Intraday Swing Calls:Dish TV,Hexaware and Bata India

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success.” – Mark Douglas

Dish TV

Dish TV as we covered yesterday did 75.9, Now stock is near its crucial trend line resistance of 75.9Break of 75.9 stock can see continuation in current uptrend.

Buy above 76 Tgt..

 

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FII Derivative Statistics for 1 Nov Trade in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future

1. FII sold 5940 Contracts of Index Future,worth 169 cores with net OI increasing by 2294contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 18 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 2294, so FII went longs today after several days in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.

3. NS closed at 5620 after making a high of 5624  and low of 5583. As discussed yesterday levels to watch is 5585  and today Nifty made a low of 5583 and bounced back, But unable to brea..

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Technical Calls: Dish TV,LIC Housing Finance and Bharat Forge

“In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong.  Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool.  Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money”

Bharat Forge

Bharat Forge will be coming with it results today. Stock has strong base at 269-271 levels and holding the same tomorrow can see a bounceback.

Buy above 276 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Statistics for 31 October Trade in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future

RBI disappointed the market with NO rate cut but giving a Hint of  possible rate easing in Next Meeting Nifty used it as an excuse to break the trading range of 5635-5725. As per our analysis Trend was Sell on Rise so traders must have profited out from today's fall.
1. FII sold 23029 Contracts of Index Future,worth 535 cores with net OI decreasing by 14373 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down 74 points ..

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Intraday Swing Calls:HUL,PFC and Maruti

A common trait among newer traders, or among traders that are not profitable is a need for perfection. With so much noise in the media, blogs, and forums about calling tops and bottoms, one would think it’s a trader’s job to predict such things. Expecting to nail the top or bottom is a recipe for frustration and inconsistent performance.

Hindustan Unilever

HUL is in its BUll market and Dips should be used to Buy. Stock is currently trading near its important short term support of 50 SMA.

Buy above 548 Tgt...

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How to Trade Nifty and Bank Nifty ahead of RBI rate cut decision

RBI macro view on Indian Economy was out today and the most important take away was:
"Monetary policy needs to be cautious in the interim, focusing on inflation while using the available space to support growth to the degree it can,"
It indicates interest rates are likely to go down but will it be tomorrow as Diwali gift, Mystery will be resolved tomorrow 11 AM.
1. FII sold 4589 Contracts of Index Future,worth 120 cores with net OI decreasing by 7175 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 3 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 7175, so FII again liquidated longs which were rollovered from October series.Nifty  formed a doji candle pattern...


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Intraday Swing Calls:Dish TV,NCC and BHEL

You always want to be careful to ask yourself those questions that will get you where you want to go?  “How can I become a better trader?”  “How else can I become a  better trader?” are both good questions.  Never ask yourself toxic questions such as “Why do I always lose?”  Worse still, “Why am I such a loser?”  As Carl Jung said, “To ask the right question is already half the solution of a problem.”

BHEL

BHEL will be coming out with its results today, stock has formed strong support along 237 odd levels. Resistance exists at 248.

Buy above 243.8 Tgt...

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FII Statistics – Details on Derivatives FII Statistics for 29 Oct

Cabinet Reshuffle done with young guns inducted , PM ruling out possibility of  early election will be a sentiment booster for Capital Markets. RBI policy on Tuesday will Keep nifty volatile till Tuesday 11 PM. 
1. FII sold 12946 Contracts of Index Future,worth 353 cores with net OI decreasing by 5158 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 48 points and  Open Interest in ...

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 29 October Part II

Nifty Fibonacci Retracement

Nifty Fibonacci Retracements from 5217-5815 are drawn in above chart,Major support at 61.8% Golden ratio at 5585 and Resistance at 5687

Nifty Fibonacci Fans

As discussed earlier Fibo Fans helps in finding potential tops and Bottom of market from short term prospective. If we see the chart closely Nifty has formed a swing top at 5815 as discussed in previous week analysis.Break of

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 29 October Part I

Equity markets had a tranquil week as Nifty continue to move in sideways mode,ended the week on a flat note.October  Derivative expiry also was unable to move market out of its slumber state and November Expiry started on profit booking mode but Nifty continue to trade in range of 5635-5725. Next Week Key events are lined up which can help Nifty is giving either a breakout or Breakdown. Earning season is going OK and providing lots of Trading opportunities.
Sunday: Possible reshuffle in cabinet; JSW Steel (JSTL.NS) earnings
Monday: BHEL (BHEL.NS) earnings, RBI macro-economic report on the economy (1700 IST)
Tuesday: Key earnings: Maruti Suzuki India (MRTI.NS), Glenmark Pharma (GLEN.NS), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (REDY.NS), Biocon (BION.NS); RBI policy decision (1100 IST)
Wednesday: Fiscal deficit data, infrastructure output data
Thursday: HSBC manufacturing PMI for October (1030 IST)
Friday: Wipro (WIPR.NS) earnings; bank credit and forex reserves data

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts are trading in a range 5722-5651 and have reached the oversold range with positive divergence seen on Hourly time range. If 5635 is not broken on Monday another leg up till 50 Hour SMA ..


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Understanding Cost Of Carry for Derivatives

WHAT IS COST OF CARRY?
In derivates market, the cost of carry (CoC) of a futures contract is the cost incurred on holding positions in the underlying security until the expiry of the futures. The cost includes the risk free interest rate and excludes any dividend payouts from the underlying. CoC  is the difference between the futures and spot prices of a stock or index. It is commonly used to interpret market sentiment for the stock or index, as higher values of CoC indicate traders are willing to pay more for holding futures. In the case of commodity futures, CoC also includes other expenses like storage.

 HOW IS IT CALCULATED?
Theoretically, Future price fair value=Spot Price+Cost of Carry-Dividend Payout.
In practical terms, CoC of equity derivatives ...

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Is Market a Battlefield for You?

Have you ever heard something like "The market is a battle, be ready to fight with all you've got," or "The market is a war," or any variation of this theme? I bet you have, it's a fairly common theme. But is it true, or better question might be: is this a mindset that you want to adopt?

Don't get me wrong - by no means do I want to present a marketplace as a happy place where refined gentlemen high-five your each win (hmm, do refined gentlemen high-five at all? or they back-slap only?) and console you with fine whiskey and cigar after each loss. No, they are out to get you just as much as you - them. In that sense, anyone in the market is an enemy of anyone else. But that's not really the point. The point is, is kind of attitude toward the marketplace and its happenings going to help you survive it, navigate it successfully? Or is it going to undermine your success?
If the market is war for you,

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Intraday Swing Calls:IDFC,LT and Adani

Trading should be effortless.
A true piece of wisdom. In my experience when I trade well it is like shooting fish in a barrel. Almost everything works. I don’t need to be overly patient with positions. The money comes in very fast. That’s exactly how trading should be. The exact opposite was the case during the first 2 months of this year. So I did what I had to do. I recognized the situation for what it was and admitted my efforts were not leading my portfolio anywhere. It was like folding when you are dealt a bad hand in poker. So I folded. Now I am waiting for the next hand. If it is a bad one I fold again. If a series of trades start to really go my way I push it hard and increase exposure and trade aggressively.

Larsen and Tubro

LT came with a good set of Numbers and achieved all the targets which we gave yesterday. Stock is looking for a fresh breakout today above 1675

Buy above 1675 Tgt ...

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FII Statistics – Details on Derivatives FII Statistics for 23 Oct

1. FII bought 8090  Contracts of Index Future,worth 236.01 cores with net OI increasing by 78396 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 36 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 78396,so  FII covered shorts and initiated fresh longs  in Nifty Future and Bank Nifty.An important point to note today's traded contract in Index future is highest in the month of October so is this the hint that we will break the 90 points range of 5635-5725 on Upside?

3. NS closed at 5719 after making a high..

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 22 October Part I

Nifty made the top at 5815 in September,Flash crash occurred hurting the sentiments and Nifty made a 100 Points range 5635-5725 and since has been oscillating in that range from past 8 trading sessions.The law of moving average always suggests when get heavily loaded on a single side consolidation is the name of game, So after a huge breakout from 5217 we have a straight line rise till 5800 so nifty needs to capture is breath and consolidation was the name of game. Other reasons which we can attributed are most of traders and mass psychology for 6000 and market is always having the habit to beat the street and moving the line of least resistance.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart took resistance at 50 Hourly SMA at 5682, Till 5700 is not crossed on hourly basis nifty will be under selling pressure. We will get a gap down opening on monday and if we do not break 5635 another leg up till 5700 is possible.

Nifty Gaps

Gaps formation in Nifty ...

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 22 October Part II

Nifty Fibo Retracement

Nifty Fibonacci Retracements from 5217-5815 are drawn in above chart,Major support at 61.8% Golden ratio at 5585 and Resistance at 5687

Nifty Fibonacci Fans

As discussed earlier Fibo Fans helps ...

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Trading Your Emotions: How to Cope with Psychological Pressures

Trading is Buying and selling securities or commodities on a short-term basis, hoping to make quick profits.You might hear of rags to riches stories or traders boasting about the money they made in a trade. Its am exciting business but the fact is only 5% of traders are able to make money on a consistent basis.
If you have ever interacted with  Successful traders he would say  that psychology and emotions are 80% of the battle.
Do not overestimate your ability to be unaffected by emotion.
Real Life vs. the Trading Terminal
Have you ever imagined why doctors,engineers, and maths graduate who are quiet strong in analytical skills  have burnt hands in trading ?
The pressure and stress you’ll face...

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Intraday Swing Calls:Maruti,IDFC and Raymonds

Anyone who enters the financial markets expecting to be right on most of their trades is in for a rude awakening. If you think about it, it’s a lot like hitting a Four runs in Cricket — the best players only get hits 30 to 40% of the time. But a good player knows that the hits usually help a lot more than the strikeouts hurt. The reward is greater than the risk.

Maruti

Pennant formation in Maruti with resistance at 1388 and Support at 1370

Buy above 1389 Tgt...

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FII Statistics – Details on Derivatives FII Statistics for 19 Oct

1. FII bought 2056 Contracts of Index Future,worth 35.7 cores with net OI increasing by  23632 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 67 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 23632,so  FII again took  longs  in longs of Nifty Future and Bank Nifty and covered shorts.

3. NS closed at 5717 after ..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 18 Oct trade in Nifty Future

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be up or down. The thing is to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him. Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations. Sock-market postmortems don’t pay dividends.- Jesse Livermore
The above quote from Livermore is apt for current market conditions. We have been trading in a narrow range 5715-5635 from past 4 trading sessions, Volatility has collapsed, so where will the nifty go either it will breakout or breakdown . Let see how FII have positioned themselves.
1. FII bought 7680 Contracts of Index Future,worth 197 cores with net OI increasing by just 438 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 18 points ..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 17 Oct trade in Nifty Future

1. FII sold 4693 Contracts of Index Future,worth 133 cores with net OI decreasing by 12451 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 51 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 12451,so  FII booked profits in longs of Nifty Future and Bank Nifty.Zoom in from start of October Series FII net Open Interest was 5.13 Lakhs NF at5729 ..

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FII F&O Data analysis for 15 Oct trade in Nifty Future

Infosys Results were as per market expectation but future growth remains a point of concern and market thrashed the stock, HDFC results were good with NPA coming down lets see market rreaction today. We have Inflation data coming for September today and its the data after diesel price hike so will be keenly watched. Also Reliance results today evening so expect a volatile session today.
1. FII sold 11248 Contracts of Index Future,worth 288.47 cores with net OI decreasing by 11938 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 52 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by...

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Technical Intraday Swing Calls:Pantaloon,IDFC and Dabur

In any particular trade you never really know how far prices will travel from any given point. If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade. From a psychological perspective this characteristic will allow you to indulge yourself in the illusion that each trade has the potential of fulfilling your wildest dream of financial independence. Based on the consistency of market participants and their potential to act as a force great enough to move prices in your direction, the possibility of having your dreams fulfilled may not even remotely exist.

Pantaloon

Stock is in downtrend till 198 is not crossed. Support exists at 184.

Buy above 193.3 Tgt..

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 15 October

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart took resistance at 50 Hourly SMA at 5700, Till 5700 is not crossed on hourly basis nifty will be under selling pressure.

Nifty Gaps

Gaps formation in Nifty Daily chart pattern, 7 gaps in the range of  5077-5600. Do note the GAP formed from 5435-5526 was Breakaway Gap

• 5043-5077

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Technical Intraday Swing Calls:SBI,Cipla and Pantaloon

Don’t think about what the market’s going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you’re going to do if it gets there. In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there’s nothing more for you to do. Focus instead on those things you want least to happen and on what your response will be

SBIN

SBIN has been downgraded by S&P and stock is looking weak on charts. Stock has given a fake breakout above 2278.

Sell below 2218 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 11 Oct trade in Nifty Future

1. FII bought 34232 Contracts of Index Future,worth 1012.37 cores with net OI decreasing by 20284 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up down by 51 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures decreased by 20284,so  FII have booked profits in shorts  in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.Fresh longs have not been created as nifty is moving in Sideways zone after big rally from 5200-5800.

3. NS closed at 5652 after making a ..

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Technical Intraday Swing Calls:IDFC,Bharti Airtel and Pantaloon

1. FII bought 2375 Contracts of Index Future,worth -6.88 cores with net OI increasing by 8405 contracts. As FII were buyers but net amount came as negative which means FII sold in Opening and bought at the fag end of session. Consider the following example Sell 9 unit at Rs 7 and Buy 10 Unit at 6 so net unit comes as 1 and value comes to Rs-4.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 22 points a...


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Technical Intraday Swing Calls:IDFC,Bharti Airtel and Pantaloon

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

Bharti Airtel

Bharti is on the verge of breaking the symmetrical triangle Its a 40 point triangle so price target comes to 230 odd levels.

Sell below 262 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 09 Oct trade in Nifty Future

1. FII bought 8788  Contracts of Index Future,worth 228.74 cores with net OI increasing by 15070 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 75 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 15070,so  FII have taken shorts in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.

3. NS closed at 5676 and broke the previous swing low of..

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Technical Calls:SBIN,Infosys and PFC

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be up or down. The thing is to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him. Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations. Sock-market postmortems don’t pay dividends.- Jesse Livermore

SBIN

SBI is near its trendline support of 2261,Break of same can lead to 2160 which is support area.

Sell below 2260 Tgt...

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A Great Way To Build Self-Discipline in Trading

Having self-discipline is having the ability to follow through on your plans and goals.  Often times we get tugged in various directions and enticed by making choices that don’t help us along our path to our goals and fulfillment.

“The path of least resistance is what makes all rivers and some men crooked.”   – Napoleon Hill

Self-discipline is the ability to make the conscious choice (ultimately it becomes a habit) of doing the thing that will move you towards your goal – and sometimes it’s the hard or unnatural or unpopular thing to do.  It’s foregoing instant gratification for the longer term objective.  Typically, however, people operate on autopilot and this is dangerous when you have not yet developed the right ‘habits’ for success.
In the trading game, you must have self-discipline. You must look at the entire forest and not focus on one tree.  If you get too caught up in each and every trade, you will lose sight of the larger goal.
The key is to care a lot about your overall trading progress, but not care too much about any individual trade.
Your Identity also plays..

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Intraday Swing Calls: Apollo Tyre,Rcom and Ashok Leyland

Successful traders accept and expect losses. Losses are endemic to trading; they are the cost of doing business. The consistently successful trader accepts deep in his heart that his winnings will be tempered with inevitable loss. But the trader anticipates his ultimate triumph because he has structured the probabilities in his favor”.-LBR

“To be a successful trader you need to trade without fear. When you use fear as a resource to limit yourself, you will create the very conditions you are trying to avoid. Or to say this another way, you will experience your fears.”-Mark Douglas

Reliance Communication

Rcom took support at 60.8 after 10 days of consolidation in the range of 65-60,Stocks look good to get out of the range if 60.8 is broken on downside.

Sell below 60.4 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 8 Oct trade in Nifty Future

1. FII sold 20475  Contracts of Index Future,worth 616 cores with net OI increasing by 26859 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 49 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 26859,so  FII have taken shorts in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.Big Bang Reform as discussed in last thursday turn out to be Buy Rumor and Sell news kind of event and dramatic event of Flash crash also occurred.

3. NS closed at 5747 after making a..

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Nifty Weekly Outlook for Week Starting 08 October

Flash Crash Nifty  has been dramatic and opens a can of worms on how vulnerable are capital markets to human error where a dealer punching a wrong number can lead to a900 point fall in Nifty and a algorithm going berserk can cause a 440Millon $ loss to Knight capital in US (Happened on 22 Aug 2012).
Coming week Infosys will be declaring its Q4 results on 12 October and we have IIP data also. Also investor sentiment took a beating after what happened on Friday.
Do remember Flash Crash are call of future as happened in past history when NF crashed from 5300-5000 on 20  April 2012 or the May 2011 crash of Dow Jones of 1000 points. All rates were seen after few months, so lets see WILL this time history repeat?
Whats in store for next week lets jump and see the Nifty technical outlook

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart took support at channel bottom of  5706. Close look at Hourly chart reveals 11 Hourly candles retraced in a single red candle which shows the case of fast retracement .Till we hold 5690-5706 range possible move till 5815-5852 do exists.

Are Nifty Gaps Filled after Flash crash?

Many traders have asked me is the gap filling completed in Nifty after we saw it falling till 4888. My answer is emphatic NO.
Let me put down my reasoning ..

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Flash Crash Black Friday for Nifty and Nifty 50 Stocks

Everything was going right in favor of Bulls Government doing big bang reforms, FII whose bags are flusehed with liquidity by ECB and Fed are bullish on india and Buying heavily and Nifty trading at 18 months high. But it took a single trade to give a blow to sentiment, Friday 05 Oct 2012 will go in as Black Friday when the flash crash happened in Indian Stock market. Prices of Blue Chips mostly in Nifty 50 stocks were down by 20-25% as shown in below screenshot. Click on Images to enlarge them.

The 50-share Nifty hit its lower circuit filter Friday as spot prices dropped over 900 points to a low of 4,888.

Sell orders worth Rs 650 crore executed by...

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Intraday Calls:Sun Pharma, PFC and TATA Steel

Afraid of “pulling the trigger” – This usually means that the trader does not have a system or approach already in place. They have not calculated risk/reward and many times, these trades are unplanned. This also comes after a string of losses. They don’t want to be “wrong again”. There is no trust from within and an obviously lack of confidence.

Tata Steel

Ascending triangle formation with multiple tops at 415 levels and 200 DMA hanging at 421.

Buy above 412 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 5 Oct trade in Nifty Future

Indian Government has unleashed second wave of  Big Bang Reform 2:Cabinet clears FDI in insurance, pension sector http://bit.ly/PYLlzI .
Nifty had already had an inkling about this and the reason After showing seven sessions of small range trading sessions which we discussed yesterday consolidation with positive bias , Nifty finally staged upside breakout of the overhead resistance of 5740-45 and made a fresh 18 month high of 5807.
Will this rally continue lets see how FII are trading the market?
1. FII bought 24911  Contracts of Index Future,worth 714 cores with net OI decreasing by 1843 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 57 points and  Open Interest in ...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 4 Oct trade in Nifty Future

Nifty is under consolidation with positive bias  from past 2 trading sessions,this consolidation should not be taken as the sign of weakness as Nifty is closing successfully above 5700 with fresh 52 week high. So please do not short the market as its not moving higher wait for the signal to emerge. Its better to wait on sidelines and watch the show till you get a clear signal.

1. FII bought 33707  Contracts of Index Future,worth 970 cores  with net OI increasing by 28587 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 14 points and  Open Interest in..

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Swing and Intraday Call:IDFC,Sintex and Apollo Tyre

Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about what really underlies that type of discipline. The answer……true self-confidence.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent and the market’s goal is to extract the most money from the largest group of people.

IDFC

IDFC stock is at its 52 week high of 162 near its trend line resistance.Unable to cross 163 can lead to pullback 160 odd levels.

Buy above 163 Tgt...

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FII F&O Data analysis for 3 Oct trade in Nifty Future

The father of the nation with the tools of truth and nonviolence,
Freed our nation from imperialism,
Follow path of truth and wisdom,
Pay homage to this great leader on Gandhi Jayanti & always.....

1. FII bought 3254  Contracts of Index Future,worth 93.15 cores  with net OI increasing by 6544 contracts. SGX Nifty is trading at 5791 so another gap up on cards.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 25 points and  Open Interest in Index Futures increased by 6544,so  FII have initiated longs  in  Index Future longs in Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures.

3. NS closed at 5719 after making a high ..

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Technical Calls:Biocon,PFC and Bharti Airtel

Using money you can’t afford to lose – Usually, a trader is pinning his/her last hopes to make money. Traders fear “losing” the “last best opportunity”. Self-discipline is quickly forgotten but the power of greed drives them, usually over a cliff. Here, the rewards are given more attention and overall personal financial risk is ignored.

Biocon

Bicon trading in a perfect channel and at the top end of channel, breakout will happen on a close above 286.

Buy above 286 Tgt...

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