Nifty July Expiry Analysis

• FII's bought 16225 contract of Index Future worth 638 cores, 33.3  K Long contract were added  and 16.9 K short contracts were added by FII's. Net Open Interest increased   by 50.2 K contract.FII's have net 89 K contract of Shorts open and 85.8 K Contract of Long open in current series. If we removed last 3  days of shorts added by FII, we are left with 48K contract which were majorly added 01 July to 10 July when Nifty traded in range of 7677-7809, so 7677 below these shorts will become  profitable so FII's will try to push index below 7677 to exit the trades in profit, unable to do so we can expire above 7800 so next 2 days we can see a 150+ move in market.

Nifty made low of 7707 before bouncing back furiously and close near 7791, Bounce was on back of low volumes and will not be surprised nifty retracing the whole up move tomorrow. 34 HEMA @ 7773

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Trading Comparison: Amateur Traders Vs Professional Traders

“A trader is the weakest link of any trading system" (Alexander Elder)
After 4 years of winning and losing hundreds of trades and blowing out several accounts both demo and live, trying different systems, experimenting with many strategies, I am still unable to achieve my trading goals and become a consistent profitable trader. I wonder why I am taking two-step forward one step backward and one step forward two-step backward and pretty much in league of majority of traders who are struggling to make consistent profit day in day out.
I decided to dig deep to find out reasons for my failure, as such I started reading several books and interviews of successful professional traders, soon I realized that my failure lies in my trading approach. I am still thinking & reacting on emotion, fear & greed like majority of amateur traders and that I need to change the way I think and get rid of this herd mentality, otherwise I won’t be able to become profitable trader, no matter how hard I try.
"If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd" (Sir John Templeton)
Professional traders think different from rest of the crowd majority of the time and that is why they are consistently profitable over longer period. Lot of
these traders have started with small capital and made big fortunes by trading consistently year after year. Although their trading style and system is different from each other, some are technical traders, some are fundamental traders and some mixture of both.

Patience & Discipline

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Trading vs Gambling – Is there a Difference?

Put a  trader in a group of non-traders and the conversation will inevitably turn to gambling.   At a recent family gathering I was asked about my share trading by an interested (or polite) family member, to which I responded with my usual cheery, ‘Good thanks!”
I had just mentioned that we were planning on selling our house and using the money to trade with, when a bystander with good hearing said rather loudly ‘Put it on Black!
These situations come up rather a lot, in fact some of my closest friends have expressed their thought that in the stock market it’s all luck and pretty much a 50/50 bet.  And for them, it probably would be.  Meanwhile I quietly bit my knuckle (hard) to stop myself from climbing a-top my soap box.  Because it was a dinner party, after all.
It seems the general population (in particular men in their forties on grand final day) don’t seem to consider a few quite important points, including but not limited to the fact that -

1. It is highly offensive to be considered a gambler, particularly when you’ve just said your selling your house for funds.
2. As traders we might have a slightly better idea of how the markets work than they do.
3. A ‘girl’ in her extremely early thirties could have any knowledge at all of things they themselves don’t understand.

So, what is the difference between Trading and Gambling?

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Nifty Weekly Analysis for July Expiry Week

Last Week we gave Chopad level of 7685, Nifty did  2 target on upside rewarding trend follower with 150 points. Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in Expiry week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly charts shows have been trading in a channel, now currently trading at the channel bottom which is around

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Trading Lesson Learnt From my Trading Guru

The day I started trading I hoped to make lot of money, and ultimate goal of every trader is to trade for a living. My Guru asked me how you are going to make "a lot of money", I said some blah blah but Honestly speaking I did not had any concrete answer.  Somewhere in the back of my mind I secretly hoped I will catch the one big move that will make me enough money to trade like Big boys. Unfortunately the odds of catching the "big one" are probably the same as those for winning the lottery.
I hope many traders who are trading or willing to start trading will be facing with the same dilemma and confusion so today am sharing few fundas i got from my trading guru. Use them and see the change in your trading.

Have a realistic trading goal

First and foremost thing my Guru told me  "I should have a trading goal". The goal did not have to be a large one like being a millionaire in 1 year, Trading goal should be simple and realistic. Having a trading goal would help me focus better on the markets. I would come to see better opportunities (note this is not the same as “more opportunities”) as well as managing my money better. Since I did not have a very large trading account at that point of time ,My Guru suggested to start with a goal of netting 2500 per week out of the markets. So If I could do this consistently for four weeks, I should be able to net Rs1000 a month which is almost 10% return on capital.
I told my Guru "Sir its not possible for me to live of  Rs 10000 a month !". He laughed at my innocence and told " Bramesh "  If you could consistently net 2500 a week, using single contracts,

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Nifty Weekly Outlook as per Fibo and Elliot wave

Last Week we gave Chopad level of 7441, Nifty did all 3 target on upside rewarding trend follower with 200 points. Using the Golden Ratio we were able to predict the Top of Nifty around 7800 Can Nifty form short term top around 7800 ?  Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in next week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly charts shows strong support in range of 7600-7610. Holding the same we can see a bounceback till 7800 odd levels.

Nifty Elliot Wave Analysis

As per Elliot wave Theory B wave on hourly charts can get over near 


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Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook as per Fibo and Elliot wave

Last Week we gave Chopad Level of 14396 Bank Nifty did all the 3 target on upside rewarding Trend Follower by 500 points.. Lets analyze how to trade Bank Nifty in coming week.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts touched the gap area and started bouncing back towards the higher end. Negative divergence are visible in hourly charts and downward falling trendline resistance comes around 15556.

Bank Nifty Hourly Elliot Wave

Bank Nifty hourly EW is showing an abc

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FII FnO Data Analysis for 18 July

• FII's bought  13636 contract of Index Future worth 520 cores, 6.5 K Long contract were added  and 7 K short contracts were squared off by FII's. Net Open Interest came down by 530 contract.

NIfty closed above the supply zone of 7570-7585 and this zone will become support of the Nifty, Nifty was unable to cross the Golden Ratio @ 7661, made high of 7656. Close above 7661 open upside till 7700/7731. Also Gann fan also...

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Bull Run in Bank Nifty over? Weekly Analysis

Bank Nifty corrected the most in past 15 months, so is the bull run over in Bank Nifty or its just one of the healthy correction . Lets analyze how to trade Bank Nifty in coming week.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty hourly charts has started trading below the low of 16 may and is bound to go down further till

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Nifty gets into correction mode, Weekly Analysis

Last Week we gave Chopad level of 7766, Nifty did all 4 target on downside rewarding trend follower with 300 points. Using the Golden Ratio we were able to predict the Top of Nifty around 7800 Can Nifty form short term top around 7800 ?  Nifty saw a decline of 3.8% last week panicking traders and investor and many of them talking bull run is over , So  Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in next week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

 

 

Hourly charts shows strong support in range of ...


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How Winning Traders Rebound, make a Come Back, and Never Quit

I firmly believe that what truly separates the 5% of winning traders from the 90% that lose and 5% which are at breakeven is the "Trader’s Mindset". The vast majority of traders think they want to trade until the losses hit them over and over and they just can’t mentally and emotionally handle it and end up quitting entirely.
I believe the following ten principles separate the quitters from the winners in the stock market.

• They accept losing trades quickly but it does not define them, they learn and try again. The next trade will be more wise than the last one.

• They compartmentalize emotions by not blaming themselves but understanding the historical expectancy of their systems returns.

• They have a bias toward action by constantly doing things that move them closer to their goal of being a rich trader. (Homework, chart study, reading, being mentored, back testing, etc. )

• They change their minds sometimes, they know when to stop doing something that does not work and move in the direction of trading success through new lessons. They learn what type of trading is right for them.

They prepare for things to go wrong through risk management

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Milestones You Must Pass to Become a Trader

Most people jump into the stock market expecting instant, grandiose results that are not realistic. Sorry to burst your bubble, but trading success is a marathon, not a sprint! For a lot of people that is hard to hear. They don't want to train, they don't want to get out of their comfort zone, they don't want to change their lifestyle in order to achieve success. They want money to be handed to them on a silver platter.

We are here to tell you the truth: There are no shortcuts. Successful trading is hard work, and any other line of thinking is a one-way ticket to failure.

Trading is a journey, and you need to treat it as such. Back to the marathon analogy for a moment. When you are training for an endurance race, you don't immediately go out the first day and run 26.2 miles, or even 10 miles. The first thing you do is build a realistic step-by-step program to build up your endurance based on your starting point. If you try to run too far, or too fast, you could injure yourself or damage your psyche.

Trading is the exact same way.

Goal-setting is extremely important in life, and 

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How to trade Nifty on Union Budget 2014

• FII's sold 17.4 K contract of Index Future worth 662 cores, 11.5 K Long contract were squared off and 5.8 K short contracts were added  by FII's. Net Open Interest came down by 5.7 K contract suggesting FII are again going short at higher level.

Nifty continued with its correction and took support at 7551 as we discussed yesterday as per abc pattern , Now Nifty has corrected 258 points from highs,Today we have discussed 2 Elliot Wave target Bullish and bearish, Bullish target comes @ 7843 and bearish one @ 7394 as discussed in below chart.Nifty will be highly volatile today and big move can be expected as per time analysis between

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Nifty Option Trading Strategy for Union Budget 2014

With the Indian Union Budget to be presented on 10 July , and as discussed in previous post Nifty remains in a wide range so there is  an opportunity to trade in Nifty Options  And the opportunity could turn out to be quite promising.
Which will be market direction post budget we do not know so its  best we take a position that is completely independent of the direction of the market and possibly make money out of it.
Though we dont have an idea of the direction, historically, the maximum change in Nifty from the budget date to the next expiry date is quite decent in either direction. So, we can fairly assume that the move post budget is going to be big as it always is. So lets discuss the Option Strategy

Long Straddle strategy

A long straddle strategy is when you buy a Put Option and a Call Option of the same expiry and at the same strike. As most of retail investor will prefer trading the Option Route to trade ( They should not trade but still they cannot resist the temptation of not trading ;) ).Yeah, offcourse, there could be a loss. There is nothing called '100% probability of profit' in stock market. But, definitely we can identify strategies with bear minimum losses and with a good potential

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Nifty corrects from 7800, How to trade now ?

FII's sold 14.1 K contract of Index Future worth 550 cores, 6.1 K Long contract were squared off and 7.9 K short contracts were added  by FII's. Net Open Interest came up by 1.8K contract suggesting FII are again going short at higher level.

Nifty made a fresh life high today@7809 almost near to out target of 7800  Can Nifty form short term top around 7800 ?  , and tanked almost 200 points making low of 7596. The current downfall can see 2 target one we can..

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FII FnO Data Analysis before Rail Budget

• FII's sold 21.8 K contract of Index Future worth 850 cores, 9.9 K Long contract were squared off and 11.8 K short contracts were added  by FII's. Net Open Interest came up by 1.8K contract suggesting FII are again going short at higher level.

• Nifty made a fresh life high today@7792 almost near to out target of 7800  Can Nifty form short term top around 7800 ?  , Bank Nifty was down today but still Nifty closed at days high. This needs to be looked with caution. Nifty has open with gap up on last 6 trading sessions, showing over optimism of market participants.

As seen in below chart Bear Power Indicator has started rising and any break of trendline which coincide with 7800-7820 range  bear will be  back in market.

• Nifty Future July Open Interest Volume is at 1.43 cores with addition of of 0.83 lakhs in Open Interest,  suggesting long addition. An important point to not is 1 core of Index Futures got rollovered in range of 7616-7500 and Nifty is trading well above this zone, this price zone implies a very significant price band if we see a dip in Nifty.

• Total Future & Option trading volume at 1.06  lakh core with total contract traded at 1.5 lakh. PCR @0.67. PCR has decreased from 0.82  to 0.67. Slightly surprising because with a rise, generally PCR has to increase. Higher number of Calls were written today.

• 8000 CE  OI at 78.7 lakh saw addition of 2.6 lakh so speculative buying started in 8000 CE keeping pre budget rally in mind, 7800  CE saw liquidation of 4.4 lakh suggesting highs will not be sustained . FII's bought 3.6 K CE longs and 15.6 K  CE were shorted by them. FII's have been consistently writing calls suggesting higher levels if they come will not be sustained.

• 7500 PE OI at 46.3  lakh saw addition of 0.77  lakh so support of 7500 looks strong, 7600 PE also added 2.1 lakhs  suggesting support is rising up, 7300 PE added 3.6 lakh suggesting informed buying happening at this strike. FII's bought 1.5  K PE longs and 10 K  PE were shorted by them.

• FIIs bought 198 cores in Equity and DII sold 85 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 60.1.

• Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 7792 (For Intraday Traders). NF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 7673 and BNF Trend Changer Level (Positional Traders) 15424 .How to trade Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures as per Trend Changer Level . 
  

Buy above 7802 Tgt 7820,7837  and 7860 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell below 7775 Tgt 7750, 7727 and 7700 (Nifty Spot Levels)

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Trader’s journey from Amateur to Professional

• Amateur  Trader accumulate information,  learn- buying books, asking questions, maybe going to seminars and researching what really works in trading.

• Amateur Trader begin to trade with our ‘new’  found knowledge.

• Amateur Trader make profits only to give it back very quickly and then realize may need more knowledge or information.

• Amateur Trader accumulate more information.

• Amateur Trader go back into the market and trade with our better system. this time it will work.

Amateur Trader lose even more money and begin to lose of confidence.The

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How to trade Nifty in Union Budget Week

Last Week we gave Chopad level of 7515, Nifty did all 3 target on upside. Next Week is full of event, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present the final Union Budget for 2014-15 in Lok Sabha at 11:00 IST on Thursday and  First quarter corporate earnings season begins next week. Private sector bank IndusInd Bank will unveil Q1 results on Wednesday, 9 July 2014. IT major Infosys is scheduled to announced Q1 results on Friday, 11 July 2014.   I have discussed Nifty performance on Union Budget day here Nifty’s Movement on Union Budget day  .Lets analyze how to trade Nifty in next week.

 Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly charts after breaking out of trendline are just moving in gaps and rallying, All 5 days of last week nifty opened with gap up and rallied.  Hourly trendline resistance comes...

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Can Nifty form short term top around 7800 ?

Nifty has been rising from steadily from Low of 5933 on 04-Feb-2014 till high of 7758, A rally of almost 1825 points in 94 trading session which is a huge move. Market in short term is rising based on Budget expectation which will be presented on 10 July.  I have discussed Nifty performance on Union Budget day here Nifty’s Movement on Union Budget day 

Now Lets analyze how Nifty can perform in coming few session and where It can potentially make a short term top. Do remember Healthy correction are required in bull market,for  further rise, straight line rise will never be good in long term.
Nifty started its rise from pre election rise on 8 May from 6638 which got topped out on 7564 on 16 May as discussed in below chart.The rise was of 925 points and took 7 trading session to complete.


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FII FnO Data Analysis for 04 July

• FII's sold 6.9 K contract of Index Future worth 266 cores, 5 K Long contract were squared off and 1.8 K short contracts were added  by FII's. Net Open Intrest came down by 3231 contract suggesting FII are again going short at higher level but in small quantity.

Nifty made a fresh life high today@7754 , almost near to the EW target of 7761  as seen in below chart.  Any break below 7677 can lead to a swift fall till 7634 odd levels. Volumes are not ..

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FII FnO Data Analysis for 02 July

• FII's sold 1229 contract of Index Future worth 47 cores, 5.1 K Long contract were squared off and 3.9 K short contracts were squared off  by FII's.So FII's used the rally today to exit long positions and short positions also.

• Nifty after big move yesterday, consolidated its gain and closed well above 7600 levels. As per Elliot wave nifty might have completed the b wave of abc pattern today or tommrow opening can do and we can

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How to trade Maruti,Bharat Forge and Century Textile

Maruti

Any close above 2585 stock is heading towards 2639/2673.

Buy above 2586 Tgt

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