FII FnO Analysis for last trading day of 2013

• FIIs sold 1225 contracts of Index Future  worth 42 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 2603 contracts, so FII's added  shorts in today's session.
  

Nifty opened with a gap up made a high of 6344 and pulled back, as discussed in last analysis. 6259 still holds the key for bulls,Holding the same we can see a bounce back

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Nifty trading strategy for the first week of 2014

Market last week has been trading in a very narrow range led by reduced institution activity on the back of Christmas and New Year holiday.Action was in Midcaps/Smallcaps as both Index were up by 3.6% and 2.5% respectively. As we approach last week of the calendar year and NAV adjustments are likely to take place.FII flows will be keenly watched to see if the reduction in Federal Reserve’s stimulus has any impact on these investments.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts  are forming ascending triangle, with breakout coming above 6326, Unable to do so we can dip towards 6260 levels in coming 2 days.

 

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Traders’ Resolutions for the New Year-2014

As the finale of 2013 approaches, we are each presented with an opportunity to reflect back while looking towards the future. The dawning of a new year is the perfect time to set new goals and embark down uncharted paths. Now is the time to plan your Resolution.

What are our top trading resolutions for 2014?

D  iscipline
R  esults
I  ntegrity
V  ictory (Over Emotions)
E  ducation

Discipline

Most traders could benefit from being more disciplined with their trading. Discipline in trading takes many forms. But it can be summarized as just doing ..

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Nifty FII data analysis for Jan Series

Nifty continued to trade above the channel but again failed to close above 6300 level for 3 day. Today was another day of consolidation, 3 days of consolidation. Nifty should hold ..

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Apollo Tyre,HPCL and Canara Bank trading bets

Apollo Tyre

Positional traders should keep an eye on close above 102, for short term target of 110. Any close below 97 stock is heading back to 94 in short term.

Buy above 101 Tgt..

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Nifty December Expiry View

• FIIs bought 6507 contracts of Index Future  worth 212 cores (25435 Longs contract  were added and 18298 shorts contract  were added ) with net Open Interest increasing by 44363 contracts, so FII's added longs and shorts in today's session.
  

Nifty continued to trade above the channel but again failed to close above 6300 level. Today was another day of consolidation and tomorrow being  expiry as 25 expect some..

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Nifty trading strategy for 24 Dec

• FIIs bought 16492 contracts of Index Future  worth 537 cores (10325 Longs contract  were added and 6167 shorts contract  were covered) with net Open Interest increasing by 4158 contracts, so FII's added longs and also covered shorts in today's session.
  

Nifty continued to trade above the channel but

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The Psychology of Trading

Trading  successfully is not an easy game. Many people may think it is a difficult venture due to the fact that it is a complicated process and the markets move much too fast. There may be a little bit of truth to that, but in reality the downfall of most  traders lies in the fact that most traders defeat themselves.
The markets are setup to confuse the greatest number of people and that is why psychology plays such an important role in trading.

Cannot Make the Trade

You’ve done your research and the market is exactly where you want to buy it. Everything looks good, but you hesitate. You’ve been burned on your last ..

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Nifty Weekly Analysis ahead of Dec Expiry 2013

Last week Chopad level of 6187, Nifty did 1 target on downside and 2 target on upside. Last Week  was roller coaster ride for Stock market traders/investor as Fed did the taper and RBI kept the rate unchanged, Both events took the market participants by surprise.The market may remain volatile and trade in a range as we head into FNO expiry trading week. FII flows will be closely watched as we approach last week of the calendar year and NAV adjustments are likely to take place.Stock market remains closed on Wednesday, 25 December 2013, on account of Christmas.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts  are forming a contracting range, Maket are likely to remain range bound in coming week and should give directional move in January. As most of FII's are on leave so volumes will come down and choppy moves will be call for next week.

 

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FII Data Analysis for 23 Dec for NF and BNF

• FIIs bought 10914 contracts of Index Future  worth 347 cores (21464 Longs contract  were added and 10550 shorts contract  were added) with net Open Interest increasing by 32014 contracts, so FII's added longs but again not a blowout rally is offing as they added shorts.
  

As discussed in last analysis Nifty..

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Why Traders Lose Money ?

One of the most frustrating things a trader can experience is being dead on right about a trade, taking it, BUT.. still losing money! How can this be? This can happen in five different ways, each of the first four contain a lesson for better planning the fifth way to lose money in this list is just part of the game.

1. You enter your trade correctly and it goes in your favor, BUT… you do not have the right exit strategy to capture your profits and they evaporate due to not having a trailing stop or waiting to long to exit to bank those profits. Sometimes winners even turn into big losers win not managed correctly. You have to have a plan to take profits while they are there.
2. You enter the right trade BUT… at the wrong time, you either exit not allowing your trade enough time to work or you are stopped out but do not have a plan to get yourself back in the trade with the right set up. The right trade with the wrong timing pays nothing.
3. You have the right entry..

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Trader's No 1 Enemy

The foundation of trading is interconnected
As most traders know, trading is finding the correct equilibrium of proper risk management, good analysis and trade strategies, efficient money management, and a balanced (trading) psychology. A trader cannot be successful if one of the elements is not sufficiently developed. Similar to a building, if one of the walls is not properly built, the entire structure might collapse. Our trading is the equivalent of that building and our risk & money management, strategies and psychology are all integral part of that structure.
As mentioned earlier in this article we are focusing on the psychological part of the structure. However it should be clear that everything is interconnected. Any particular trading strategy only works well for traders who have the matching psychology. A good psychology only has positive effects when proper risk management is used. As you can see, all are interrelated.
Trading psychology
The field of trading psychology is

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Quotes for Trading

1. Don’t try making sense out of it. You’re in an insane asylum – things are not going to make sense, people will do things that don’t make sense, that they cannot adequately explain. People don’t know what makes them tick, only that they tick.
2. Happiness, of course…is all in your head. If you don’t know that, if you haven’t come to that realization, you will never be happy.
3. The Bull Market Syndrome. People, when they are met with success, take personal credit for it (bull markets breed geniuses), and when they are met with failure, blame luck.
4. Actually, luck is responsible for both! If you can only die by being struck by lightning, eventually, you will die by being struck by lightning! Conversely, i

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Nifty gets Rajan effect, Will Fed oblige the bulls

• FIIs bought 18028 contracts of Index Future  worth 549 cores (26909 Longs contract  were added and 8881 shorts contract  were added) with net Open Interest increasing by 35790 contracts, so FII's added longs and short both before the Fed event bias remains on long side though.
  

RBI governor Raghuram Rajan played Santa for the Indian stock markets today by retaining the repo rate and fueling the much expected bounceback as we have been discussing in our past analysis.

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RBI Holds Policy Rates ,CRR -REPO RATE :Unchanged

Monetary and Liquidity Measures
On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:

• keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 7.75 per cent; and
• keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.0 per cent of net demand and time liability (NDTL).

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 6.75 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 8.75 per cent.
Assessment
The outlook for global growth continues to remain moderate, with an uneven recovery across industrial countries. Activity in major emerging market economies (EMEs) barring China has decelerated on account of weak domestic demand, notwithstanding some improvement in export performance. While

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Nifty falls for 7 days, Bounceback on cards, FII Data analsysi

• FIIs sold 18341 contracts of Index Future  worth 564 cores (3387 Longs were added and 21728 shorts were added ) with net Open Interest increasing by 25115 contracts, so FII's partially adding long but still aggressive on shorts  in Index Futures.
  

Nifty continued to fall for 7 straight days, falling for 269 points and took support at..

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Fed's dreaded 'taper' may not hurt after all

For all the hang-wringing on Wall Street about the Federal Reserve's expected "taper," you'd think the central bank was considering a ban on helicopter flights to the Hamptons.

Take a deep breath. For most of the rest of us, the Fed's "tapering" of its massive money flows into the U.S. economy could actually spell good news.

The "tapering" you may have heard about refers to a gradual easing up on the central bank's response to the financial collapse of 2008. Beginning in November that year, the Fed began buying up hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Treasury bonds -along with dodgy mortgage debt-in exchange for cash that it conjured out of thin air.

Unlike you and me, the Fed can take a pile of debt, swap it for cash, and then hang onto that debt until it reverses the process later, which takes cash back out of the economy. The idea..

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Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook before RBI, Fed policy

Next week will be crucial for Bank Nifty  as government will unveil data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for November 2013 on Monday WPI is seen easing a bit at 6.9% in November 2013, from 7% in October 2013 and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a two-day policy meeting on interest rates in the United States on 17-18 December 2013 and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces next Mid-Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2013-14 on Wednesday, 18 December 2013. So expect volatile move in Bank nifty based on events ahead.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts are showing positive divergence in leading indicators holding

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Trading The Technicals: Buy The "December Triple Witching" Dip

The S&P 500 is set to resume higher, according to BofAML's Macneil Curry pointing to the week of December Triple Witching as historically one strongest of the year for the S&P500. With fundamentals a thing-of-the-past, paying attention to the technicals in a world of one driver of stocks (Fed balance sheet), for short-term trading signals may have some value. Of course, with an 'event' as potentially huge as the FOMC meeting this week, adding risk on an already good year (when the world already believes a taper is "priced in") may be more greatest fool than momo monkey.

Via BofAML,
S&P500 set to resume higher
The week ahead should take its cue from US equities. This Friday is December Triple Witching (the term used for the quarterly expiry of US equity index futures, options on equity index futures and equity options). Consistently the week of December Triple Witching is one strongest of the year for the S&P500. In the 31 years since the creation of equity index futures, the S&P500 has risen 74% of the time during this week. More recently, it has risen in ten..

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Nifty Weekly Outlook before RBI, Fed policy

Last week was roller coaster ride for Stock market traders/investor. Market opened up with huge gap up on BJP state election victory and blue channels were saying target of 6700-6800. Correction started on same day and in next 4 trading days nifty corrected 254 points and now many analyst is calling for target of 6000 sub levels. So with a fall of just 250 points how sentiments moved from extreme bullishness to excessive bearishness. In such taxing times only saviour for trader is to have a trading system and trust the same.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts looks like a chart of mid cap low liquid stock with so many gap down, Positive divergences visible on Hourly chart Holding 6141-6170 range pullback till ..

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Reward of being a Successful trader

Trading seems so easy: Find a good setup, place a bet, close out the trade and take home the profits. Enduring trading success is easier said than done, however. Trading experts note that even those traders who achieve early success don't maintain it. It's easy to make a series of profitable trades early in one's career; the difficulty is trading profitably day after day, week after week, year after year.
When it comes to maintaining profitability over the long term, one must look deep into one's psychological makeup and ask and answer tough questions:

• Why am I trading?

• What do I get out of it?

• Why should I continue to trade?

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How to Unlock Trading Success

If you want to be a winner trading in the long run there are THREE elements of trading that you must have in place. If you do these three things you can not lose in the long term, if you are missing one you will likely not last very long as an active trader. These three simple things work together to keep you profitable in the markets.

A Robust Methodology

You must trade a WINNING trading method: Your trading system must be valid and profitable through past markets. The best way to win in the markets is to have a method that identifies potential trends and gives you entries and exits that put the probabilities on your side for winning trades. Many times these systems will have huge winners that pay for all the small losses and make you profitable. Regardless of time frame the primary thing all traders are in search of for profitability is trend capture.

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Ghost Of 1929 Re-Appears - Pay Attention To The Signals

They say those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.
As a student of market history, I’ve seen that maxim made true time and again. The cycle swings fear back to greed. The overcautious become the overzealous. And at the top, the story is always the same: Too much credit, too much speculation, the suspension of disbelief, and the spread of the idea that this time is different.
It doesn’t matter whether it was the expansion of railroads heading into the crash of 1893 or the excitement over the consolidation of the steel industry in 1901 or the mixing of speculation and banking heading into 1907. Or whether it involves an epic expansion of mortgage credit, IPO activity, or central-bank stimulus. What can’t continue forever ultimately won’t.
The weaknesses of the human heart and mind means the swings will always exist. Our rudimentary understanding of the forces of economics, which in turn, reflect ultimately reflect the fallacies of people making investing, purchasing, and saving decisions, means policymakers will never defeat the vagaries of the business cycle.
So no, this time isn’t ..

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True Story of Warren Buffett vs the Salad Oil Swindler

Fifty years ago, John F. Kennedy was assassinated on Friday, November 22, 1963 in Dallas, Texas. The assassination not only shocked the nation, but shook the stock market as well. However, very few people have heard about The Great Salad Oil Swindle which nearly crippled the New York Stock Exchange that weekend. Officials at the NYSE took advantage of the closure of the exchange to keep the crisis caused by the swindle from spreading further. Here is what happened at the NYSE while the nation focused on the President’s funeral.
Salad Oil, Cornered and Quartered
The Great Salad Oil Swindle was carried out by Anthony “Tino” De Angelis, who traded vegetable oil (soybean oil) futures which was an important ingredient in salad oil. De Angelis had previously been involved in a swindle involving the National School Lunch Act and the Adolph Gobel Co. When it was discovered that he had overcharged the government and delivered over 2 million pounds of uninspected meat, he ended up bankrupt. Con-men don’t stop being cons, they just try to learn from their mistakes and make more money the next time around.
Tino de Angelis had learned ...

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India Stock Market Reaction if Fed starts to taper

US companies added 215,000 jobs in November, the most in a year, in a positive sign for the US economic recovery, the ADP National Employment report said on Wednesday.  The positive data increased expectations that the labor market could be strong enough for the Fed to start taper.

Today we have the GDP data and tomorrow we have the NFP number. Bulls of financial market wants a bad a bad macro data coming from US so that Fed can keep going with$85 billion-a-month bond-buying program.

All eyes are on this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 17-18 December where the US central bank may consider reducing its bond-buying program. Expectations that the Fed might start to taper its stimulus program have been a concern for the world since May. Earlier this year, terror over the unwinding of the Fed’s bond-buying program hit emerging markets hard, especially India and Indonesia, which have large account deficits. Indian stocks plummeted 13 percent from May to late August on taper concerns.

How will India Market react to Fed taper

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Nifty Options premium touching roof, How to trade NF

• FIIs bought 4451 contracts of Index Future  worth 134 cores (11318 Longs were added and 6867 shorts were added ) with net Open Interest increasing by 18185 contracts, so FII's added both long and short in Index futures suggesting volatile move ahead in next 2 days.
  

Nifty after forming double bottom at 5972 rallied till 6228 and closed above 6200 for second day. Nifty is still trading in the range of 6000-6220. Close above it and sustain for 2 days will signify a

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How State Elections results will influence Stock Market

The results of elections in five states -- Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan -- will be declared 8 December.Results could well influence which party comes to power in the national elections that are due by the end of May.
Many investors are hoping the state elections will show strong support for the Bharatiya Janata Party whose prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is considered a pro-business leader. In the Run up to election results ,infra and capital goods indices as well as select stocks have rallied sharply, partly on expectations of a BJP/NDA will win atleast 3 out of 5 states and  victory next year. Since the announcement of Modi as the BJP prime ministerial candidate,

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All you want to know about India VIX

India VIX is a volatility index based on the index option prices of NIFTY. India VIX is computed using the best bid and ask quotes of the out-of-the-money near and mid-month NIFTY option contracts which are traded on the F&O segment of NSE. India VIX indicates the investor’s perception of the market’s

volatility in the near term. The index depicts the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. i.e. higher the India VIX values, higher the expected volatility and vice -versa.

India VIX computation methodology

India VIX uses the computation methodology of CBOE,with suitable amendments to adapt to the NIFTY options order book using cubic splines, etc

The factors considered in the computation of India VIX are mentioned below:

1)Time to expiry:..

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VIX shoots up 10%, How to trade NF

• FIIs bought 16783 contracts of Index Future  worth 520 cores (18043 Longs were added and 1260 shorts were added ) with net Open Interest decreasing by 19303 contracts, so FII's added both long and short in Index futures.
  

Nifty after forming double bottom at 5972 rallied till 6228 and closed above 6200 today. Nifty is still trading in the range of 6000-6220. Close above it and sustain for 2 days will signify a..

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Bank Nifty Weekly analysis for 2-6 December

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts are showing negative divergence in leading indicators unable to cross 11232 and breaking 11040 negative divergence will come in effect.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty on daily chart will face resistance at its..

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Nifty Weekly analysis for 2-6 December

Last Week we gave Weekly Chopad level of 6000 Nifty did the almost three target on upside.Next week will be very volatile hence traders are advised to trade with caution. Nifty monthly closing have lost the momentum as were unable to close above 6200  and Weekly charts are already in downturn and this being an pre election result week volatility will be name of the game. So trade with extreme caution in coming week

Nifty Hourly Chart

 

Nifty Hourly charts are showing negative divergence in leading indicators unable to cross 6207 and breaking 6160 negative divergence will come in effect.

Nifty Daily Chart Time Analysis..

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