Trading Mistake:Lack of Patience

Traders always are working on a double edged sword; Small mistake committed by them can turn out to be large loss for their trading account. Trading is a high risk profession and you should always be on your toes else one move by market against you, can wipe out your whole trading account. A trader should be disciplined, have a sound risk and money management and should be very strong in trading psychology. Lets discuss one more quality a trader should have, “Patience”
I have seen many traders losing money and busting their trading account due to Lack of Patience. Patience is required while entering the trade, holding the trade and lastly in exiting the trade. You try to hurry in any one of the 3 scenarios you either end u losing money or exiting well before the trade shows its true colors. It’s a well known facts markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.
Big money is always ..

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Maruti,Bharti Airtel and JSPL Technical Analysis

April Series came to an end and Stock Calls given on site have made profit of 1.28 Lakhs. For the reference of readers the performance sheet for the Month of April/March Expiry has been updated, can be accessed from http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/.Will update May Series calls performance today evening.

Maruti

Maruti has been on magnificent run as weaker yen will bring down rae material cost and will effect company's bottom line. Stock has risen from 1258 to 1693  and is now approaching the long term trendline. Unable to cross 1693 pullback is expected till 1600

Buy above 1694..

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Bank Nifty Weekly Chart Analysis

Bank Nifty will be on Radar as 3 may we have our RBI policy. We have 3 great triggers. First is fall in inflation. Second is fall in commodities prices and third a positive MOM IIP data. Market has definitely factored in 25 Bps rate cut and so if we have a 25 bps cut on the policy day than we can see a definite sell of but if the governor surprises us with a 50 Bps along with a CRR cut than only we may see a rally above 12755 and towards a new high else we can see a pullback till 12000.

Bank Nifty Hourly

Bank Nifty has been trading above 34 EMA from Apr 10 and gave a spectacular rally but on last Friday BN closed below 34 EMA @12540, Does it spell trouble..

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Will RBI deliver on 3 May? Nifty Weekly Analysis

Next week 3 may we have our RBI policy, Expectation are high for rate cuts as Bank Nifty is up 1100 points in 8 trading days. If RBI disappoints the market we can see a corrective decline in market. As Nifty and Bank Nifty both have rallied before the event The market will take some cognizance of what has happened and just take a breather.Market has definitely factored in 25 Bps rate cut and so if we have a 25 bps cut on the policy day than we can see a definite sell of but if the governor surprises us with a 50 Bps along with a CRR cut than only we may see a rally above 5950.
The stock market remains closed on ..

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Understanding your trading brain

Many readers have asked me the following question:
“what we are watching and what we are doing is totally opposite ?”
"What we would like to act and trade  and we do something reverse than that as soon as we see the trading terminal! "
"I do plan ,than trade but anyhow it goes unfollowed unknowingly !"
This is a common phenomenon in the loss making traders and let me elaborate what causes this problem and how can one avoid it.
Most traders spend a large amount of time fighting themselves on the path to trading success, often without fully realising what it is they are fighting against.
So what are we fighting..

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Worlds Richest TA Traders

2012 Forbes – #82 James Simons – 11.0 Billion
Sometimes referred to as the “Quant King” he is also a maths guru and a very smart cookie who studied maths at MIT and got a Ph.D. from UC, Berkeley.  Simons deciphered codes for U.S. department of defence during Vietnam and went on to found Renaissance Technologies in 1982 and at the start of 2013 was managing over 15 billion.
He Co-authored Cherns-Simons

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Intraday Trading Levels:Gold, Silver and Crude Oil

Commodities are back on radar with  gold, silver, and oil prices rising between 2.5-5% biggest jump in 5 months period.Lets analyses how trader can trade Gold,Silver and Crude today.

Gold Daily Chart

As per daily charts gold  is nearing its 20 DMA@1486 , High made in morning session is 1485. Intraday players can use the below mentioned levels.

Buy above 1486 Tgt..

Follow on Facebook during Market Hours: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brameshs-Tech/140117182685863

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HDFC,Reliance and Tata Motors technical analysis

April Series came to an end and Stock Calls given on site have made profit of 1.28 Lakhs. For the reference of readers the performance sheet for the Month of April/March Expiry has been updated, can be accessed from http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/.

HDFC

HDFC  has seen a fast rise today during last 30 mins of trade, Stock made the high of 885 and pulled back. Above 885 stock gives a fresh breakout, unable to cross can see the pullback till 825 odd levels.

Buy above 864 Tgt

  Follow on Facebook during Market Hours: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Brameshs-Tech/140117182685863

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Nifty Future Technical Analysis for May F&O Series

• FIIs bought 125227 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 3716 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 102440 contracts.Worlds Best Technical Analyst

NS closed at 6 weeks High 5916 after  making high of 5925 and low of 5854, Nifty Opened Gap up but did gave a dip till 5854 near to our buying level of 5856 and gave a sharp rally in last 30 min of trade.  As discussed yesterday expiry will be volatile due to Inside Day Candel formation hope traders were able to monetize on volatility.  Next all important ..

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FII F&O Analysis ahead of April future options expiry

Volatile April Expiry is coming to an end, It raised Hope of Nifty going down as much as 5200 at one point of time and now we are trading well above 5800, Volatility at its best :) . sentiments have turned from extreme pessimism to excessive optimism  , that the beauty of trading. Lets discuss how to trade Nifty on Expiry day.
FIIs bought 32150 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 930 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 8594 contracts.FII have rollovered their


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Nifty close above 5800, FII FnO Analysis

• FIIs bought 40793 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 1218 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 24977 contracts. FII continued with  short covering today, and formed longs in May series as only 2 days are left for expiry for April Series..Difference between Amateur & Professional Trader

Nifty continued with its rally, and closed above 50 DMA @5767 and heading towards the next all important resistnace zone of 5861-5872. Nifty has closed above 5800 after 22 sessions. Nifty also ..

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Forex Trading USD INR Weekly Technical Analysis

USD INR 4 Hour Chart

USD INR 4 hour chart is trading in a downtrending channel,with support coming at 55.58. Opened with a gap down today,looking at charts it seems the opening gap will be filled.

 USD INR Daily Chart

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DAY TRADING INTRADAY CALLS

HUL

HUL is trading near a crucial resistance of 100 DMA, which stock is unable to cross from past 3.5 months, Unable to cross this time pullback can be seen in extremely short term.

Buy above 491 Tgt...

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Nifty closes above 50 DMA, FII FnO Analysis

• FIIs bought 27134 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 784 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 5034 contracts. FII continued with  short covering today, but still no sign of fresh longs.Accepting Loss in trading

Nifty continued with its rally, and closed above 50 DMA @5770 which it was unable to cross from past 5 times. Falling trendling resistance as discussed in weekly analysis needs...


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Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for April Expiry

As expected last week, Indian market gained on sharp decline in commodity prices, esp. that of crude oil, which fell less than $100 a barrel (Brent). Higher than expected decline in inflation for the month of March, 2013 to 5.96 percent also aided higher rate cut expectations in the market, which led to sharp rally in rate sensitive stocks, esp. Banking, as per our Trend Changer level we were able to capture 800 points in Bank Nifty and 200 Points in Nifty Futures.
Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5545 achieved  all weekly targets on upside.

 Nifty 4 Hourly Chart

Nifty 4 Hourly charts has broken the  Fibo Regression Channels ...

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Are you trading on Luck or trading Skills ?

Some describe trading as purely based on "LUCK" , "Tukka marna" as we call it in Hindi, but from my perceptive trading is all about "Skills" . Skills take time to develop. Take an Example of Engineer, To get an Engineering degree a student has to study for 6 years ( 2 Years for entrance preparation and 4 Years as formal engineering degree). Doctor has to study much more. So Skills take some time to develop.
But when it come to trading, Traders want to earn money instantly. "Get Rich Quickly", As per my experience Stock market is best place to loose money instantly but most difficult place to make money. So let me discussion difference between Luck and Skills.

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Gold and Crude 4 Hour Chart

Gold 4 Hour Chart

As per 4 Hour  charts gold took support at 50% retracement at 1325 and bounced back. Gold is unable to cross the 34 Hour EMA@1424 and has pulled back again. Till 1427 is not broken gold will remain as Sell on rise structure.Intraday players can use the below mentioned levels.

Buy above 1427 Tgt ...

Technical Indicators: Force Index Introduction

Introduction

The Force Index is developed by Trading for a Living fame author Alexander Elder , is an oscillator that measures the force of bulls behind particular market rallies and of bears behind every market correction.According to Elder, there are three essential elements to a Financial Instrument price movement: direction of  market move ie Up or down, extent of the move and volume.Force index is one of the best indicators for combining both price and volume.
The three key components of the force index are:

1. Direction of Price Change
2. Extent of Price..

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FII F&O Data Analysis for 18 April trade in NF and BN Future

• FIIs bought 14142Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 407 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 8148 contracts. FII continued with  short covering today, but still no sign of fresh longs.Accepting Loss in trading

Nifty After rallying for three consecutive trading sessions, the Nifty took a breather on Wednesday with a volatile moves.Nifty opened gap up  unable to hold on to its gains and closed off the day’s high, with formation of DOJI candlestick pattern. Nifty Bulls unable to closed above 5700 shows lot of supply coming from higher range, but holding 200 DMA @ 5659 is..

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Accepting Loss in trading

One of the fundamental principals of trading stocks, or anything for that matter, is; you never play with money you cannot afford to lose. You should not be trading money needed for car payments, rent, food, diapers etc. The reason for this is, no matter how sound a system or piece of advice may sound, trades often go against you. Trading money you can afford to lose means that you have money to live, some money saved for a rainy day, and some for trading.
Now, by trading money you can afford to, or are willing to lose means just that. Even a successful trader’s account may experience dips or losses at many points. In fact, being willing to lose, or admit loss is essential to trading.
What does this mean? Willing to lose in order to win? Think of it this way.SBIN has been going up every day so you think let me also enter the stock and make money like my friends are making.
You’ve bought 50 SBI ..

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Accepting Loss in trading

One of the fundamental principals of trading stocks, or anything for that matter, is; you never play with money you cannot afford to lose. You should not be trading money needed for car payments, rent, food, diapers etc. The reason for this is, no matter how sound a system or piece of advice may sound, trades often go against you. Trading money you can afford to lose means that you have money to live, some money saved for a rainy day, and some for trading.
Now, by trading money you can afford to, or are willing to lose means just that. Even a successful trader’s account may experience dips or losses at many points. In fact, being willing to lose, or admit loss is essential to trading.
What does this mean? Willing to lose in order to win? Think of it this way.SBIN has been going up every day so you think let me also enter the stock and make money like my friends are making.
You’ve bought 50 SBI ..

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Nifty closes above 200 DMA, FII FnO Analysis

• FIIs bought 44902 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 1265 cores with net Open Interest decreasing by 44262 contracts. FII did huge short covering today, but still no sign of fresh longs. Why Commodity Traders Lose Money

Fall in commodity prices has come as a Boon to Indian market,  Nifty made Highest gains since Sep 2012  and 100 points rally in 6 months.Nifty also filled the Breakaway gap which it formed on 04 April.Nifty closed above ..

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Gold Technical charts after worst Sell Off in 30 years

15 April is the largest one day decline from the previous day's close @ -9.6%. Volume is already north of 530,000

There have been three rounds of liquidations.

1.  Asian liquidation
2. European liquidation
3. US liquidation phase . You are witnessing an historical selling climax folks.
4. Another trigger for selling is CME Hikes Gold, Silver Margins By 18.5%

RSI shows gold to be the most oversold in 31 years...

Gold pushes down to the 50%..

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Technical Stock Trading Picks:Titan,Tata Steel and RIL

Relaince

RIL will be declaring its results today post market hours. Stock made high of 955 when last quarter results were declared and kept falling down from that day till 760. Stock is stuck in its trading range of 805-765. Trader should short at higher end and long at lower end with strict sl.

Buy above 800 Tgt..

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Nifty Futures forecast for 16 April

• FIIs bought 3970 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 111 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 21622 contracts. FII have started profit booking in shorts, but still no sign of fresh longs. Why Commodity Traders Lose Money

Nifty  opened with a gap down  today, made a low of 5500 Nifty quickly went up to  fill the gap as per gap theory  till 5593 and than came down trend  is still Sell on Rise till  5595 is not crossed.The drama was lying in commodity market where gold fell down 200$ in 4 trading days. We did the  commodity analysis and all target got achieved on GOLD and Silver did ..


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Gold and Silver Weekly Trading guide

As discussed on 10 Apr Gold technical analysis Gold is trading near the upper resistance zone 1588-1590$. Unable to break the 1590$ pullback till 1560-62 should be expected which it did the same day. Today after retail sales unexpectedly dropped commodities are having sell off. Also as per Gold technical analysis before crucial Jobs data we clearly mentioned 1526 as strong support and break of same lead to panic in Gold and lead the biggest one day decline in recent history  Lets analyses whats in store for coming week

Gold Daily

As per daily charts gold has broken the ...

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JP Associate,Reliance and SBI technical analysis

SBI

SBI has taken resistance at falling trendline and was unable to cross the supply zone of 2094-2097.

Buy above 2097 Tgt..

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Trading using Stochastic

Last Week we discussed  Technical Indicator – Stochastics An Introduction Lets discuss today how to Trade using Stochastic

The Stochastic Oscillator can be used to generate Buy and Sell Signals as follows
1. Extreme Values (Overbought Oversold)
2. Stochastic Crossovers
3. Stochastic Divergences
Extreme Values (Overbought Oversold)
The stochastic oscillator is plotted ..

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How to avoid Revenge Trading

Infosys did it again, 22% down Many traders lost a fortune few made a good money. Traders who have lost money due to big gap down in stock will not make Emotional trades to recover lost money asap and the account is destroyed fast. They will involve themselves in revenge trading, as they are in fight with the "Mighty Market" to recover their losses and end result will be trader will be thrown out of  market. When it comes to crazy trading, it is a serious problem. You do not even realize that you are doing this. So, you need to use the right technique to get out of this state.
Let me discuss fee thoughts which will help in avoiding revenge trading:
1. Take a ..

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Nifty Future Trading Strategy for 12 April

• FIIs bought 9588 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 267 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 11284 contracts. FII have started profit booking in shorts, but still no sign of fresh longs. What makes a great trader?

Nifty  formed another  a Pin Bar candlestick formation  in today's trading session, which is a strong reversal candlestick. Nifty opened with a gap today, as whole world market are rising S&P 500 at record high, so rising tide raises leaking boats ...


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Infosys,Yes Bank and Tata Steel technical analysis

Infosys

Infosys will be declaring its results tommrow. Stock has broken its 2 months trading range of 170 points. Unable to move and close above 2856 will keep stock under pressure.

Buy above 2837 Tgt ..

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Nifty Futures Outlook

• FIIs sold 7800 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 218 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 23002 contracts. FII have started profit booking in shorts, but still no sign of fresh longs. Greatest trades of all time

Nifty after 5 days of decline, recovered today forming a Pin Bar candlestick formation which is a strong reversal candlestick. Nifty bounced back strongly from our weekly support level of 5474 as discussed in weekly analysis and closed above our Trend Deciding Level of 5525. Positive divergence have started showing effect, but no change is trend till..

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PNB,PFC and Pantaloon Technical Analysis

PNB

PNB has broken its demand zone with volumes in today's trading session,stock took support at medium term falling trendline breaking the low of 687 will make the stock correct to next demand zone of 665-660 range.

Sell below 687 Tgt..

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Nifty Future Trading as per FII FnO Data Anlysis

• FIIs sold 588 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 15 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 13750 contracts. FII added few shorts  in Index Futures as net OI rose with price. How to Take Emotion Out of Trading

Nifty closed below 5500, 7 month low. The fall we are seeing in April series make me reminiscent of May-2012. Yesterday we discussed NR7 formation and in advanced cautioned readers of impending volatility, Nifty obliged us with an 128 points range :). Nifty opened gap up but initial move as per our Gap Theory suggested of gap filling and with use of..

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Nse Nifty Futures Technical Analysis

• FIIs sold 11683 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 325 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 12269 contracts. FII added more  shorts  in Index Futures as net OI rose with price. How to manage Commodities Trading Account .

Nifty has fallen 218 points in matter 5  trading days is going in sideways mode in past 2 days. As discussed in Weekly Analysis, 5535 is an important support as its both 233 DMA and double bottom also. Today Nifty made low of 5537 and closed above it. But closing was the lowest closing in past 6 months which is not good sign for Bulls. Today we have again formed an ..

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Stock Trading Levels:RIL,ICICI and SBI

Reliance

Reliance Industries has taken support its demand area of 760 range and as shown a pullback on Fridays session. Stock is forming a big descending triangle with trigger point closing below 760,On Upside 782 leads to breakout with minimum target of 800.

Buy above 782.5..

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis

Indian benchmark indices that have been precariously poised over the last two weeks began downward journey with persistent selling by FII's. The Nifty has closed below the 5,600 level and the Sensex below 18,600, both below their 200 DMA ,Nifty ended  down by 2.3% or 129 points  WoW basis.Investors who bought shares with the hope of the Sensex and the Nifty rising to a new high soon appear to be capitulating now.
Last week we gave Trend Deciding level as 5703 achieved  all 3 weekly targets on downside.

 Nifty 4 Hourly Chart

Nifty 4 Hourly charts as per Fibo Regression Channels has ...

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Forex Trading USD INR Technical Analysis

USD INR 4 hour chart is trading in a perfect symmetrical triangle , volatility has almost died signalling the advent of big move in round the corner. This is what we discussed 2 days ago 
USD INR is trading at 1 month low and very near to breakout on weekly charts, signalling another big upmove is round the corner, Lets discuss in details.

USD INR 4 Hour Chart

USD INR 4 hour chart broke the...

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Stock Trading:Tata Motors,Infy and Century Textile

Tata Motors

Tata Motors has been under bear pressure as soon it broke 280, stock has been trading below its 200 DMA for 3 days now, Stock has taken support at previous gap of 254 .254-55 range has been demand zone for telco stock has pulled back sharply from this zone.

Buy above 259 Tgt ...

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Carnage on D-Street, FII FnO Analysis for 5 April Trade in Nifty and Bank Nifty Future

• FIIs sold 35017 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 985 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 28883 contracts. FII added more  shorts  in Index Futures as net OI rose with price. How to manage Commodities Trading Account .

Nifty has fallen 189 points in matter of 2 days biggest decline in 14 months, Nifty opened gap down of 32 points  near 200 DMA@5637 and there after just kept on sliding down closed near the lows of the day. 33 Index stocks out of 50 are trading below 200 DMA, what was more concerning was today's fall was led by IT stocks which were the perfect hideout for..

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How to manage Commodities Trading Account

Commodities mainly gold and silver has seen a viscous fall in last 2 days, Buy on Dips Theory have suddenly vanished and many traders are having huge MTM after getting stuck with longs at higher levels. Today Article we will discuss how can a trader effectively manage a Commodity trading account.

During our childhood we all heard of Turtle and Rabbit story where Rabbit a fast runner got of to an unsustainable quick pace and does some silly thing along the way and gets defeated by slow paced Turtle. So what we can learn from the Story, Most of traders i have interacted with trade in commodities  because they are volatile,move quickly  and quick money can be made in matter of days. As Human we always think about rosy scenarios, what if the trade goes against and instead of making "Huge" money you loose a big amount. Well in case of most of traders its always other way round ie. Loosing Huge Sum of Money.

Commodities can move..

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Gold and Silver technical analysis

Gold and other commodities showed intense selling yesterday when Fed reserve member gave hint of Fed bond buying program can wind up if US keeps on improving. Gold is near a crucial 2 year support of $1526 and Silver near 26$, break of which can intensify technical selling. Lets analyse the technical chart of both Gold and Silver.

Gold

Gold 4 Hour chart with Fibo regression channels,is shown Gold broken the important channel support of 1550 and made a low of 1541 as discussed last night in facebook post. Trend is still ...

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Stock Trading:M&M,Tech M and DLF

For the reference of readers the performance sheet for the Month of April/March Expiry has been updated, can be accessed from http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/ .

• Calculation are based on trading with 1 lot of Stock Futures
• Rs 100 is deducted as Brokerage and Taxes

M&M

M&M share is near crucial support of 200 DMA @841. Stock has also broken its long term trendline and rises are getting sold into as seen in todays trading price action.

Buy above 849.5 Tgt..

 

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Nifty Daily Technical, FII F&O Analysis for 04 April

• FIIs sold 25165 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 722 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 38697 contracts. FII booked profit in long and went short  in Index Futures as net OI rose with price. Benefits of Making a Trading Plan

Nifty after opening gap down today, went into consolidation  with negative bias  not able to show recovery during afternoon session and fell sharply by around 100 points.  NS closed at 5673 after  making high of 5744 and low of 5650. We have discussed Nifty range as 5650-5750 2 days before as  per option data , market obliged us. Nifty is currently forming a..

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Nifty forecast for 3 April

• FIIs bought 4802 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 138 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 9150 contracts. FII after long time went long in Index Futures as net OI rose with price. How to Trade New Trading Account

Nifty continued with pullback which started after Nifty touched its 200 DMA on March 28. NS closed at 5748 after  making high of 5754 and low of 5687. Nifty as soon it crossed 5722 short covering and fresh buying pushed the Index Higher. As per  Weekly Analysis we discussed trend deciding level as 5703, and Nifty finally gave us the profit and covering the loss ..

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Intraday, Swing Calls:DLF, Bajaj Auto and Cairn

For the reference of readers i have made the performance sheet for the Month of March Expiry, can be accessed from http://tradingsystemperformance.blogspot.in/ .

• Calculation are based on trading with 1 lot of Stock Futures
• Rs 100 is deducted as Brokerage and Taxes

DLF

DLF share we analyzed on 25 March stating bottom should be made near 227-225 odd range, Stock rallied 25 march unable to sustain higher levels again revisited the low of 227.9 formed double bottom and also took support at fibonnaci channels and rallied as expected came in today.Above 254 rally can further continue till 261-64 range.

Buy above 254.5 Tgt ...

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Nifty Trading Levels as per FnO Analysis

• FIIs sold 14600 Contracts of Index Future (NSE Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures combined),worth 417 cores with net Open Interest increasing by 6960 contracts. Risk Management Rule for Traders

Nifty kick started the financial year on a positive note managing to close above the 5700 mark. NS closed at 5704 after  making high of 5721 and low of 5676 Nifty opened gaped up and quickly fell down to fill the gap. As per  Weekly Analysis we discussed trend deciding level as 5703, and Nifty kept swinging and closed at this level.Traders got whipsawed,..

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Technical Pick: Reliance,ITC and JSW Steel

Reliance

Reliance share has broken its medium term trendline and stock gave waterfall decline 823 to 764 in 3 trading sessions. Stock has come near its demand zone of 764 and bounced back sharply in last trading session.Stock is also trading below its 200 DMA which gives bearish indication for short term.

Sell below 771 Tgt..

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