Are Indian stocks in bubble territory?

Whenever something reaches lifetime highs, questions are asked whether the asset class in question is in bubble territory. Indian equities would certainly qualify to be at the receiving end of such a scrutiny. Both Nifty and the Sensex are being seen flirting with their all time highs with consistent regularity these days. The latest such episode occurred yesterday as the Sensex crossed the psychologically crucial mark of 22k. Given the momentum though, we won't be surprised if more gains are in the offing.
This thus begs the question of whether the Indian equities are anywhere close to being in bubble territory. Well, as the bubble specialist Jeremy Grantham would acknowledge, this question can be answered in two ways. One is of course statistically and the other is to look at certain behavioural tendencies amongst market participants.
Let's deal with statistics first.


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How to trade Bank Nifty before and after RBI Policy

The Reserve Bank of India's First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2014-15 on Tuesday, 1 April 2014, will dictate near term trend of Bank Nifty. Lets analyze how to trade bank nifty in RBI week.Bank nifty has been up by 18.5% in March series or 1990 points.

 Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts after crossing its 50 HSMA has been trading in perfect up trending channel .Chanel top comes in range of

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USD INR breaches 60,Weekly Technical Analysis

Rupee  breached the psychological mark of 60 per dollar,Rupee has rebounded 15%. In the January-March quarter alone, the rupee has gained 3.6%, making it the second best performer in the region. Lets analyze rupee move in coming week as we have crucial RBI policy.

USD INR Hourly

INR is trading at the lower end of channel in 4 hourly chart, signalling a


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Top 5% Trader

The largest academic study ever conducted on day trading shows that most traders lose money  even during a bull market. Only 5% of active traders were able to earn significant profits two years in a row.
Are 95% of traders dumb? Hardly. As a trading coach , I believe  traders are among the intelligent and motivated individuals.
Even so, most traders get fooled by

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IDFC,Bajaj Auto and Hindalco stock analysis

IDFC

Positional traders should look for a close above 123 for short term target of 131, Unable to do so stock is heading back to 110.
Intraday Traders can use the below levels

Buy above 123 Tgt

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Nifty Outlook for April Series

• Nifty made a new life high again today 6674 ,and closed just above the rising trendline as shown in below chart. As discussed yesterday Range of 6650-6663 , Nifty made a high of 6674 and closed below this range. Now many traders are looking for short term top of market so following points should be satisfied by Nifty to confirm short term top.

Higher High

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Qualities Every Trader must have

1) Strategy – There are so many different strategies: value, growth, momentum, short selling, etc. Find one that fits your personality and do your best to master it. The fastest way to learn is to study success. In other words, find someone who is successful at the strategy you like, and then mimic them with your own style. Another key is to recognize when the market environment is not conducive to your strategy, and make the proper adjustments.
2) Confidence – If you don’t have confidence, you have very little chance of succeeding. This doesn’t just apply to trading, it applies to EVERYTHING in life (business, athletics, relationships, etc.). With regards to trading, you have to believe in what you are doing and not be afraid to make mistakes. The key is to learn from them, make adjustments, and constantly reevaluate your progress.
3) Product Focus – There are so many different trading vehicles: futures, commodities, currencies, stocks, options, etc. It’s ok to dabble in a few things at first, but eventually

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FII F&O Analysis for March Derivative Expiry

• FIIs bought 26292 contracts of Index Future worth 884 cores (339 Long contracts were  added and 25.9 K short contract  were squared off ) with net Open Interest decreasing by 25.6 K contracts, so FII's were in square off mode in shorts.
  

Nifty made a new life high again today 6627,and closing just above the rising trendline as shown in below chart. Small dips coming in market is getting bought into

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FII Data Analysis for 25 March

• FIIs bought 31921 contracts of Index Future worth 1056 cores (54.5 K Long contracts were  added and 22.3 K short contract  were added) with net Open Interest increasing by 76.9 contracts, so FII's  added both longs and shorts in Index Futures.
  

Nifty made a new life high again today

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Adani,ZEE and Larsen technical analysis

Adani

Positional traders should look for close above 330 for short term target of 343.

Buy above 328 Tgt

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Nifty Weekly Forecast for March Expiry

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has closed below its 50 HDMA, which is bearish in short term.Any close above 6510 will bring back bullishness in market.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty after breaking out of 6410 range last week, consolidated its gains in last week. Now range of 6357-6410 becomes an important support of market. Nifty has formed multiple resistance in range of

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Bank Nifty Weekly Forecast for March Expiry

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts is trading below  its 50 HSMA ,Closing above 12120 bounceback can be seen till 12300-12500.

Bank Nifty Daily

Bank Nifty on daily chart is near its resistance area.Breakout comes above 12300 for target of 12550 and 12700.Unable to do so we can see pullback till

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Will The Hope Rally Fade Away?

For just about 2 months the Indian bourses have shrugged off all the things that are worrying the rest of the world. Institutional money is coming in, and today the Government raised about USD 1 Bn through the sale of a 9 per cent stake in Axis Bank. The currency has strengthened somewhat, inflation is down and so are commodities including Oil. All of these factors put together have brought about a surge in Equities and brought a general cheer to the investing class. To this intoxicating brew have been added the concoction called NDA-widely tipped to come first at the hustings in May 2014.

Here is where the trouble starts. Polls apart there are evident signs that the NDA is as much a force of convenience as are the other political alliances in the country. There is the unique spectre of a 86 year old politician being cajoled by party men atleast twice in the past 3-4 months, The first occasion was

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Secret of Successful Traders :Be Imperfect

As a trader  you will not be right all of the time. If you can accept your imperfection, and work within it, you will be much more successful:
If you have a perfectionist mentality when trading, you are setting yourself up for failure, because it is a “given” that you will experience losses along the way.
You must begin to think of trading as a game of probability. Your losses ( that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you. If you cannot take a loss when it is small ( because of the need to be perfect), then you will watch that small loss grow into a larger loss and so on into a vicious cycle of more and more pain for the perfectionist. Trading on hope does not work. The markets can remain irrational for a lot longer

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Stress Relieving exercise for traders

Stress kills, and trading is among the most stressful of any profession. Stress-related illness accounts for between 75-90%.
Take any disease known to man, and you will find:It's caused by stress It's made worse by stress If you get it, you will have stress
In this faster and faster forward world where traders are bombarded with date, information, opinion and price movement, we must find a way to turn down the stress By setting aside 20 minutes once or twice a day we see enormous benefits to the body.
These include: clearer thinking, lowered blood pressure, increased oxygen consumption by the body and brain, less fatigue and increased well-being.
Perhaps the simplest way to get into a state of de-stress and tame anxiety is

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Should retail traders trade in VIX futures

Many traders have asked me " Shall we trade in VIX Futures with elections round the corner ? "
Today retail investors can trade in existing derivative products with small amounts ranging between Rs 25,000 and Rs 1 lakh. In comparison, in VIX futures the margin requirement is too high.The minimum contract value of Rs 10 lakh,it does not sound encouraging for retail investors. "Please do remember It is not an investment tool. It is a hedging tool"
The India VIX gives a sense of how much of a swing trader expect in the market over the next 30 days. It does this by taking the prices of the near and middle month out of money options contracts and uses the Chicago Board Options Exchange methodology to arrive at the volatility.VIX, which has a negative co-relation to Nifty. So, it covers the risk of Nifty stocks. Whatever stock the investor buys, he can buy a

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How To Trade With Confidence

During my interaction in trading session, Many traders complained they feel exhausted,loss of energy during trading hours,and when opportunity comes are unable to capitalize over a rewarding  trade. Today we will discuss above how to maintain high level of energy during trading hours.
Top traders are able to maintain high energy throughout the whole trading session, so that they are alert every second and can take advantage of trading opportunities as they present themselves.


How do they do it?

How can they maintain a high level


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Why Do Traders Lose Money Part -I?

As per data analysis, trading with  no strategy or trading edge has a 50% chance of success  over a long series of trades. Markets at all time highs its time to ask yourself did you make money in this move, If yes you are the few disciplined one who have made money if you have lost than its time to introspect and learn from your mistakes and prepare yourself as a stronger trader.
The main reason most traders lose money is because the majority of people have little self-control and cannot resist the temptation to over-trade and over-leverage when there is no one to be accountable to.
Another main reason most traders lose money is because they try to buck the trend for some reason, even though they KNOW they have a statistically higher chance of winning by sticking with the trend until it is clearly finished.
Lets discuss the above points

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Rel Cap, Sun Pharma and DLF trading plan

Reliance Capital

Buy above 310 Tgt...

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Nifty forms hanging man, How to trade on 6 March

• FIIs bought 20503  contracts of Index Future worth 328 cores (22.7 K Long contracts were  added and 2.2 K short contract  were added ) with net Open Interest increasing by 25 K contracts, so FII's added huge longs in index future and  marginal shorts were added.
  

• Nifty finally closed above the trendline resistance, but with a formation of bearish  hanging man candlestick. So low of 6287 will be very important to watch for next 2 days. Holding 6287 we can move towards all time high, Unable to do so we can correct back to 6200 odd levels. 3 Conditions should be satisfied for pattern to confirm.

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SBI,AlBK and GAIL intraday trading plan

SBI

 

 

Buy above 1555 Tgt 1565,1580 and 1597 SL 1550

Sell below 1540 Tgt 

 

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Bulls gets Putin Booster, FII F&O Data Analysis

• FIIs bought 22080  contracts of Index Future worth 705 cores (24915 Long contracts were  added and 2835 short contract  were added ) with net Open Interest increasing by 27750 contracts, so FII's added huge longs in index future and  marginal shorts were added.
  

Nifty after yesterday rise is near its trendline resistance, 6300-6320 range has seen

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ONGC,ICICI Bank and Sun Pharma Trading plan

ICICI Bank

1045 holds the key for stock in short term for more upside, Closing above it stock is heading towards 1076, Unable to do so and closing below 1042 short term target is 1021

Buy above 1045 Tgt

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Nifty Weekly Forecast for March Series

Last Week Chopad Level of 6160 did  triggered and Nifty did its 2 target on upside, Lets analyze how to trade nifty in coming week.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has closed above its 200 HDMA, which is bullish in short term.Holding

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Bank Nifty Weekly Forecast for March Series

Last Weekly we gave Chopad level Bank Nifty 10626 and achieved 2 target  upside.

 Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts is trading above  its 200HSMA ,Closing above

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Understanding Put Call Ratio

As the name suggests, it is the ratio of all the Puts/Calls traded every day. If the ratio is more than 1, it means that more puts have traded during the day and if it is less than 1 it means more calls traded during the day.
To trade based on PCR; you will first need to collect historic PCR to know the extreme ends it can reach. NSE shares this information on this link daily. Assume that this average range for PCR over the last 1 year is in between 0.7 and 1.3.
PCR is also a contrarian strategy which believes that option buyers will typically lose money. So a typical way to analyse PCR would be:
a.     If PCR is below

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