Nifty Weekly Analysis for Week starting 30 April

The April Series has been listless series which can be best summarized as the series of consolidation after a Topsy turfy ride in volatile march series. Consolidation is an integral part of market which is very much required before next big move. May Series promises to be a month of big moves. Lets jump into technicals on what in for Nifty for month of May.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Hourly chart are trading below the 50 HSMA which means bears are strong upper hand till Nifty is trading below 5226. Bollinger Band pattern forms bands are getting contracted means volatile and directional move are in offing for Nifty.

Nifty Daily Chart

On Daily chart formation falling wedge pattern is still valid till ...

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FII FnO Analysis for 27 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 26-Apr-12.

1. FII  sold 13099  Contracts of NF worth 348 cores OI decreased by 188754.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 12 points and OI has increased  by 188754 , ie.Fall in Price with Fall in Open Interest,long liquidation  by FII.
3. Today we have weekly closing, close below 5189 will turn weekly time frame down. On Monday we have Monthly closing watch out for 5217 any close below this will be bearish f0r 2012. April Series has done nothing From March to April expiry Nifty just moved 11 points :)
4. Range for Nifty Futures for May series as per Rollover data comes to...

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FII FnO Analysis for April Expiry

1. FII  sold 13686  Contracts of NF worth 314 cores OI also increased by 77488.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 26 points and OI has increased  by 77488 , ieFall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.
Today we saw an huge increase in OI and with S&P coming with a negative outlook on Indian Sovereign and Downgrading the 3 IT top boys Infy,TCS and Wipro and also downgraded  11 financial institutions:
Axis Bank Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) HDFC Bank Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) ICICI Bank Ltd. (foreign currency: BBB-/Negative/A-3) IDBI Bank Ltd. (foreign currency: BBB-/Negative/A-3) Indian Overseas Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Indian Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) State Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Syndicate Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Union Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) The outlook revision follows a similar action on the sovereign credit rating on India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) (see "Outlook On India Revised To Negative On Slow Fiscal Progress, Deteriorating Economic Indicators; 'BBB-' Rating Affirmed," published April 25, 2012, on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit
so the above has provided trigger to FII to enter in Huge Shorts in Index Futures.
3. From the start of April Series i was of View this series will just be an consolidation series after volatile march and Range we came to was 5221-5380 NF. Most part of series Nifty  has traded in the above mentioned range. 29 March Nifty..

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FII FnO Analysis for 23 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 20-Apr-12.

1. FII  sold 5957  Contracts of NF worth 102.69 cores OI also increased  marginally by 3397.
2. As Nifty Futures made a dramatic low of 5000 with a fall of  300 points in 2.5 minutes by the Algo trading hitch by CLSA and recovery equally faster, by closing was down  by 54 points and OI has increased  by 3397, ie.Fall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5262 first sign of strength but unable to close above 50 SMA@5337 . Above 50 SMA Bulls rule and trend becomes stronger. On Friday we made 3 attempt to close above 50 SMA but unable to cross and close above it. Till Nifty is closing above 20 SMA dips near 5262 should be bought into.
4. Its been 14 trading session in April Series and Trading range of..

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Technical Analysis:LT,IRB and DCB

Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk about what really underlies that type of discipline. The answer……true self-confidence.

Larsen Tubro

Larsen and Tubro is forming a symmetrical triangle which is a precursor of a decisive move coming in LT.

Buy above 1294 Tgt 1314,1330 and 1351

Sell below 1272 Tgt...

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Nifty Weekly Analysis for Week starting 23 April

“The ability to accept the many ups and downs of the market is one of the most important skills a trader can have.”
This is an Apt one liner on what happened on Friday at 2:30 PM.  "Flash Crash" happened in NF

• The Nifty futures crashed over 300 points in afternoon trade, Nifty April futures plunged to a low of 5,000. A total of 51.49 lakh shares were traded between 2.25 pm-2.35 pm.
• Infosys April futures hit a low of Rs 1,950 at 10.45 am. 67250 Infosys got traded in which it made a low of 1950
• NSE Officials have denied that it was a fat finger effect or trading mistake by dealer.
• So it seems its another case of manipulation by Big Boys to cover up there shorts probably formed before the RBI policy
• Looser in the game were again the retail investor whose Stop losses and Short  Trades got executed at lower levels and they need to pay heavy price.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has formed double top at 5342 also 3 trend lines drawn are converging at a single point which signify good move is offing. Nifty has closed above its 50 Hourly SMA@5265

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Why Training is Required to do trading?

How much training you need depends on the job you want. If you want to be a janitor, an hour of training might do. Just learn to attach a mop to the right end of the broomstick and find a pail without holes.If, on the other hand, you want to fly an airplane or do surgery, you’ll have to learn a great deal more. Trading is closer to flying a plane than to mopping a floor, meaning you’ll need to invest a lot of time and energy in mastering this craft. Society mandates extensive training for pilots and doctors because their errors are so deadly. As a trader, you are free to be financially deadly to yourself—society does not care, because your loss is someone
else’s gain. Flying and medicine have standards and yardsticks, as well as professional bodies to enforce them. In trading, you have to set up your own rules and be your own enforcer. Pilots and doctors learn from instructors who impose discipline on them through tests and evaluations. Private traders have no external system for learning, testing, or discipline. Our job is hard because we must learn on our own, develop discipline, and test ourselves again and again in the markets.
When we look at training for pilots and doctors, three features stand out. They are the gradual assumption of responsibility, constant evaluations, and training until actions become automatic. Let us see whether we can apply them to trading.
1. The Gradual Assumption of Responsibility
A flying school doesn’t put a beginner into a pilot’s seat on his first day. A medical student is lucky if he is allowed to take a patient’s temperature on his first day in the hospital. His superiors double-check him before ...

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FII FnO Analysis for 20 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19-Apr-12.

1. FII  bought 26250  Contracts of NF worth 653.11 cores OI also increased  by 23040.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 33 points and OI has increased  by 23040, ie.Rise in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh longs were added by FII.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5265 first sign of strength but unable to close above 50 SMA@5338. Above 50 SMA Bulls rule and trend becomes stronger. Today we did moved above 50 SMA and made a high of 5342 but unable to sustain above it. Till Nifty is closing above 20 SMA dips near 5265 should be bought into.
4.Trading range is still active 5380-5221. NF made a hig of 5361 and turned back so range is still active :)
5. Trendline which we have been discussing from past 1 week resistance comes at 5310.Today we closed above ...

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Technical Calls:BF utility,Reliance and Ambuja Cement

Ambuja Cement

Multiple support near 156 and cluster of resistance in range of 168-170 zone

Buy above 171 Tgt 174,176 and 178.8

Sell below 165.6 Tgt 163.8,160.3 and 158

Reliance

Symmetrical Triangle Formation i RIL before its Result. Trading above 20 SMA is bullish for the stock.

Buy above 757 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 19 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 19-Apr-12.

1. FII  bought 22667  Contracts of NF worth 589.47 cores OI also increased  by 20869.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 3 points and OI has increased  by 20869, ie.Rise in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh longs were added by FII.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5262 first sign of strength but unable to close above 50 SMA@5338. Above 50 SMA Bulls rule and trend becomes stronger. Today we did moved above 50 SMA and made a high of 5342 but unable to sustain above it. Till Nifty is closing above 20 SMA dips near 5262 should be bought into.
4.Trading range is still active 5380-5221. NF made a high..

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Technical Analysis:Ashok Leyland,Coal India,IRB and DCB

Traders come to the markets with great expectations, but few make profits and most wash out. A successful trader must hop over several high hurdles—and keep hopping. Being better than average is not good enough—you have to be head and shoulders above the crowd. You can win only if you have both knowledge and discipline.

Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland has taken support at its trendline and shown a bounce back with good increase in volume.

Buy above 29.6 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 18 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 17-Apr-12.

1. FII  bought 20582  Contracts of NF worth 503.41 cores OI also increased  by 17768.Surprise Rate cut of 50 BPS is a welcome booster for Bulls. Listless market which was lacking triggers got a boost of liquidity from RBI
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 71 points and OI has increased  by 17768, ie.Rise in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh longs were added by FII.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5260....

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Technical Analysis:Bank Nifty,HDFC bank and SBI before RBI meet

In any particular trade you never really know how far prices will travel from any given point. If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade. From a psychological perspective this characteristic will allow you to indulge yourself in the illusion that each trade has the potential of fulfilling your wildest dream of financial independence. Based on the consistency of market participants and their potential to act as a force great enough to move prices in your direction, the possibility of having your dreams fulfilled may not even remotely exist. However, if you believe it does, then you will have the tendency to gather only the kind of market information that will confirm and reinforce your belief, all the while denying vital information that may be telling you the best opportunity may be in the opposite direction.

Bank Nifty

RBI policy and Bank nifty will move like a wild elephant today.All depends on rate cut or no rate cut by RBI.25 BPS has been a general consensus and market has already factored. Any surprise will lead to a rally or continuation with downtrend.
Bank Nifty is showing strength as it has closed above both 20 and 50 SMA. Falling trendline @10447 is the crucial  resistance for today.

Buy above 10450 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 17 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 16-Apr-12.


1. FII  sold 12620  Contracts of NF worth 333.58 cores OI also decreased  by 400. FII going into RBI credit policy with lighten positions.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 27 points and OI has decreased  by 400,FII have liquidated there longs.Rise in Price with fall in Open Intrest
3. Nifty  closed below 20SMA@5262 and 50 SMA@5339  for today making it bearish in short term. Trend is favoring bears and Sell on rise should be mantra for the positional traders.With the smart recovery seen today from 5183 still trend is favoring bears as nifty is trading below important averages.

4.Trading range for NF is ..

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Technical Calls:Bharti Airtel,DCB and IDBI bank

Trading will stress your feelings. To survive and succeed, you will need to develop a sound trading psychology. Trading will challenge your mind. To gain an edge in the markets,you will need to master good analytic methods. Trading will demand good mathematical skills. A math illiterate who can’t manage risks is guaranteed to bust out.
A new trader is like a little lamb walking into a dark forest. He is likely to be killed, and his skin—his trading capital—divided three ways, between brokers, professional traders, and service providers. Each will try to grab a piece of that poor lamb’s skin. Don’t be that lamb—think of transaction costs. There are three kinds of them: commissions, slippage, and expenses.

Bharti Airtel

Bharti is having support near 319-320. Break of the range will take stock to its lower support between 308-303

Sell below 319 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 16 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 16-Apr-12.
1. FII  bought  7972  Contracts of NF worth 214.50 cores OI also increased  by 1408. Monthly inflation data will be keenly watched

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 70 points and OI has increased  by 1408,FII have created fresh shorts  in Index futures.
3. Nifty  closed below 20SMA@5265 and 50 SMA@5339  for today making it bearish in short term. Trend is favoring bears and Sell on rise should be mantra for the positional traders.As mentioned in Facebook page 5335 being an upper end of range and NF made a high of 5330 and tanked so traders using rise to Sell would have been profitable.

4.Trading range for NF is ...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Starting 20 April

Next  week is an crucial week as , the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) will announce its annual monetary policy for the year 2012-2013. Looking at slowing economic growth and lack of capital investment general consensus is for a Rate Cut  after a straight 13 times rise between March 2010 and October 2011.
Current benchmark interest rates in the country stand at 8.5% currently.
We have Monthly Inflation data coming out on Monday which will be keenly watched by RBI. February Inflation was at 6.95% ,Anything lower than Jan inflation number of 6.54% will be welcomed by market as it increases the probability of rate cut on Tuesday.

So next market trigger will come from RBI, Will Nifty will be able to break its trading range from 5178-5320 Lets jump into the technical to find the answer

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly chart showed a breakdown on last 2 hours of trading on Friday,13(Ominous day). Nifty has broken below both 50HSMA@5265 and 200H SMA@5292 which shows the...

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Trading with MACD

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

(MACD) was originally constructed by Gerald Appel an analyst in New York. Originally designed for analysis of stock trends, it is now widely used in many markets.
MACD is constructed by making an average of the difference between two moving averages. The difference of the original two moving averages and the moving average of the difference can be plotted as two lines, one fast and one slow

How is it Use?

MACD measures the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). A positive MACD indicates that the 12-day EMA is trading above the 26-day EMA. A negative MACD indicates that the 12-day EMA is trading below the 26-day EMA. If MACD is positive and rising, then the gap between the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA is widening. This indicates that the rate-of-change of the faster moving average is higher than the rate-of-change for the slower moving average. Positive momentum is increasing, indicating a bullish...

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FII FnO Analysis for 13 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 12-Apr-12.


1. FII  bought  7276  Contracts of NF worth 192 cores OI also increased  by 16680. Infosys results are disaster in recent time and expect a deep cut in infy. China GDP grew at 8.1% against an expectation of 8.5%. Monthly inflation data will be keenly watched

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 40 points and OI has increased  by 16680,FII have created longs in Index futures.
3. Nifty  closed below 20SMA@5282 and 50 SMA@5339  for today making it bearish in short term. Trend is favoring bears and Sell on rise should be mantra for the positional traders.Yesterday 20 SMA@5390 and Nifty made a high of 5390. So keep a close watch on 5339 today.
4.Trading range for NF is 5380-5221....

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Technical Analysis:IGL,ICICI Bank,Jindal Saw and BGR Energy

In any particular trade you never really know how far prices will travel from any given point. If you never really know where the market may stop, it is very easy to believe there are no limits to how much you can make on any given trade. From a psychological perspective this characteristic will allow you to indulge yourself in the illusion that each trade has the potential of fulfilling your wildest dream of financial independence. Based on the consistency of market participants and their potential to act as a force great enough to move prices in your direction, the possibility of having your dreams fulfilled may not even remotely exist. However, if you believe it does, then you will have the tendency to gather only the kind of market information that will confirm and reinforce your belief, all the while denying vital information that may be telling you the best opportunity may be in the opposite direction.

IGL

IGL tanked 33% today due to new government regulation which came into effect. For the investor who are rushing in to buy the company refresh your memory for GTL Infra and GTL limited. Both these stocks lost 80% of market cap in matter of days. Well fundamentals of IGL are quiet strong but market has its own mind and never try to catch a falling knife. Let the dust gets settled lets some sanity come in and than commit your money.

As Per technical charts 190 is a good support for stock and stock bounced back from this level. Breaking 190 can see the stock tanking till 150-160 odd levels. Book value of IGL is Rs 125

Buy above 231 Tgt...

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FII FnO Analysis for 11 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 10-Apr-12.

1. FII  sold  26837  Contracts of NF worth 687 cores OI also increased  by 2201.
2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 13 points and OI has increased  by 2201,now as they were net sellers of  26837 contracts with  6 days in April series they have net sold 68532 contracts. So we are seeing shorts entering into the system. Nifty Reacted sharply from the upper end of series ie.5382 and looking at last 6 days of data it prudent to assume they have shorted the index at higher levels.
3. Nifty  closed below 20SMA@5296 and 50 SMA@5334  for today making it bearish in short term. Trend is favoring bears and Sell on rise should be mantra for the positional traders.
4.Trading range for NF is 5380-5221. It touched the upper end unable to sustain and bears pushed it to lower end Low today was 5245.So tomorrow we need to closely watch

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FII FnO Analysis for 10 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 09-Apr-12.

1. FII  sold  43232  Contracts of NF worth 1092 cores OI also decreased  by 2630.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 92 points and OI has decreased  by 2630 ,which basically means profit booking on shorts and also Long liquidation as they net sold 43232 Contracts.
3. Nifty  closed below 20SMA@5301 and 50 SMA@5333 for today making it bearish in short term. Trend is favoring bears.
4.Trading range for NF is 5380-5221. It touched the upper end unable to...

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FII FnO Analysis for 9 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 04-Apr-12.

1. FII  sold  6365  Contracts of NF worth 168 cores OI also decreased  by 12831 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 38 points and OI has decreased  by 12831 Contracts ,which basically means profit booking on shorts and also Long liquidation as they net sold 6365 Contracts.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5300 which is good for bulls but unable to close above 50 SMA@5330.
4. I have been talking about the range of 5221-5370 NF based on Rollover data,Nifty highest close for this series comes at 5383 on Tuesday which was backed by low volumes and...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Starting 09 April

Last Week Analysis  as we discussed the First Week of new financial year do end up on positive note and Nifty did follow the history to close with a minor gain of 0.5%.Next Week we have the Q4 results pouring into starting with Infosys on 13 April   with RBI Credit Policy  on 17 April as the most important trigger for next 2 weeks.
In Continuation with the trend I came out with one more Study  how Nifty trades in the April Month.Results were quiet fascinating and are summarized as below

Time Period:31-Apr-00 to 31-Apr-11

Max Gain :17.46% 31-Apr-2009

Max Loss :6.87%   30-Mar-2000

Average Gain :1.62%

So Out of 11 Years 6 year was negative rest 5 years  ended in positive.Another interesting aspect the From 2006-2010 Nifty  ended April on Positive note and from year 2000-2004 ended on negative note. As 2011 was negative so we have 50-50% chances of April ending on Positive note. 5178 Nifty Spot holds the key for April

Nifty Hourly

On Hourly charts Nifty...

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Why I will not be a buyer in Options during earning seasons

Whenever I see people buy lottery tickets in anticipation of making quick bucks or realizing there dream of becoming millionaire on the back of my mind I get the image of an Option traders who buys in anticipation of making his trading capital increase by several folds.. While a few bucks lottery  ticket doesn't seem to be a lot of money to spend to win millions, the odds of you winning are slim to none due to the millions of different combinations of all the total possible numbers. We will be starting with earning season soon and many high flying names such as Infosys, Reliance,SBI  just to name a few, traders may be tempted to make their next option trade similar to buying a lotto ticket with the hopes of winning big.To add to fact every month there are traders who buy Calls and Puts thinking about a black swan event to occur and turning there few thousands into millions again odds of you winning are slim or next to NIL.
In my opinion, an options lotto ticket is where an individual makes an out of the money call or put purchase based on an event that can drive up shares of the underlining stock higher or lower. These events usually include earnings, conference calls and media related events. The lottery part of the equation usually stems from a trader making a directional bet, with the anticipation that the news goes their way. If the news doesn't go their way, the contract will most likely expire worthless and one will most likely have little premium left since option traders are limited by the amount of time till expiration.
When one plays their state's lottery, tickets that are bought are also defined by time. In options, trading  calls or puts for a particular expiry leading up to a big event, Most of Traders understand Options as Limited Risk game as risk involved is capital you have speculated but THINK if you looses the bet your whole capital will vanish and by any business sense it does not make a good trade. There is nothing wrong with making speculative out of the money call or put bets in the option market, but investors/traders should avoid making casino style bets, unless they have the discretionary income to do so.
There are certain group of people...

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Trading Mistakes

01. Anger over a losing trade – Traders usually feel as if they are victims of the market. This is usually because they either 1) care too much about the trade and/or 2) have unrealistic expectations. They seek approval from the markets, something the markets cannot provide.
2. Trading too much - Traders that do this have some personal need to “conquer” the market. The sole motivation here is greed and about “getting even” with the market. It is impossible to get “even” with the market. Trading too much is also indicative of a lack of discipline and ignoring set rules. This is emotionally-driven.
3. Trading the wrong size – Traders ignore or don’t recognize the risk of each trade or do not understand money management. There is no personal responsibility here. Typically, aggressive position sizes are used, however if risk is not contained, then it could spiral out of control. Usually, this issue comes from traders wanting to make a huge killing. Maybe they do win, but the point is that a bad habit emerges if a trader repeats this behavior.
4. PMSing after the day is over – Traders are on a wild emotional roller coaster that is fueled by a plethora of emotions ranging throughout the spectrum. Focus is taken off of the process and is placed too heavily on the money. These people are very irritable akin to the symptoms of premenstrual syndrome (something I wouldn’t know about personally).
5. Using money you can’t afford to lose – Usually, a trader is pinning his/her last hopes to make money. Traders fear “losing” the “last best opportunity”. Self-discipline....

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Common Traits of Successful Traders

Learn to Lose Money to Make Money

Unfortunately, it is the sad reality that the majority of people reading this are not profitable traders. If I could single out the most common culprit for sabotaging your trading it would have to be not being able to take a loss. This is especially prevalent amongst new traders, but I’ve seen this single trading mistake cripple even more experienced traders. In fact, I’ve run across countless traders that are generally successful if not for a few outsized losses. The problem is that these outsized losses are what cripple your account and push you into the negative column. You will never be a successful trader, EVER, until you learn how to take a loss.

Discipline like Army 

Discipline is directly related to the bottom line of a trader’s account. The Professional Trader keeps a high focus on being disciplined and sticking to his system. He disciplines himself by constantly having the thought of making money and being positive at the end of the month in the forefront of his mind. This way he keeps himself from getting caught in the now emotional moment. He stays on the sidelines when the timing is wrong to enter a trade and always places stops while trading.

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Some traders who have lost money fall into paralysis from analysis.They develop a quaint notion that if they analyze more data, they’ll stop losing and become winners. You can recognize them by their beautiful charts and shelves crammed with stock reports. They will show you indicator signals in the middle of any chart, but when you ask them what they will do at the right edge, they only mumble because they do not trade.Analysts are paid to be right; traders are paid to be profitable. Those are two different goals, calling for different temperaments.

A Trader can become an Analyst but an Analyst can never become a trader.

Reliance Industries

Litmus Test for RIL near 763 which is 20 SMA,Close above it will open gates for 770, 800 levels. failure to cross this levels can lead to recent low of 717.

Buy above 764 Tgt...

 

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FII FnO Analysis for 4 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 04-Apr-12.

1. FII  bought  20014  Contracts of NF worth 541 cores OI also increasing  by 1464 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 32 points and OI has increased  by 1464 ,which basically means small quantity of longs were added  by FII.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5295 which is bullish sign.Also closed above 5325 which is 50 SMA,closing above 20 and 50 SMA make it bullish in short term.
4. Nifty today's close had an important significance let me share the same with below 2 charts ...


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Technical Calls:Gail,LIC Housing and IRB Infra

Gail

GAIL is on verge of breakout above 382.6

Buy above 382.6 Tgt 385,389

Sell below 377 Tgt 373,369 and 365

LIC Housing

LIC housing is on verge of breakout with bullish momentum intact.

Buy above 268 Tgt...

 

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FII FnO Analysis for 2 April trade in Nifty Future

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 01-Apr-12.


1. FII  bought  7189  Contracts of NF worth 192 cores OI also decreasing  by 10065 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 17 points and OI has reduced  by 100065 ,which basically means Long liquidation by FII. They are using the rise to liquidate there longs.
3. Nifty  closed above 20SMA@5291 which is bullish sign.Next important level comes to 5319 which is 50 SMA,Nifty just closed tad below this level.

4. I have been talking about the range of 5221-5370 NF based on Rollover data, look at today's high on NF it is at 5272 and it reacted decisively with 40 points quick fall.Litmus test failed at 5370. Fresh longs should be taken above 5372 NF only.

5. Nifty April   OI has decreased   by 14  lakh .Total OI stands at 1.90  cores  contracts.Long Liquidation was seen in NF. Also note that OI in April series is lowest when compared to Feb 2.3 cores and March 2.53 cores. Now Bulls are having upperhand with close above 20 SMA..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 1 trading day of FY 12-13

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 30-Mar-12.

1. FII  bought 19301  Contracts of NF worth 500 cores OI also increasing  by 24743  contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 101 points and OI has reduced  by 24743  contracts means  institutions have covered   shorts in NF .As they have been carrying shorts for March Series.
3. Nifty  on the last day of march closed above 20SMA@5292 which is bullish sign.Next important level comes to 5313 which is 50 SMA.

4.As discussed in Weekly analysis 5130 comes as channel bottom and Nifty obliged us making a low of 5135 and major bounceback of 168 points. Now look at a crooseover of 5313-5320 range above its a quick move of 40 points will happen and below it we will again go till 5268-5246 levels on NS.

5. Nifty April   OI has decreased   by...

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Technical Calls: Tata Steel,ICICI Bank and Central Bank

Trading is a journey of self-discovery. If you enjoy learning, if you are not scared of risk, if the rewards appeal to you, if you are preparedto put in the work, you have a great project ahead of you. You will work hard and enjoy the discoveries you’ll make along the way.

Tata Steel

Laxman Rekha at 475.8. Trade above this Tata Steel will show a fast  move, as it shows a breakout.

Buy above 476 Tgt..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Starting 02 April

From 01 April 2012 marks the fresh start of  Financial Year 2012-13. Wishing all Readers a profitable Financial year 2012-13.Nifty closed the Last quarter with a gain of 10.38%. Venezuela Stock Market closed with a whopping gain of 70%
I did a study how Nifty trades in the first week of a new Financial Year.Results were quiet fascinating and are summarized as below

Time Period:31-Mar-00 to 31-Mar-11

Max Gain :11.28% 31-mar-2009

Max Loss :1.67%   30-Mar-2001

Average Gain :2.4%

So Out of 11 Years only 1 year was negative rest all ended in positive.So Hoping for a green candle for coming week.

Nifty Hourly Chart

We have a gap in Hourly chart from 5178-5203. Bulls were able to protect the gap on Friday opening and took nifty for a 100 points gain as soon it moved above..

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