FII F&O Data analysis for August Expiry

Everyone was talking about 5600 Market is back below 5300.  This is what mass psychology is all about. Market always move in path of least resistance and path of least resistance looking at bullish environment created was on downside. Hence we have results in front of our eyes.
1. FII  sold 2041  Contracts of Index Future,worth 6 cores  with net OI decreasing by  19355 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 50  points and OI has decreased by 19355, FII have..

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Technical Calls:NMDC,PFC and Adani

“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt

Adani Enterprises

Adani has been on downward ride falling 10% in 2 days. Stock is near its downward trendline support at 151.5

Buy above 157 Tgt..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 29 Aug trade in Nifty future

 Remember, the people in pain, will be subjected to more pain during expiry. So, this month, bears are in pain, and there might be more pain for them around expiry. For this assumption to change, look for long liquidation in huge volumes in the FII OI figures.
1. FII  bought 15439  Contracts of Index Future,worth 433 cores  with net OI increasing by huge 69021 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 16  point..

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Swing and Intraday Calls:HDFC Bank,Zee LImited and IDFC

If you jump into the river like a piece of twig, you'll be pushed around and get washed away.
But if you jump in like a fish, you'll be able to deal with the flow of river.
To deal with anything, you need to educate yourself...train yourself. And if you are already a trained person in other walks of life, you get trained in the new ones quite easily.
Take your time to set your life in order and then come back to trading with preparedness

HDFC Bank

Taking support at rising trendline and break of same can lead a downmove till 50 DMA

Sell below 592 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 27 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 13648  Contracts of Index Future,worth 384 cores  with net OI increasing by 13010 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 40  points and OI has increased by 13010, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.

3. NS closed at 5350 after making the low..

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Technical Call:Bharti Airtel,REC Limited and Titan

To be successful trader Develop a poise in your mind that can withstand all swings of emotions by dealing with your daily challenges/ duties responsibly, confidently.

• Only a calm mind can deal with a hurricane.
• Only a faithful mind can receive divinity.
• Only an obedient person can become a master.

Bharti Airtel

Formed a Doji Pattern near an important support level. Bounce back should be accepted today.

Buy above 248.8...

 

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 26 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 5547  Contracts of Index Future  ,worth 147 cores  with net OI increasing by 8549 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 25  points and OI has increased by 8549, FII are booking profits in longs. No shorts have been created as per data analyzed.

3. NS closed at 5386...

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Nifty Weekly Chart Analysis for Week Beginning 26 August

Nifty continued with its positive rise 4 week in a row with rise of 20 points WoW basis, gains were trimmed at the fag end of session.
Next week, the market will be focused predominantly on the Jackson Hole Symposium which will start on Wednesday and end on Saturday. Fed’s Bernanke and ECB’s Draghi will be the main focus.
Bernanke speaks on Friday at 10 AM.
Draghi will be speaking at 12:25 PM.
The fight for functioning of Parliament is getting dirtier each passing day with BJP asking for resignation and Congress adamant on its stance  and making new strategies to counter BJP. If parliament does not function for coming week also, Capital market should get nervous as FII are pouring money in hope of reform cycle moving but without functioning of parliament ifs difficult for reforms to take place.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are respecting its trendline,Support has become resistance. Hourly close was below 50 ...

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Ten Common Reasons Traders Lose Discipline And How To Avoid Them.

There is very little that is new in the world of trading psychology but mastering the basics and mastering our mind is essential if we are to develop as highly efficient traders. The following are common discipline issues and suggestions to counteract them. Discipline is needed if you are to succeed as a Equity,Commodity or Forex trader

1. Boredom and a need to trade for the “buzz”

Try to use dead time between trades for things like self improvement training i.e. read a book by your favorite personal development guru or learn to meditate/practice Yoga! Anything that keeps you in the right frame of mind for the job of trading. A positive mindset will have a positive impact on your bottom line over time.

2. Trading when tired.

One of the great things about trading is that we can close for business whenever we want. If you are not in the correct mindset for trading then shut the shop! There will be no customers 

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Technical Calls:M&M,MTNL and IDFC

Taking too much risk. With all the warnings about risk contained in the forms with which you open your account, and with all the required warnings in books, magazines, and many other forms of literature you receive as a trader, why is it so hard to believe that trading carries with it a tremendous amount of risk? It’s as though you know on an intellectual basis that trading futures is risky, but you don’t really take it to heart and live it until you find yourself caught up in the sheer terror of a major losing trade. Greed drives traders to accept too much risk. They get into too many trades. They put their stop too far away. They trade with too little capital. We’re not advising you to avoid trading futures. What we’re saying is that you should embark on a sound, disciplined trading plan based on knowledge of the futures markets in which you trade, coupled with good common sense.

Mahindra and Mahindra

M&M has been on dream run from the low of 680 it rallied till 791. Yesterday it showed a pullback and till it do not break 768  on closing basis rally can continue further

Buy above 777 Tgt ..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 24 August Trade in Nifty Future

Nifty has rallied 3.8% in August Series, many analyst including me have pointed out the dismal volume we are seeing,but it should not deter trades to take long calls reasong being  Low volume is reason to doubt the strength of the rally, but you buy bread with realized gains, not doubts or durability.Volumes are low but that's not going to affect whether or not individuals buy or sell equities at the quoted price. Unless you're throwing around Buffett-level money, there's ample liquidity to buy or sell your entire portfolio. So just based on volumes do not deter to take longs follow the trading system and be on the right side of trade.
1. FII  bought just 13  Contracts of Index Future  ,worth -3.75 cores  with net OI increasing by 19907 contracts.So again we have this weird figure of buying of contract but total figure coming in..

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Techncial Calls: Ranbaxy,Adani Enterprises and Titan

Ignoring the downside of a trade. Most traders, when entering a trade, look only at the money they think they will make by taking the trade. They rarely consider that the trade may go against them and that they could lose. The reality is that whenever someone buys a futures contract, someone else is selling that same futures contract. The buyer is convinced that the market will go up. The seller is convinced that the market has finished going up. If you look at your trades that way, you will become a more conservative and realistic trader.

Ranbaxy

Trading within channel with channel resistance in range of 539-54.Stock has risen continuouslyfrom 474-537 without any correction so expect a pullback from 542-44 range

Sell in range of 540-42 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 23 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 7345  Contracts of NF ,worth 183 cores  with net OI decreasing by 3965 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 11  points and OI has decreased by 3965 , FII have started booking profits  Index futures. The way we fell down from 5455 NF suggests profit booking.

3. NS closed at 5413 after making the high...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 22 August Trade in Nifty Future

Rally of Disbelief continues as Nifty hit 5400 after 5 months. Many traders are thinking with such rotten fundamentals CAG scam, Opposition demnading resignation of PM,Rupee near 55 etc.still nifty is scaling new highs, Well that's the power of liquidity driven rally. Let me share an interesting fact Spanish markets which are center of European crisis, Its Stock market IBEX is up 30% from the lows it made in July 2012.

So says the Idiom never go against the trend as markets are irrational and same is getting proved now.

1. FII  bought 12968  Contracts of NF ,worth 264 cores  with net OI increasing by 12172 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 60  points..

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Technical Calls:Adani,Jindal Steel and TCS

Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound. You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.

Jindal Steel and Power

Jindal Steel is facing stiff resistance at confluence of its trendline and 50 SMA. Support comes at lower trendline,break of same will lead to a new 52 week low below 389

Sell below 398 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 21 August Trade in Nifty Future

CAG Report came market fell from high after making top of 5399.95, interesting thing to note is How emotions and sentiments are used to play the short term phenomenon is market. Everyone knew the Coalgate scam and the extent of damage to exchequer but as soon as report was tabled in the parliament Nifty reacted negatively and power stocks were the worst hit but the fall was so steep most of traders were left out. Always remember charts discount everything, Try to trade on technical system instead of doing news based trading. I have clearly mentioned suppport for Nifty at 5340 on Thursday evening and Nifty made a low of 5342 on Friday before giving a bounce back, so this is how trading using a system keeps your emotions in control and mind at peace.

1. FII  bought 12876  Contracts of NF ,worth 279 cores  with net OI increasing by 8208 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 0.35  points and OI has increased by 8208 , FII have used...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 21 August

Nifty gained strength for the 3rd consecutive week as  inflation hitting 32 month lows,  but gave up gains  due to disappointing export-import data, release of the controversial CAG reports in the parliament & rising crude prices which have crossed 115$ per barrel. 

According to CAG report, financial benefit accrued to private companies due to non-transparent allocation instead of auction of coal blocks was pegged at Rs 1.86 lakh crore. Major Companies amongst those 25 named are Reliance Power, Essar Power, Hindalco, Tata Power, Tata Steel & Jindal Steel and Power.

This has once again casted doubts on the credibility of the Government Functioning which has already been dented to a great extent by the 2G Telecom scam.News on Friday that showed CBI has not chargsheeted Kalmadi in Commonwealth game has brought a new low in the credibility of Government of India. So expect lot of volatility in Equity markets for coming week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are forming symmetrical triangle with breakout above 5400 NS.Support now exists at ...

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Trading Rules for Swing Traders

1. The first and most important rule is – in bull markets, one is supposed to be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too fast. I have before, and I suspect I’ll do it again at some point in the future. Thus, we’ve not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a position.
2. Buy that which is showing strength...

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Trading Intuition

I’ve heard from many traders that they often take decisions based on instincts. Actually, all non-quants use intuition in some form or another. If you are not using a program that takes all signals that your system produces, how do you decide between several equally good looking trading setups with similar risk to reward? Do you take them all or do you concentrate on only a few? The odds are that you are doing the latter and your ultimate choice for capital allocation is subconscious.
Even though we are defined by our decisions, we are often completely unaware of what’s happening inside our heads during the decision-making process.
Feelings ..

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Colgate Scam: Rs 1.86 lakh crore 'Coalgate' loss

Another Scam Rocked India Today Colgate Scam. So here are some compiled facts about CAG but before going through it just look at the below picture which depicts what 1.86 lakh cores can do to India.



So here are 10 facts on the issues that CAG has blasted the government over:
1. In a severe indictment of the UPA government, the CAG report on coal says that 57 coal fields, in the period 2005 to 2009, were allocated to 100 private companies instead of being auctioned or brought under competitive bidding. This, the report says, was an opaque, subjective allotment and caused these private companies to benefit to the tune of Rs 1.86 lakh crore.
2. This will be highly embarrassing for ..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 17 August Trade in Nifty Future

Grind down continues, Nifty Future range for today is just 34 points. Today we had the lowest contract traded in 2012, trading activity has come to an stand still. This is not an Indian Market based phenomenon, its happening throughout the world. Nasdaq volumes are down 40%. So choppy markets are call for the day.

1. FII  sold 501  Contracts of NF ,worth 14 cores  with net OI increasing by 3799 contracts.

2. As Nifty Future was down by 25 points...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 16 August Trade in Nifty Future

                                                        Wishing All a Very Happy Independence day...

Market rallied on 14 August wholesale price index (WPI) number, which shows a fall from 7.25 percent to 6.87 percent.Market rejoiced the number as it rekindled the hope of rate cut by RBI,but the devil lies in detail of the number July’s WPI inflation is down because of base effect in last July as index had soared to 9.36 %.
Manufacturing prices – which is what the Reserve Bank considers “core inflation” – are beginning to rise again, in the WPI have risen to 5.58 percent in July, up from 5 percent in May and June.
1. FII  bought 10832  Contracts of NF ,worth 289.48 cores  with net OI increasing by 7560 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 34 points a..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 14 August Trade in Nifty Future

The Grind down continue, another low volume day with nifty going up in dying hours of trade on low volumes. Today's total contract traded in Nifty is second lowest in 2012. Looking at FII derivative trade its seems they have lost interest in trading NF. Today's moves can be reversed tomorrow as Nifty has gone up with very less volumes.We have Inflation data coming tomorrow and also Holiday ahead on 15 August. So trading interest will remain less.
1. FII  sold 1049  Contracts of NF ,worth 27.69 cores  with net OI increasing by 22065 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 26 points and OI has increased by 22065 , FII have covered shorts and initiated fresh longs in Index futures. Volumes traded in NF warrants caution.

3. NS closed at 5348 after making a high...

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Technical Calls:SBIN,TCS and WelpsCorp

“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that  fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”
“I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.”
“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.”

SBIN

SBI has fallen on record volumes on friday as NPA as risen and technically stock broke its rising trendline.

Sell below 1876 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 13 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 323  Contracts of NF ,worth 21.28 cores  with net OI increasing by 7909 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 7909 ,  FII have started shorting the index futures in small quantity.As FII average traded price comes at a weird number of 13179 which shows they are trading in less volumes and mostly doing day trading.

3. NS closed at 5320 after making a high...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 13 August

Nifty is defying that Gravity exists with each small dips is getting bought into(Well it goes with our analysis),but if you look at the internal of market Nifty is driven higher with few stocks namely HUL,ITC and RIL. Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India have broken down after results. So we have  market rising on few stocks and poor market breadth and deteriorating fundamentals of Indian economy as Many prominent brokers have cut the GDP target of Indian Economy. But due to ample liquidity present Nifty is not breaking down. So go with the trend till the music lasts , Many trades want to short have shorted Nifty based on above facts but do not be impatient lets the signal emerge till than either be on sidelines or be on long side.  Coming week is Holiday shortened week as we have Holiday on 15 August.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are forming ascending triangle with breakout above 5380 NS.Support now exists at 5282. Till Nifty is trading above 5297 which is..

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Traders biggest enemy :HOPE

Hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man...Friedrich Nietzsche

Take an old pair of jeans and cut a hole in one of the pockets. Now, start pouring sand into that pocket. What happens? Sand runs down your leg and to the ground. What do you do? Keep pouring until the sand is up to your ankles? Your knees? Your waist?
At what point do you realize and act on the fact that no matter how much or how fast you pour sand into the empty pocket, you have a hole in your pocket? When do you come to the conclusion that you either have to stop pouring sand or just throw your pants on the ground and run away as fast as you can?
Sadly, many of you will keep pouring until you are up to your neck in sand. Suddenly, it begins to feel like quicksand and you are trapped--can't or won't get out. At this point, you ...

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Technical Calls:SBI,Bharti Airtel and Hindalco

It's Janmashtami, the auspicious occasion when Lord Krishna was born. Celebrate this holy event by spreading warm wishes and love everywhere.

Happy Janmashtami to all Readers

State Bank of India

SBI is coming with its results Today at 2 PM.Stock corrected yesterday and near its trendline support

Buy above 2004 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 10 August Trade in Nifty Future

IIP data came in -1.8% worse than expectation,reminding us that Indian Macros are rotting. So now we have typical situation Major Brokerages are downgrading Indian GDP data, India twin deficit are increasing still markets have been rallying from 5033 Nifty. This question troubles many traders how come market go up when things are looking so bad.
Well market in short term are always driven by liquidity and fundamentals will take their course in due course of action but in short term its always a liquidity driven rally so whatever be your thought process if you are going against the trend and sympathizing yourself with excuses we just discussed you are on the way of becoming a losing trader. Trade with system and keep your emotions out when you sit on your trading desk to avoid such trading mistakes.
1. FII  bought 3180  Contracts of NF ,worth 27.23 cores  with net OI increasing by 9422 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has ...

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Technical Calls:PFC,Polaris and Rel Infra

Try to use dead time between trades for things like self improvement training i.e. read a book by your favorite personal development guru or learn to meditate/practice Yoga! Anything that keeps you in the right frame of mind for the job of trading. A positive mindset will have a positive impact on your bottom line over time

PFC

PFC is showing resistance at its trendline, Break of same can lead to higher levels unable to break 190.4 will confirm lower tops pattern and lowers levels will come in days to come.

Buy above 187.2 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 9 August Trade in Nifty Future

“Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.”
Nifty has rallied from 5033 till 5393 without any correction and in straight line its not the first time its happening neither will be the last time but the attitude of maximum traders remains the same, Keep finding tops and short the market and loose money. Why traders want to short when the trend is up, let the market itself confirm the reversal and than go for the trade or stay on sidelines till you have a clear trend as per your system.
I will reiterate again there is no fun in catching the tops and bottom of market what is more important is how much points you are able to make and increase your trading account irrespective of market moves.


1. FII  bought 28568  Contracts of NF ,..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 8 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 30775  Contracts of NF ,worth 676.88 cores  with net OI increasing by 36559 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 51 points and OI has increased by 36559 contracts  means FII have added longs in Index Future, as NF has closed above the Rollover range of 5210.

3. NS closed at 5337 ,Bulls are...

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Technical Calls:RIL,Axis Bank and REC limited

Education plays an important role in shaping the way traders think about trading. A formal business education can give you an edge in understanding the economy and the market in general--but it is no guarantee of success in trading. Most of the information you learned in a formal college setting will not give you the specific knowledge necessary to be a successful trader. To succeed in trading, you must learn to perceive opportunity where most others see none--and you must seek out the information which gives you the knowledge necessary for success.

Reliance Industries

RIL posted the biggest rally for 2012 with record volumes,suggesting the bull is getting up from slumber sleep.Now Looking at daily chart and Applying Fibonacci Fans to find potential tops and bottom of RIL shows 790 is major resistance and any move above it could take it back to 820 levels.
Pullback till 760-65 should be used to buy RIL

Buy above 790 TGt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 7 August Trade in Nifty Future

King of D-Street finally woke up from long slumber and fired 6% at a shot. I am talking about Reliance Industries. It broke above 751 and made a high of 789. RIL going in such a fashion after almost 3 years and give us some intuition of big moves coming in Nifty. This is still at intial stage and we need to see further how RIL stocks move.

1. FII  sold 15894  Contracts of NF ,worth 381 cores  with net OI increasing by 10464 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 55 points and OI has increased by 10464 contracts  means FII have added longs in Index Future...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 6 August Trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 14453  Contracts of NF ,worth 348 cores  with net OI increasing by 5075 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 5 points and OI has increased by 5075 contracts  means FII have done partial profit booking in longs still no evidence of shorts getting added at higher levels, as NF has closed above the Rollover range of 5210.

3. NS closed at 5216 which is above 5203(Support are now coming down,5208 yesterday),Bulls firmly defended the support level firmly closing above 5203. We talked about the 64 point rule ..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 6 August

World markets had a hell of ride last week, Am talking in particular of Spain,Italy and peripheral Europe market,For instance Spanish market were down 8% intraday after Mr Darghi spooked the financial market, on Friday Spanish market was up by 5% again so things are getting highly volatile. Euro as a currency made a swing high and low of 1.21 to 1.24 is matter of hours. Indian markets stayed on the bullish course which started from 5033 NS and facing hurdle near 5259. Telecom Policy by TRAI  on keeping spectrum reserve price at 14K crores which is lower than 22% which might be a welcome move for the depressed telecom sector. In one reads fine print in details The biggest concession made is that telcos have to pay only one-third the auction price upfront. After this they have a two-year moratorium, and the rest is payable in 10 annual installments. In short, they have 12 years to pay up. So telecom stocks will be in focus on Monday.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are forming ascending triangle with breakout above 5267 NS.Monday should be another gap up day and its possibility we might open around...

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The Importance of Psychology in Trading

This is part of the all-important--but sometimes overlooked--aspect of "trading psychology."

I will admit that when I first got into this fascinating business, I was skeptical of the whole "trader psychology" thing. My main concern at that time was learning as much about markets and technical analysis as I could--and my trading mentality or psychology would take care of itself. However, the more I learned about the markets and about trading, the more I realized human nature and psychology play huge roles in both.
The following are some valuable "nuggets" regarding trading psychology that I pulled out of the TAG workbook. It's my hope that one or more of these "nuggets" will help you better understand your own trading psychology and the importance of psychology in trading markets.

• Remember that becoming a profitable trader is a journey, not just a destination. The perfect trader does not yet exist. Try to become a better trader each day and enjoy the progress you make. Concentrate on learning the craft of technical analysis and on improving your trading skills, rather than focusing solely on the amount of profit or losses in your trading.
• Congratulate yourself and..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 3 August Trade in Nifty Future

US Fed Disappointed, ECB disappointed Market Reaction after Draghi speech – http://bit.ly/OLjrY5. Draghi has asked the Spain to come with a formal bailout request and Spain Index IBX is down 8% from highs of day. EU is down between 2-3% from highs of the day. So what shall we expect out of Nifty, Will Nifty follow the suit or will it outperform.
1. FII  sold 3595  Contracts of NF ,worth 86 cores  with net OI increasing by 13721 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by ...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 2 August Trade in Nifty Future

All Eyes on US Fed will he deliver another QE3 more liquidity to Financial markets or he just sit tight for situation to get worse. QE1 and QE 2 have done nothing till date What will QE3 do ? Readers views are invited.
1. FII  sold 1048  Contracts of NF ,worth 59 cores  with net OI increasing by 13556 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by..

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Technical Calls:IDFC,Rel Infra and Rcom

Reliance Infra

Rel Infra is breaking an Important resistance zone of 506,Break of same will lead the upmove till 531

Buy above 506 Tgt 510,514,525 and 531

RCOM

RCom after a waterfall decline stock is forming a base formation and a ...

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