FII Derivative Data Analysis for Nifty Future June 2012

We had an disastrous GDP data out today,Q4 growing at just 5.3% slowest GDP number in past 10 years but still Nifty made a move of just 15 points made a quick low of 4882 and bounced back,So have market participants already factored in these number or was it due to expiry pressure?
My take it was due to expiry pressure as Cash FII and DII both were sellers and Nifty rise is last 30 min was just due to Futures Rollover as RIL moved to 729 in cash market and Futures made a high of 706, Huge short covering was seen in Small Bank Stock CBI,Dena ,UCO in last 30 mins. So its an expiry game which took place and market will return to their natural form by tomorrow. The worst part of the day was Mr. Pranab Da is still not accepting the mistake of GOI in slowing down Indian growth story but putting the blame on European Crisis and Greece. If you cannot get your house in order how come you blame others for the problem ?
1. FII  sold 49447 Contracts of NF worth 1252 cores,OI decreased by 359636.
2. Bank Nifty OI for all 3 month ie. May,June ...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for Nifty Future May 2012 Expiry

1. FII  sold 8832  Contracts of NF worth 254 cores OI also increased by 40572.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 48 points and OI has increased  by 40572 , ie Fall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.
3. Nifty today closed below 4955 ie. 20 SMA which is technically bearish,Till it trades above 4920 bulls have upper hand. As Expiry is nearing and we have these grinding moves so that premium of calls and puts gets eaten away by Option Writers. 4900 PE which was trading at 17 in morning closed at Rs 12 even though NF made a low of 4945 so time value is eaten by writers.
4. From the start of May Series view was Sell in may and ...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 30 May Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 9477  Contracts of Index Futures worth 216 cores OI increased by 20063.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 6  points with  OI increased  by200635 , Huge Short were covered by FII.
3. INR (http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/),Click on link to get live rate during market hours closed at new low of 55.59 so the low of 55 was protected and INR has started rising again,the same effect was seen in NIfty in dying hours as it closed below psychological support of 5000.
4.Nifty today closed above 4981 ie. 20 SMA which is technically bullish,Till it trades above 4981 bulls have upper hand. Hourly charts are overbought and dips till 4920 can happen as we have gaps and cool off..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 29 May Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 3551  Contracts of Index Futures worth 96 cores OI increased by 38185.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 52  points with  OI increased  by38185 , Huge Short were covered by FII.
3. INR closed at new low of 55.14, which also contributed to Bullish bias today,NS has 11 Points gaps which needs to be filled. 4931-4920 is the gap which is left in NS after todays upmove.
4.Nifty today closed above 4960 and also above..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 27 May

Nifty halted its down move, made a low of 4803 but outperformed BRIC as we are up  0.6% WoW basis. Last week as we discussed below 4898  trend remain bearish and Nifty made a low of 4803 high of 4934.Click Here to Read the Previous Week Analysis

INR made a life time low of 56.3 before closing 55.41, on news that we can see Diesel Hike and Cooking Gas price gas hike which will help in getting its finance in order. Next Week is Expiry do except a volatile week ahead. Till 4960 is not crossed Bears are having upperhand and they will want to push nifty down to cover there shorts at lower rates,Bulls if able to cross above 4960 will lead to huge short covering coupled with value buying.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Trading comfortably above 50 HSMA @4880. Hourly charts are approaching overbought conditions and pullback till 50HSMA should be bought into.Below 4880 low of 4805 can be retested again.

Nifty Gaps

Nifty has the following gaps so any close below 5000 will lead to gap filling so keep a close eye on..

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FII Derivatives Analysis for 25 May Trade

Bulls gave a Knockout punch today to bears and in one instance closed above 4900 . Does it change the trend.
My analysis show till its below 4960 Bears still have upper hand,Bear market rallies are sharp furious and short lived. Above 4960 Bulls will get upper hand . Expiry is 5 days away and till now as we have discussed we can see a move 4700-5000 till expiry and tomorrow being a Weekly closing  Bulls needs to close nifty above 4918 else this upmove will also flatter.
1. FII  sold 26556  Contracts of Index Futures worth 660 cores OI increased by 18648.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 98  points with  OI increased  by18648 , Short were covered by FII.
3. INR closed at new low of 55.70 (http://usdinrlive.blogspot.in/) So at last Fall in USD after 7 days of strength.
4.Nifty is still not out of woods...

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FII Derivatives Analysis for 24 May Trade

Today we had the Steepest rise in Petrol Prices Rs 7.50,Quantum of Hike will lead to inflation as price of essential goods will rise and whole brunt will be borne by Common Man!!. For Stock Market Perceptive its negative for Auto Stocks, Bank Stocks (as Further rate hikes will not be done) ,Infra Stocks and positive for OMC BPCL,HPCL and IOC.
Global Screen is looking scary with S&P coming closer to its 200 DMA@1279. Always remember Oversold and get more Oversold so do not Buy just because Market is oversold it will harm your financial wealth and peace of mind.

1. FII  sold 33591 Contracts of Index Futures worth 812  cores OI increased by 8427.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 26  points with  OI increased  by 8427 , Shorts have entered the system.
3. INR closed at new low of 56.08 (http://usdinrlive.blogspot.in/) Click on link to see Real time rate for INR, with fuel price hike INR can see some strength tomorrow.Till Nifty does..

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Technical Calls:Educomp,Opto Circuit and HUL

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they want to make”

Opto Circuit

Opto Circuit would be declaring its results today.Stock is unable to sustain and close above its 20 SMA 178 which means technically stocks look week.Break of 168 can lead to panic selling in stock and on higher end 178-182 range will act as stiff resistance

Sell below 173.5  Tgt...

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FII Derivatives Analysis for 22 May Trade

FII FnO Analysis for 22 May trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 22391  Contracts of Index Futures worth 547  cores OI increased by 3607.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 4  points with  OI increased  by 3607 , FII has liquidated there longs created on Friday and still no fresh shorts have been added in system,Why i say so FII Trend Deciding levels has increased by 10 points to 4671 which means no shorts were added. Rise in Trend Deciding levels means no shorts have entered the system.
3. 4960 was the laxman rekha for bulls and Nifty made a high of 4938 and retreated back,Also we have mentioned the NF range as 4932 in Facebook page and Nifty made a high of 4931.95 and came back.All attempts to go above 4932 were sold into.Now till we are below 4960 bears have upperhand.

4.Good thing about todays pullback was we have filled the gap in opening from...

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FII Derivatives Analysis for 21May Trade

FII FnO Analysis for 21 May trade in Nifty Future
As we have discussed in Last Thursday (Click on Link to see ) post Nifty looks ripe for Bounce and fresh shorting should not be done,Nifty obliged us with opening gap down and showing a quick recovery and rallied to almost 122 points. Hope traders make good money on Friday.
1. FII  sold 297  Contracts of Index Futures worth 20 cores OI decreased by 22009.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 34  points and 122 points from days low with  OI decreased  by 22009 , which signify shorts were covered by FII.Still no signs of long addition so till now it is just a technical bounce.
3. 78.6% Fibo Retracement from 4531-5630 comes at 4767 and Nifty Spot made a low of...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Begining 21 May

Nifty continued with its down move  and made a low of 4788 but outperformed rest of world markets as we are down only 0.8% WoW basis. Last week as we discussed below 4995 trend remain bearish and Nifty made a high of 4957 and reached to 4788.Click Here to Read the Previous Week Analysis

Indian markets are facing the double whammy of rising Indian Rupee as it touched almost 55 odd levels,Life time low with  rising Inflation as April Inflation came at 7.23%Greece the small economy has kept the world markets on its toes on whether it will remain in and out of Eurozone. Greece leaving Eurozone will be Lehman Moment of 2012 and cost run in almost trillion dollars.Greece has declared election on 17 June which gives lot of time to ECB and World Leaders to prepare a contingency plan for Greece Exit.

Facebook Listed on NASDAQ on Friday and closed almost at its 38.23 near to its offer price.Facebook net worth is now 104 Billion Dollars.
In simple valuation terms, Facebook's stock is trading at 105 times its 2011 earnings. This means that in 2011, the company's profits stood at US$ 1 bn. For any company to justify such valuations, its earnings growth needs to be phenomenally high. How Facebook will capitalise on its 900 m plus user base (and one that is still growing), will definitely be interesting.
Lets jump into Technical.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty hourly charts are giving sign of reversals as it is breaking the downward slopping trendline from running from 5300. Close....

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Perfection and Discipline in trading

Before taking a trade how many times have you thought i will buy at bottom and sell at top.
How many times have you removed your Stoploss after feeding it but removed it once price started coming near Sl.
How many times have you lost all profits earned in a trade and end up being a losser
If you have the above mentioned problems in trading

Reason is need for perfection

A common trait among newer traders, or among traders that are not profitable is a need for perfection. With so much noise in the media, blogs, and forums about calling tops and bottoms, one would think it’s a trader’s job to predict such things. Expecting to nail the top or bottom is a recipe for frustration and inconsistent performance.
For the discretionary trader, perfectionism is the enemy of the good.  Trading is about making money while simultaneously controlling risk, it has nothing to do with perfectionism. All traders have some degree of perfectionism, but some have more than others.  The variation in perfectionism is due to personality differences, and the different career backgrounds that some people bring to trading.
Traders with strong perfectionist tendencies often equate taking a loss with failure. For these traders, a losing trade often marks the beginning of a new ....

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FII Derivatives Analysis for 19 May Trade

FII FnO Analysis for 18 May trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 10589  Contracts of Index Futures worth 245 cores OI increased by 23887.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 4  points and OI has increased  by 23887 , which signify more shorts have entered the system. Unable to close above 4900 is bearish but today Nifty future were not able to break the 4827 which signify Bulls are active at lower levels.
3.Nifty closed below 4900 which is at 4 months low with INR making a Life time high of 54.66 and closed at...

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FII FnO Analysis for 17 May trade in Nifty Future

FII FnO Analysis for 17 May trade in Nifty Future
Nifty continued with its free fall as per our analysis,but many traders have stuck with longs at higher levels and question in everyone mind is when will the reversal come.Can it come at 4800 or 4500 etc. If you want to be profitable trader you need to get above such thought process,You need to develop a system and follow the system with discipline.Ignoring the noises around you. Having "Faith and Trust" in yourself and your system only can help you in the journey of becoming a profitable trader.
So Stop searching for Top and Bottom,coz they will comes only once in a while but concentrate more on "How will you trade the moves".
1. FII  sold 34739  Contracts of NF worth 756 cores OI increased by 31363.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 85  points and OI has increased  by 31363 , which signify more shorts have entered the system.
3.Nifty closed below 4900 which is at 4 months low with INR making a Life time high of 54.62. Rise in INR increases our Current account deficit which is bad for our economy. 78.6% Fibo Retracement from 4531-5630 comes at 4795 so a close below this will be bearish and ...

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Technical Calls:Educomp,Bata India and Voltas

Voltas

Pennant Formation with support emerging at 200 DMA,Breakout above 111.2 and breakdown below 105

Buy above 111.2 Tgt 112.4 and 114.2 and 115.7

Sell below 109.9 Tgt..

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FII FnO Analysis for 16 May trade in Nifty Future

FII Derivative Stats for 16 May Trade in NF


1. FII  sold 3873  Contracts of NF worth 66 cores OI increased by 397.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 54 points and OI has increased  by 397 , which signify partial shorts have entered the system.
3. Nifty has closed below 5000 for 5th day in a row  and  below 4951 which was a psychological level 61.8% retracement  and every attempt to move above 4950 was getting sold into. Trading below 4951 is a victory for bears.

4.Nifty gave a relief rally today from 4869-4955 which is 86 Points On Friday it moved from 4905 to 4976 which is again ....

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FII FnO Analysis for 15 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 15 May


1. FII  sold 14152  Contracts of NF worth 327 cores OI increased by 19634.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 43 points and OI has increased  by 19634 , which signify more shorts have entered the system.
3. Nifty has closed below 5000 for 4th day in a row  and  below 4951 which was a psychological level 61.8% retracement  and every attempt to move above 4950 was getting sold into. Trading below 5000 and daily adding shorts by FII gives a bearish picture ahead for series.Today Inflation data at 7.23% has further reduced the scope of rate cuts by ..

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FII FnO Analysis for 14 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 14 May

1. FII  sold 16809  Contracts of NF worth 379 cores OI increased by 38191.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 35 points and OI has increased  by 38191 , which signify more shorts have entered the system.
3. Nifty has closed below 5000 for 3 day..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Begining 14 May

As discussed in last week analysis Nifty Technical Structure look weak and Nifty corrected and closed below 200 DMA on a Weekly Closing basis. GAAR has been delayed by 1 Year and we got a news based rally which got sold into showing the supremacy of Technical Analysis.Last Week we shorted below trend deciding level of 5070 and Nifty stopped its downmove on our last support level at 4905.Click Here to Read the Previous Week Analysis
Election results in France and Greece have once again triggered Euro debt worries as voters have overwhelmingly rejected austerity measures in favor of anti-austerity leaders.Greece is heading for another elections and if anti austerity party gains full majority Greece will mostly be out of Eurozone.
Will it be Lehman Moment ?
Some Good news for Bulls
Peoples Bank of China cuts Reserve Ratio Requirement by 50 bps to 20% effective from 18th May 2012.A 50 basis-point cut in the reserve requirement in February probably added 400 billion yuan ($63.4 billion) to the financial system

Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly Charts are trading below both 20 and 50 HSMA and Bears inability to fill the gap from 4905-4880 shows bulls are buying at lower levels. Any move above 4995 can trigger a relief rally...

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Can money be made in trading ?

Trading is always a high return high risk game and it needs nimble trading approach with tons of discipline.

Traders say its  the Big traders who move the market and we end up making loss.
Well i do not buy this reasoning. The most Important part in trading is trading discipline and trading system(Throughly Backtested)
Some general reason why traders loose money

Mistake # 1: Jumping in with Both Feet

Would you perform a surgery, or fly a plane loaded with passengers without any previous training? Of course not. That would be insane.
But when it comes to trading the markets, that’s exactly what a lot of people do. They jump right in, without any kind of guidance or plan because they feel confident they can beat the market.
But making money trading the markets is not easy. If it was, you could just quit your day job, buy a little condo on some tropical island and never look back.
Now is it possible to reach that point? Sure. But it’s not going to happen overnight.
So before you start trading, you need to make sure you have a plan.
After learning the ..

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,BF Utility and SAIL

Systems don’t need to be changed. The trick is for a trader to develop a system with which he is compatible.
I don’t think traders can follow rules for very long unless they reflect their own trading style. Eventually, a breaking point is reached and the trader has to quit or change, or find a new set of rules he can follow. This seems to be part of the process of evolution and growth of a trader.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty closed below 200 DMA for 3 day in a row,Break of 9340 also break the downward slopping channel.

Sell below 9320 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 11 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 11 May

1. FII  sold 3125  Contracts of NF worth 45.54 cores OI increased by 14803.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 17 points and OI has increased  by 14803 , which signify more shorts have entered the system. Yesterday as we pointed out FII have used the rise to short the market and today they have added more shorts in the system.
3. Nifty has closed below ...

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FII Derivative Analysis for 10 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 10 May

1. FII  bought 4934  Contracts of NF worth 145 cores OI increased by 7130.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 22 points and OI has increased  by 7130 , which signify more shorts have entered the system. Yesterday as we pointed out FII have used the rise to short the market and today they have added more shorts in the system.
3. Nifty has closed below 5000 which was a psychological level and every attempt to move above 5000 was getting sold into. Today FII average traded Price comes at 5885 which is way above the traded range of 5000 which means FII have carried shorts for tomorrow.

4. Today nifty filled...

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FII FnO Analysis for 9 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 9 May

1. FII  sold 4910  Contracts of NF worth 76 cores OI increased by whopping  27192. Number of Contracts sold were less but OI has seen a good increase which suggest more number of shorts have entered the system.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 120 points and OI has increased  by 27192 , which signify more shorts have entered the system. Yesterday as we pointed out FII have used the rise to short the market and today they have added more shorts in the system.
3. Today first sign of weakness was visible when Nifty was...

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FII FnO Analysis for 8 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 8 May

1. FII  sold 3525  Contracts of NF worth 59 cores OI increased by 14041.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 28 points and OI has increased  by 14041 , which signify FII has use the rise to short the Index.
3. Today we saw a fall till 4988 which was just 3 points shy of 4991 levels and after clarification on GAAR markets rally,with Nifty just 1 point shy of 200 DMA@5115. Now as we got clarity on GAAR will the markets continue to rally is million dollar question. Looking at FnO data till Nifty is trading below 5205 the breakdown point Bears are under control. Hourly charts were quiet oversold and bounce back was imminent.
4. India VIX@20 is at lower end of range and any move above 23.33 will add more power to Bulls, IV of Calls and Puts is also between 20-30 only.Also the lower trendline...

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FII FnO Analysis for 7 May trade in Nifty Future

Below is my FII interpretation for FII datasheet for 7 May

1. FII  sold 44106  Contracts of NF worth 1038 cores OI increased by 25294.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 134 points and OI has increased  by 25294 , ie.Fall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,short positions are added by FII.
3. World markets are down in deep Red as US Non Farm payroll data disappointed , Wave of Anti Austerity is sweeping Europe with French President Sarkozy being the 12 Leader who has been given thumps down in Europe and most Shocking Anti bailout parties winning in GREECE. Apart from that our Indian Economy macros ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 7 May

General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) is the buzzword for every trader in Indian Stocks, Indian Markets have lost almost 10Billon$ of funds because of lack of clarity on GAAR.It is feared that the new rules could lead to a significantly high tax liabilities for FIIs, even if they route their funds through tax-friendly jurisdictions. Besides, the FIIs could be forced to pass on their tax liabilities to their P-note clients, thus adversely impacting their overall returns on investment.
Nifty is trading at 3 months low and breached the psychological and sacrosanct level of 200 DMA on daily and weekly closing basis.Sell in may is showing its effect.
Next week Greece election results which decides whether it will stay in EURO,How the EU markets see the ouster of Sarkozy Clarity on GAAR will either pave road for recovery or further impetus to the fall.
Last Week Trend Deciding level from 5217  has give both short and long call and people who traded would have made at least 150 points.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly charts for Nifty looks quiet oversold and relief rally bounce back can be expected, But always remember its the higher time frame which has to be given more importance. Nifty can show a relief rally of ...


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