FII Derivative Data Analysis for 21June trade in Nifty Future

All eyes will be on US Fed announcement at  11:45 PM IST  Will he extend monetary easing of Operation Twist which expires in June 2012. Well situation in US is similar  to India, US government is not taking any steps to improve the fiscal situation and reforms which can spur it with lot of political bickering and heavily dependent on Fed to print more money and bring back economy on track. As this is Presidential year in US so fed might be under political compulsion to announce more QE which we will come to know tonight.  US stocks has been rising from past 12 days and S&P has moved above 50 SMA also which is bullish. Now if Fed do announce a which markets has priced in already we can see a sell off in tune which we saw on Nifty when RBI disappointed market.Any surprise can further lead to continuation of rally.

Food for thought:When last 2 QE were not able to spur growth will another QE can do ?

1. FII  bought 8320 Contracts of NF ,worth 186  cores with net OI increasing by 15226 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 11  points and OI has increased by 15226 contracts  means FII have initiated  fresh  longs in Index futures.

3. Nifty is still Buy on Dip till ...

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Technical Calls:Reliance,Pantaloon and Reliance Capital

Traders who need to make money “right now” will trade more aggressively not realizing that the market will do what it wants when it wants regardless of the sand left in the hour glass.  I don’t know about others but I would much rather chase three turtles than one rabbit any day.  Slow and steady determines the pace while fast and furious can end the race.

Reliance

Reliance has shown a breakout above 736 with a formation of Bullish engulfing candle,Above 739 stock will bound to move towards 750

Buy above 739 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 20 June trade in Nifty Future

IMF crisis fund swells to 6bn as BRIC nations pledge cash.India Donates 10 Billion USD and China Donated 43 Billion USD, Indian is running a Current and Fiscal Account Deficit  and China is unable to revive its economy but donating money to IMF. This kind of political mockery by China and India should be questioned by people. 10 Billion USD if spent on India infrastructure projects can help to kick start the economic engine.
Another important news event was The terms of Greece's bailout will be renegotiated, according to a senior EU official, as the worsening situation there makes the original agreement "an illusion." Anyone who believes differently "is delusional.So Germany resistance is slowly paving down, and we are returning to ground reality
1. FII  sold 8534 Contracts of NF ,worth 253  cores with net OI increasing by 18386 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 51  points and OI has increased by 18836contracts  means..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 19 June trade in Nifty Future

RBI did the right thing by not reducing the rates but so much expectation was built in so we had a 100 points collapse in NF in 10 mins, Also i did mention is last analysis do not take position in Opening trades as pressure will come from people holding longs. Still the trend is bullish till we are closing above our rollover range of 5013. Fitch has downgraded India rating to negative from stable  such news provide an opportunity for Longs to be taken in DIPS, The 61happened on last Thursday 14 June Nifty cracked to 5054 and next day closed at 5139 so such news are excuse for Bulls to book profit and enter again at lower levels.

1. FII  bought 6616 Contracts of NF ,worth 189 cores.

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 18 June

The All Important Greece Vote will be conducted tomorrow, What results Financial Market accept  (Click on Link to see) .
We have the all important RBI policy on Monday market expectation are as follows

• Repo Rate :Exp 7.75%, Current 8.0%
• CRR :Exp 4.75%, Current 4.75%
• Reverse Repo :Exp 6.75%, Current 7.0%

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts is forming an Inverted HnS Pattern with neckline breakout at 5146 which gives a target of 5246.  So Bulls should Watch out closely the break and sustain of 5146 and bears should hold 5146 to push nifty down.

Nifty Gaps

Nifty has the following gaps so any close below 5000 will lead to gap filling so keep a close eye on the gap levels mentioned below
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Greece Election and Its Impact on Financial Markets

As Sunday's Greek elections approach, consensus is rising Will it be a  Lehman Brothers moment for Europe. This will come true , if the hard-left bailout-denouncing Syriza party wins, it could set off a cataclysm in the markets, a chain reaction that would set neighbors and then the whole world on fire.
So Will it be a Repeat of September 2008 when Lehman went Burst?
Lets look at series of events which took place before Lehman Moment
 There were series of Bailout to US financial Institution and now we have on large scale ...

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Why Traders Stick to Losing Position?

From a psychological point of view nobody wants to sell at a loss as in most situations in life making mistakes and admitting them is associated with being a loser. That’s why most people prefer sticking to a losing position. They don’t want to be labeled a loser. So they start hoping their position will turn around and end up being a huge winner. The stock then keeps tanking. Then they hope they will be able to sell for a break even. The stock then goes down even more. That’s when being objective and balanced isn’t possible anymore. Losses have become huge and they are trapped.
The cost is simply huge. You lost money. You lost time. There’s an opportunity cost as well as during that time other stocks would have made you a profit. You lost huge amounts of energy as you couldn’t get this stock out of your mind.

Notice I’ve made ample use of the word ‘huge’. Avoid huge losses at all cost. Avoid thinking in terms of huge gains as well. Stay balanced. Stay focused and calm.

Another Most Probable reason is..

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Nifty Analysis for 15 June

Today the all Important Inflation data for May month was released, inflation inched upto 7.55% and Core Inflation to 4.99%. The another shocker was The March inflation figure has been revised upward sharply to 7.69 percent from 6.89 percent.

So now this revision put RBI in catch 22 situation, Economy is slowing but Inflation Monster is coming down so How will Mr. Subbarao play the game as he is caught between Devil (inflation monster) and dead sea(slowing growth) will be Keenly watched on Monday ie. 18 June.

Before RBI policy the Sunday Results of Greece election will be watched by whole world as its results will decide whether Greece.. http://bit.ly/NoxhBu

Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,Ranbaxy Labs and ICICI bank

In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong.  Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool.  Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty closed below 9852 which is bearish for short term and also closed below the channel top signalling short term top may be in place.
Correction till 9580-9620 will be healthy for Bank nifty before Credit policy.

Sell below 9813 Tgt 

 

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 14 June trade in Nifty Future

1. FII bought 43618 Contracts of NF ,worth 1076 cores. Highest Buy by FII in June series before the crucial inflation data.

2. As Nifty Future was up down by 3 points and OI has increased by 26004 contracts means FII have created fresh longs in Index futures.

3. Nifty made a high of 5144 and closed above both 200 DMA@5069 and 50 DMA@5080, which is a bullish confirmation. Till 4951 is not broken Bulls have upper hand. Tomorrow we have the all important Inflation data and which if it comes at higher end will make it difficult for RBI to cut rates, so an .. http://bit.ly/MBlSYp

FII Derivative Data Analysis for 13 June trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 93  Contracts of NF ,OI increased by 20735.FII have created again longs in Index future.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 74  points and OI has increased by 20735  contracts  means FII have created fresh longs in Index futures.

3. Nifty made a high of  5129 and closed above both 200 DMA@5068 and 50 DMA@50874, which is a bullish confirmation. Many market participants were surprised by this rally as we had a worse IIP data,but flip side it increases the probability of rate cut.   Till 4938 is not broken Bulls have upper hand

4. Lets zoom into the FII Datasheet we c...

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Technical Analysis:VIP Industries,LT and HCL Tech

“Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there. In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there’s nothing more for you to do. Focus instead on those things you want least to happen and on what your response will be.”
“I know of a few multimillionaires who started trading with inherited wealth. In each case, they lost it all because they didn’t feel the pain when they were losing. In those formative first few years of trading, they felt they could afford to lose. You’re much better off going into the market on a shoestring, feeling that you can’t afford to lose. I’d rather bet on somebody starting out with a few thousand dollars than on somebody who came in with millions.”

VIP Industries

Shooting Star Candlestick formed in VIP Industries ,on Monday breaking below 76.9 will confirm the downtrend in VIP

Sell below 76.9 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 12 June trade in Nifty Future

2 Important events took place today which a trader can write down in his trading journal as Prices will always have memory and will be helpful for future trades
1. Throwing Money at market cannot solve economic problems when the underlying fundamentals are not taken care off. Span got 100 Billion Dollar bailout and Financial markets rejoiced but when market came to know about reality as Macros are still detiroating, the intial flurry of bullishness is fading away and you can see Europe back in RED and loosing all gain, specifically Spanish market which were up by 4.5% start of day are now up by just .6%. Same was discussed in our Facebook page, You can like the page to get the real time updates
2. Smart money and professional traders never trade on news, In morning we gave 5125 laxman rakha in our FaceBook Page and Nifty was unable to cross it and finally gave a downfall after S&P downgrading Indian Rating to Junk came, As a matter of fact this Report was out on 8 June and it further confirms the nexus which market Operators have with media, But I am a firm believer of price as it discount all the activity of Smart,Informed,Market Operators. So follow price and your trading system with discipline to make money.
1. FII  bought 20997  Contracts of NF ,O...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 11 June trade in Nifty Future

Spain got 100 Billion Euro of bailout from EU and World markets are in deep green up between 1.5-2%
http://sgxrtchart.blogspot.in/  SGX trading at 5130 so well above 200 DMA

1. FII  sold 6610  Contracts of NF ,OI increased by 1470. So FII after booked profit in longs near 200 DMA.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 30  points and OI has increased by 1470 contracts with total contract sold at 6670 means FII have booked profits in Index futures longs  today.

3. Nifty made a close at  5068 just above 200 DMA..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 11 June

Last Week Analysis Trend Deciding level was 4667 and Nifty made low of 4770 and bounced back with a bang. WoW basis Nifty is up by 4.7% rallying with Global markets. Next Week will be crucial and volatile as we have lot of data points coming from India Macro Perceptive.
1)12 June : IIP data for Jan 2012 (Expected 1.5%);
2) 14 June : Inflation Data (WPI);
3) 15 June : Advance Tax Payments due for Q1FY13
Euro zone agrees to lend Spain up to 100 billion euros. So Spain has become the latest causality from EU debt crises, Market rally last week has already factored this news and any initial excitement can be used to book profits in longs. Buy Rumor Sell News

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has Spiked up quiet violently on Last Friday after filling the gap of 4997 and closed above 5065. Trendline resistance now comes at 5120.

Nifty Gaps

Nifty has the following

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Why Training is Required to do trading?

How much training you need depends on the job you want. If you want to be a janitor, an hour of training might do. Just learn to attach a mop to the right end of the broomstick and find a pail without holes.If, on the other hand, you want to fly an airplane or do surgery, you’ll have to learn a great deal more. Trading is closer to flying a plane than to mopping a floor, meaning you’ll need to invest a lot of time and energy in mastering this craft. Society mandates extensive training for pilots and doctors because their errors are so deadly. As a trader, you are free to be financially deadly to yourself—society does not care, because your loss is someone
else’s gain. Flying and medicine have standards and yardsticks, as well as professional bodies to enforce them. In trading, you have to set up your own rules and be your own enforcer. Pilots and doctors learn from instructors who impose discipline on them through tests and evaluations. Private traders have no external system for learning, testing, or discipline. Our job is hard because we must learn on our own, develop discipline, and test ourselves again and again in the markets.
When we look at training for pilots and doctors, three features stand out. They are the gradual assumption of responsibility, constant evaluations, and training until actions become automatic. Let us see whether we can apply them to trading.
1. The Gradual Assumption of Responsibility
A flying school doesn’t put a beginner into a pilot’s seat on his first day. A medical student is lucky if he is allowed to take a patient’s temperature on his first day in the ..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 7 June trade in Nifty Future

Today was the Highest % close by Nifty after Dec 11. Bulls came with a bang as soon as Nifty started trading above 4909 and conformation came above 4924. But was it a short covering rally or were fresh long intitated
1. FII  bought just 8 Contracts of NF ,OI decreased by 4542. So we had an 132 points rally in NF and FII covered shorts in tune of 4542 contracts and no fresh buying Interesting days ahead !!
2. As Nifty Future was up by 132  points and OI has decreased by 4542 contracts means FII have used the rise to cover shorts, still no fresh buying seen.

3. Nifty made a high of 5010 today but..

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Technical Calls:Welspun Corp,BF Utility and PNB

Traders should always know when they plan to enter or exit a trade before they execute. By using stop losses effectively, a trader can minimize not only losses, but also the amount of times a trade is exited needlessly. Make your battle plan ahead of time so you’ll already know you’ve won the war.

Welspun Corp

Descending Triangle Formation with base as 115 and resistance at 125 So 10 points move is on cards.

Buy above 120.4 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 6 June trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 12154 Contracts of NF worth 285 cores,OI decreased by 6230.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 6  points and OI has decreased by 6230 contracts means FII have used the rise to cover shorts.

3. Nifty made a high of 4898 today but unable to sustain above it. Fibo Resistance comes at 4895 and 4924, Unable to close above 4895 means FIBO traders have intitated shorts at higher levels.
4. Nifty has formed a DOJI pattern along...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 5 June trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 15023 Contracts of NF worth 347 cores,OI increased by 25979.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 15 points and OI has increased by 25979 contracts means FII have used the rise to add shorts into the system.

3. Nifty made a low of 4770 just short of our trigger of 4767 and bounced back sharply so significance of 4767 was show today,Lets watch this level closely.

4. Bulls showed first sign of existence today with a close above 4800 and protecting 4770 in-spite of such bad global cues but will it last, A support when touched multiple times becomes prone for breakdown.You..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 4 June trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 21970 Contracts of NF worth 496 cores,OI increased by 23336.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 97 points and OI has increased by 23336 contracts means FII hace added shorts into the system.

3. Nifty will open near crucial support of 4767 which is 78.6% retracement of entire move from 4531-5630,any close below the same will increase the probability to touch the 52 week low of 4531

4. Taking an overall view of June series, things looks bearish as today was Monthly close and Nifty closed below 4950 on monthly basis which make it SELL ON RISE on Monthly time frame. Sentiment is bearish...

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Global Market Outlook:S&P 500,FTSE 100,Shanghai Index,Hangseng

S&P 500

S&P 500 has broken the 200 DMA on closing basis.Last time it broke the 200 DMA when USA was downgraded by Fitch and S&P had an 15% fall in matter of 2 weeks. Keep a Close eye

FTSE 100

FTSE is near its Crucial support levels of ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 04 June

Last Week was a shocker from Macro Point of View as India's gross domestic product growth slowed to 6.5% in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) from 8.4% a year ago and Growth was just 5.3% lowest in last 10 years.
From Global perceptive:

1. The HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China fell to 48.7 in May from 49.3 in April. This has been the seventh consecutive month that the index has come in below 50. A level below the 50 mark indicates a contracting economy.
2. US Non Farm Payroll added just 69 K and Job less rate came at  8.3%
3. Europe is on tenterhook as Bonds of Spain are reaching above 6.5% which basically means SPAIN will require a Bailout soon.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty started the June month with a 100 points fall in NF as slowing down India GDP has given reason for FII to sell followed by continuous run in INR (http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/) which closed at record low of ....


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Jesse Livermore’s trading rules

Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. If a trader doesn’t know his exit before he takes the entry, he might as well go to the racetrack or casino where at least the odds can be quantified.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before going all in.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would pile on rapidly to maximize the returns.
There are several ways to buy more in a winning position — pyramiding up, buying in thirds at predetermined prices, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry ..

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Technical Call:Bank Nifty,Tata Motors and Kotak Bank

Every trader comes in thinking they will make money, in fact if they have never traded, they probably have convinced themselves fully. They spend time looking for all the answers in charts but it is in the process. It seems like easy money. It is not easy but it is probably the best way to make money. The best of anything takes more work.

Bank Nifty

Bank NIfty has closed below 200 DMA and as discussed in last evening post FII are having highest OI in bank nifty from past 2 years so we can expect a good move in June series for Bank Nifty.

Sell below 9360 Tgt...

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