Weekly Report -Nifty Technical Research

Last Week we gave Chopad level of 6790, Nifty did 1 target on Downside . Next week is expiry week, Traders do not Expiry will happen on Wednesday as Thursday is a Holiday. Lets analyze how to trade Nifty for next 3 trading sessions.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Nifty Hourly charts has closed above its 50 HDMA, also trading in a up trending channel ,  6790 will play an important role in coming week, closing above it new highs are on cards, unable to close above it market will...

Continue Reading

How nifty would react after election results

Money and power collide every five years at the intersection of Indian Stock Market and New Delhi, as India votes for its 15 Lok Sabha, So much is at stake: Indian foreign policy, India GDP growth, market friendly reforms could all undergo radical changes if Modiji wins.
The outcome of the election will also impact the stock market.Some forecast a bull market if a NDA wins lead by Modiji, while other predict that a UPA led by Rahul Gandhi  means stocks will decline.
A savvy trader might see an opportunity to put these theories to the test, based upon who they believe will become Prime Minister of the Great Nation India, If this trader bets on the right theory and the right winner, he or she could position himself or herself to make a lot of cash.
Now as we do not have crystal ball to predict, but as a technical analyst I firmly belive past price action gives an idea what can happen in future, let us see how market behaved in past before/after election result so as to understand market behavior and get an inkling what can happen in 2014.

1996

1996 was a Hung Assembly as Both BJP and Congress did not got majority, BJP got 161 and INC got 141. As BJP won highest seat A B Vajpayee took the initiative to form government, but the government lasted for only 13 days and Janata Dal leader Deve Gowda formed a United Front coalition government on June 1. His government lasted 18 months.


Nifty reaction with Swing High and Low is shown in below

Continue Reading

Nifty Options-What happens on Expiration day?

Many traders will indulge in Option trading especially on Expiry Day to make some quick buck as sometimes Rs 1 Options can jump to Rs 20-30 in matter of time.
During my trading Seminar , general question which most of participants have is

Why do options trade at lesser than theoretical value on the expiry day ?

I have seen trader taking position in Options that trades less them their theoretical value, thinking price will correct End of day and they will make profits but in reality end up making losses Many traders every expiry do not  sell their ITM options and letting it expire(especially which are very close to strike price) or else take trades/strategies assuming that discounted price of option will correct before the end of the expiry day.
Let me explain them with few elaborative examples:
1. Nifty Futures  is trading at 7750 and today is the day of expiry. At around

Continue Reading

Traders should avoid these sinful mistakes

There are things that we do as traders that set us back in our journey to success and lose us money. There are other things that traders do that just destroy themselves. Many of the following things are done daily by the 90% of traders that lose money in the market consistently.If we want to be a longer term winner trading the markets we have to take these lessons to heart and over come our natural instincts by doing the opposite.

• Instead of cutting a loss the trader holds it stressing over it for the rest of the day or a week. This destroys the trader’s mental capital and inflicts completely unnecessary emotional pain. The first loss it the best loss.

A trader that trades their opinion instead of the price action has a lower success rate than someone who just trades price action. The vast majority of

Continue Reading

FII FnO data Analysis for 17 April

• FII's sold 5559 contract of Index Futures worth 197 cores (16.6  K longs were added  and 11.1 k shorts were added for  Index Future) with net OI increasing by 27.7 K contracts. So today's FII's have started entering longs in Index Futures.

Nifty is entering the demand zone, with hourly charts entering oversold so if 6650-6642 is held we can see a decent bounceback till 6710,6750. During an uptrend market might correct for 2-3 session giving a trend reversal signal but can bounceback equally sharply, Weekly closing tomorrow Bulls will like to close nifty above


Continue Reading