above 8480 Tgt...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week 9 January

The Opening Week of New year 2012 was won by Bulls as Nifty closed up by 2% in a range bound and dramatic closing of week as market was open on Saturday also.
One interesting observation i found out on Facebook thought of sharing with readers
On 6 Feb 2010 Markets were open on Saturday and Nifty was trading ,High was 4768 and Low was 4712,4712 remained low for almost 2 years. So do we see the History repeating again ?
Another Interesting aspect for this week gone by was Food Inflation which dipped in negative but it failed to cheer markets nor Policy maker and surprised the common public.Normal Households food budget has doubled from past 1 year but as per Government data  food inflation is negative. How is tht possible?
Food Inflation dropped is more because of High base effect we were having in past 1 year so its a mere statistical representation of year-on-year movement in prices of select items.
 Fuel prices (especially LPG) that materially impact household consumption budgets, remain a contentious issue. Hence, it is too early to celebrate the decline in food inflation numbers. RBI cutting rates on this number will be a wishful thinking. 
Coming Week will be quiet exciting in term of news flow data as ...

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Developing an Effective Trading Strategy

Nifty did again the Unexpected Making everyone Bearish Today  Blue Channel talking about 4600 Traders holding Bulk of Puts and Than came the U-turn and an awesome rise in 15 mins.
Traders who were short  need to cover at high price or might be still holding the shorts in a HOPE of nifty coming down.(Well it can but I am a system trader and System is in up mode)
100 % traders are bearish/bullish – how can market fall now or rise? ?
For every trade to take place there must be a buyer and a seller. Further, there must be agreement on price and volume.

You need to have a trading Strategy to earn money in Stock Market

Developing an effective strategy requires a....

 

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FII F&O Data analysis for 06 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 5-Jan-11.


1. FII bought   12,994  Contracts in NF worth 313.55 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 23116 contracts.
2. As NF  was down by 5 points and OI has increased today, As price was down marginally and FII were buyers as Price(small down tick of 5 points  cannot be considered as selling)  and OI both have changed in positive so some long build up. Nifty  made 5 attempt today 4772,4775,4776,4779 and 4780  and all were sold off.  So means selling pressure is coming to higher end.
3. Today trade in NF was quiet irritating and frustrating....

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FII F&O Data analysis for 05 Jan trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 4-Jan-11.



1. FII sold   6528  Contracts in NF worth 148 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 17730 contracts.
2. As NF  was down by 23 points and OI has increased today, As price was down marginally and FII were sellers so i am coming to conclusion they shorted more at higher level. To add to my fact is Nifty is unable to cross the resistance of 4800. It made 3 attempt today 4773,4781 and 4783  and all were sold off.  So means selling pressure is coming to higher end.
3. Today trade in NF was  ...

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Technical Calls:RIL,SBIN and Onmobile

“The best traders don’t think about how many millions they need to make each year.  They focus on making the best trading decision they can with each trade they make. And if there isn’t a good trading opportunity right now, they have the discipline to do nothing and just wait. Concentrating on one trade at a time is their process”

Reliance

RIL the market leader retested its breakdown level of 71-713 yesterday and day before yesterday low being 710 and 713.  Not breaking below breadown level means strong hands are buying and giving support.

Buy above 727 Tgt..

 

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,Cairn India

The greatest fault of ninety-nine out of one hundred active traders is being bullish at high prices and bearish at low prices. Therefore, refuse to follow the market beyond what you consider a reasonable climax, no matter how large the possible profits that you may appear to be losing by inaction

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty was up by 4.3% outperforming Nifty by almost 2%. Bank Nifty is high beta index and should always be traded by professional traders only.


Yesterday was a clean sweep for bears as bank nifty retraced the fall of 5 days in a single session,well this gives a bullish indication.Technically Bank Nifty has approached its 20 DMA @8356. Any upmove will be continued once Bank Nifty closes above 8360 only. Bank Nifty has been eluding 20 SMA from past 17 trading session and close above it will bring further momentum to  the rise.
If you observe the above chart closely Bank Nifty once it close above 20 SMA will give a rally in range of 3-8%.

Buy above 8360 Tgt..

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Technical Calls:SBIN,HUL,ICICI Bank and Infosys Limited

SBIN

SBIN closed near its resistance of 1633. Banking stocks have corrected in range of 30-70% in past 2 months on concerns of credit growth. Banking are the front runner of economy and hence they are one to lead the fall or rise in Nifty.
Looking at chart of SBI selling pressure has abated as stock is boucing as soon as it go near 1588-1600 levels giving indication strong hands have started accumulating this and in matter of time where it will show a rally.

Buy above 1637 TGt ...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 03 Dec trade in Nifty future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 2-Jan-11.


1. FII sold   18,284 Contracts in NF worth 419.15  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 5958 contracts.
2. As NF  was  up  by 16  points  with Open Interest increase by  FII . Rise  in OI with Rise  in price means  shorts were squared off as we know FII are carrying shorts or they have added more short in today's small upmove. As FII Volumes are quiet low so its difficult to intrepert at this juncture were it shorts or Longs addition
3. Today can be termed as Day of reversal why because of Nifty bouncing from 4588.
78.6% retracement from 4531-4819 comes at...

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Technical Calls:Maruti,TCS and Axis Bank

Maruthi Udyog

Maruti is forming descending triangle formation with support at 911.Break of 911 will lead to further weakness in Maruti .Close below 910 will lead the gap filling of May 09.
Gap is present from 848-910,Close below 910 expect the stock to move till 848 within this week.

Sell below 910 Tgt ....

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Nifty Index Outlook for 2-6 January 2012

Happy New Year 2012 to all Site readers.

2011 came to an end on dismal note with Sensex recorded its second worst performance in the last 14 years, second only to 2008 .BSE and Nifty is down 24%  making it one of the worst performers in the global stock markets.  The real pain is in DEFTY ie. Nifty is Dollar term which is down 43% attributing to the Rise in INR of 19%. Foregin investor have seen there portfolio value eroding by 43% which has left a deep black hole in there pockets.


Below is Month on Month Performance of Nifty down 24% in absolute term
JAN 2011 Nifty -10.2%
FEB 2011 Nifty -3.1%
MAR 2011 Nifty +9.4%
APR 2011 Nifty -1.4%
MAY 2011 Nifty -4.8%
JUN 2011 Nifty +3.2%
JUL 2011 Nifty -2.9%
AUG 2011 Nifty -8.8%
SEP 2011 Nifty -1.2%
OCT 2011 Nifty +7.8
NOV 2011 Nifty -9.3%
DEC 2011 Nifty -4.3%

 What to expect out of 2012

I am a firm believer of History and Chart pattern repeat itself .2012 being a leap 

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