FII Derivative Data Analysis for 1 August Trade in Nifty Future

The trouble with most people is that they think with their hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds... Will Durant
Hope is the buzzword on financial markets around the world ? Hope of more QE,Hope of action from ECB ,Hope of RBI cutting rates but as a traders

HOPE is  your worst enemy.Think about how many trades you did on Hope and ended up being the biggest loosing trade.

July series ended on a firm note with a closing above the scared level of 5217 which will keep the momentum going on for bulls. FED and ECB meeting are lined up tomorrow and there course of action will decide the further trend of global market.
India is facing the worst power crisis of decade with almost 600 million people in dark because of failure of Norther,Easter and Western grids and our Power Minster SUSHIL KUMAR SHIND got promoted to Home Minster today,Such is the irony of Indian Politics.

 P CHIDAMBARAM will be the new FM, lets see how market reacts to this development.

1. FII  bought 8246 Contracts of NF ,worth 187 cores  with net OI increasing by 10292 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 23 points and OI...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis before the June RBI Policy

Ahead of its interest rate decision tomorrow, the RBI paints a picture of a stagflationary economy in its quarterly report. "The near-term outlook on inflation continues to be marked by a number of upside risks, despite the significant slowdown in growth ... fiscal and monetary space to stimulate ... remain limited." Inflation worries are likely to keep the RBI on hold for now.
We have RBI meet,US Fed Meet and ECB meet all lined up from 31July and 1 August. Equities have been rallying and EU markets are up by 8% after Darchi comment "Will do enough to save Euro",He has promised now its time to deliver any variation from the same will be a Selling opportunity. US markets have closed above 13000 on more QE 3. Be the part of rally till it lasts or stay on sidelines but do not go against the trend.
1. FII  bought 2419 Contracts of NF ,but the net figure..

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Technical Calls:Maruti,REC and TCS

Maruti

1074-79 range is the base of the stock any dips towards it should be bought. Today it opened down touched 1079 where gap also exists filled it and now is heading higher.

Buy above 1095 Tgt 1104,1111 and 1123

REC Limited

Rec limited is near its trendline resistance.break of same will lead to move towards congestion zone of 190-193

Buy above 188 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 30 July

August Series started with a big bang gap up opening and reacted sharply from 5149 as discussed in Weekly analysis importance of 5150 level.After a dull July series,August series promises to be a volatile and breakout or breakdown month. Mass psychology which plays an important role in Stock market is on bearish end as we have all sort of troubles deficit monsoon, high interest rate,rising inflation, and bad global outlook on growth. With so many problems one tends to think from bearish angle but always remember market has it mind of own and do not take anything for granted. Stick with your discipline and trading system to make money consistently.


1. FII  bought 60376 Contracts of NF ,worth 1450  cores with net OI increasing by 12160 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 42 points and OI has increased by 12160 contracts  means FII had taken longs in NF. Rollover data gives the range of NF as 5210-5070 NF

3. NS closed at 5099 which is below both..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 30 July

July expiry closed with a loss of 106 points to June and August series started with a bang with Nifty making a high of 5149 but selling off in later half of session.Macro concerns regarding health of Indian economy and huge sell off in mid caps following margin funding problem lead to deterioration of sentiments. Mid caps were butchered in last 2 sessions as most of them were down between 20-45% in 2 sessions. Rumors of Ketan Parik and Kolkatta Brokers going bankrupt were talk of D-Street but no materialist evidence was present.
Investors can use these opportunity to buy mid caps like Amar Remedies, Parshvanath in pyramid format.
The week ahead would be news-heavy with the RBI and the Federal Reserve holding their monetary policy meetings next week. Progress of monsoon, PMI numbers and earnings announcements will be other drivers in the short-term.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts are trading in a parrell channel with an aberration  last...

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How to become a profitable trader

Trading is a profession which requires a person to be disciplined, control over his emotion, risk management.

90% of Traders fails in this profession only 10% excel.

So what makes trading so difficult?
I have compiled few rules which you should adhere with and read it daily when you had a bad day.
These are some of the trading rules which are universally valid for stock/commodity trading.
Take a print out and nail it on your trading desk.
Never risk more than 10% of your...


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FII Derivative Data Analysis for July 2012 Expiry

July series will come to an end and will be an non event series, We predicted this on 11 June  ( Click on Link) based on the OI and historical data.
June series Nifty expired at 5149 and now we are trading at 5110 so in 19 trading session we have moved just 39 points in this freaky global scenario ;)
So where do we expire now Is the millon dollar question, let's try to find the answers of the same

1. FII  sold 18909 Contracts of NF ,worth 447  cores with net OI decreasing by 4673 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 22 points and...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 25 July trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 10171 Contracts of NF ,worth 254 cores with net OI increasing by 11221 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 14 points and OI has increased by 11221 contracts  means FII haa a neutral stance and very busy in rolling over there positions to August series. FII futures data is irrespective of rollover.

3. NS made a low of 5103 and..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 24 July trade in Nifty Future

Europe is back again on limelight now focus shifts on SPAIN,

• Spanish Stock Market Plummets By 12% In Two Days
• Short selling ban in Italy and Spain,Last time they did in 2011 and result was market kept on falling. When will the regulators learn ?
• Government reform wheels have started turning with Petrol price hiked by 70 paisa from tonight, Market will be excited if we see a Diesel price hike also.

1. FII  sold 20599 Contracts of NF ,worth 488 cores with net OI increasing by 15465 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 96 ,,,

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 23 July

The Grind down continues, Nifty made a high of 5258 and low of 5169 a range of just 89 points from the whole week. Trading sideways market is the most difficult part as a trader, As every time it moves near the upper or lower band many traders buy or sell in anticipation of breakout and when it do not materialize they are either stopped out or they start taking aggressive stance on market and ultimately loosing money. So let the market decide where it wants to go and once clear trend emerges jump in and make your profit.
Always remember Market is a deep ocean and we as trader want few drops in that ocean in term of profit to be a successful and profitable trader.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts have taken support at the bottom of channel at ..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 20 July trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  bought 28000 Contracts of NF ,worth 654 cores with net OI increasing by 33352 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 33 points and OI has increased by 33352 contracts  means FII have created fresh longs in NF as we have been discussing from past 2 days. Let me add here some readers asked me

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 19 July trade in Nifty Future

The unending list of super hit melodies which u have left will always make us remember u RIP The ultimate superstar Rajesh Khanna
Yesterday we has discussed going by History Nifty will not fill the gap from 5189-5150 and can give us the whipsaw move to trap shorts. As always Market move in a direction which gives maximum pain to traders and again History repeat.
NF bounced from 5177 which was just 4 point short of our Trend Deciding level 5181 and pullback to make the high of 5237. Bulls were winner EOD as they were able to close Nifty above 5200.
1. FII  bought 10409 Contracts of NF ,worth 272 cores with net OI decreasing by 5195 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 25 points and OI has decreased by 5195 contracts  means FII have covered  shorts near...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 18 July trade in Nifty Future

Another Fry day with Nifty stuck in range, Opened Gap up consolidated in 20 points range and finally gave up all gains and filled the gap and closed for 4 days in a row in red. Tomorrow being 5 day which is a Fibo number,hence probability of a green closing have increased.This move in Nifty very well go by our analysis stating July being a month of consolidation.Markets will take further cues from Ben Bernanke testimony today.
1. FII  bought 5623  Contracts of NF ,worth 129 cores with net OI increasing by 17453 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 8..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 17 July trade in Nifty Future

Inflation cooled  to 7.25% which is welcome news for market as it raises the Hope for RBI to cut rates.From Macro perceptive  Monsoon is current overhang for the market, any shortfall in rains can again see the food prices spiraling ahead and putting weight on inflation.
1. FII  bought 1258  Contracts of NF ,worth 56.85 cores with net OI increasing by 3550 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 33 points and OI has increased by 3550 contracts  means FII have covered partial shorts near 5204 NF. Also the Average price for NF comes at crazy number 9038 which suggests some longs were also carried over by FII

3. NS made a low of 5190 which is just 1 point short of 5189 which we have been discussing from many days,not breaking 5189 suggests bulls want to push market higher. We also took a..

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 15 July

As per Last Week Analysis Nifty made low of 5217 and High of 5349 as we discussed, Nifty has been grinding in a range of 5217-5249 for whole week, this is what happens when we have month of consolidation. Nifty Futures intraday players are having difficult time as nothing is happening,grinding in 20-30 points range. In such market best is to stay on sidelines or trade with less quantity with small expectation.
Infosys again disappointed the street and eventually Nifty broke down 5260,but do remember we are in consolidation phase and do not be surprised with move above 5300 next week. One positive takeaway from last week was  June Trade Deficit at 10.3 Billion Dollars lowest in months Immediate Impact was Rupee closed at 55.27.We are seeing an improvement in Macro data with IIP also coming at 2.2%. Monday we have inflation data which is expected to be bad around 7% ,Any surprise on downside can see the Nifty moving above 5300.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts have taken support at the bottom of channel at 5217 as shown in above chart. Hourly charts are over...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 13 July trade in Nifty Future

Infy did it again continued with its  trend of below expectation results and market butchered the stock with a cut of 9%, We already discussed the technical on Infy and TCS which again proved the supremacy of technical analysis.TCS came with a good set of numbers and tomorrow expect fireworks in the counter 1295 is an important level to watch out for.
Always remember Price has everything in it, trick is how you analyses it and plan your trade. FII,DII,Operators and informed traders everyone will buy and sell transaction and same will be reflected in Price, Price is SUPREME

1. FII  sold 17499 Contracts of NF ,worth 415 cores with net OI increasing by 15913 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 71  points and OI has increased by 15913 contracts  means FII initiated  fresh  shorts in Index futures.

3. As we had discussion traders who have..

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Infosys and TCS technical set up before Q1 results

IT twins TCS and Infosys will be declaring there Q1 results today, A close look at charts reveal the out performance by TCS and Under performance by INfy after the declaration of Q4 Results.
TCS has gaped up from 1074-1117 and is still holding the run away gap. After this formed a range from 1195-1295 and has been trading the same.

Technically TCS look ripe for correction as it has formed a Bearish Harami Candlestick pattern,

Sell below 1250 Tgt...

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 12July trade in Nifty Future

We have 4 important event tomorrow :
1. Infosys results before market opens (Infosys Technically explained)
2. IIP data at 11 AM
3. WPI data expected to be highest in recent times
4. TCS Results after market closes around 6 PM
So its an eventful day and as Infy and TCS has combined weightage of 12% so it will definatley affect Nifty and set the tone for IT sector.

1. FII  sold 6084 Contracts of NF ,worth 150 cores with net OI increasing by 2746 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 35  points and OI has increased by 2746 contracts  means FII have  booked profits in longs and initiated  fresh  shorts in Index futures.

3. Nifty made a fresh July high today at 5349 and sentiment is overtly bullish with calls of 5500-5600 on cards. If one see the Daily charts closely 5342-5378 is the range of supply,Risk traders can take fresh shorts in this range with Sl of 5380.  This is what we dis...

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Techncial Set up:Bank Nifty,Infosys and Reliance Capital

Risk = The Distance to your Stop loss. Which means you have to have carefully studied where is the best place to put your stop. Its the exact %loss that will occur if your stop is hit. If you hold positions overnight, this distance is less defined, since large gaps will widen stops, I guess put/call option hedges would be better than stops for large positions.
 Reward – The Average Distance to your Profit exit or ‘Stop’. There must be a specific exit point, otherwise you ‘profit’ may disappear as you hang on to the trade i.e. you have to actually take the profit when you get it, just as you would a loss – I learned that the hard way, countless times I had profits ( my entries are quite good), but then kept the trade rather than taking the profit, only end up with a loss…somehow that is more emotionally difficult than a straight loss.
Therefore if you don’t use stops, or don’t take profits when they occur, your risk/reward is undefinable. I now refuse any trade I can’t define the risk/reward.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has broken its trendline joining the tops of Nov 10 and Feb 12. Now the price confirmation is required to confirm the breakout with price staying above 10680 for this week.

Buy above 10767 Tgt..

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FII Derivative Data Analysis for 11July trade in Nifty Future

1. FII  sold 4964 Contracts of NF ,worth 207  cores with net OI increasing by 19468 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was up by 70  points and OI has increased by 19468 contracts  means FII have initiated  fresh  longs in Index futures.

3. Nifty is still Buy on Dip till 5260 is not broken on closing basis .Nifty made a fresh July high today at 5349 and sentiment is overtly bullish with calls of 5500-5600 on cards. If one see the Daily charts closely 5342-5378 is the range of supply,Risk traders can take fresh shorts in this range with Sl of 5380.

4. In Weekly analysis i gave the importance of..

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Technical Setup:RIL,SBI and REC

The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—a unique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.

Reliance Industries

RIL has formed multiple tops at 743 odd levels which is its 100 DMA, Support is coming at downward facing trendline at 726. Range trade of 742-726 is in play.

Buy above 735 Tgt 738,742

Sell below 733...

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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Week Beginning 9 July

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly Charts has been in consolidation mode for the whole week and keeping its head above the scared levels of 5285, Nifty twice made a low of 5288 and 5289 but unable to break below 5285 shows bulls are active till 50 Hourly SMA is not broken. Breakdown will come below 5260 which is hourly trendline.

Nifty Gaps

Nifty has the only 1 gap remaining above 5000 which is 5150-5189. Break of 5217 will only provide opportunity to fill the gap.

Nifty Daily Chart

On Daily charts nifty is facing resistance at 5333 and facing support at rising trendline at....

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