What would happen in case of Grexit?
In order
to “help” Greece, since 2010, we’ve seen fiscal transfers and foreign
intervention into its domestic economic policies. Greece’s debt to GDP
ratio is now around 180% to GDP, while a lot of the bailout cash has
merely served to bail out banks, as Open Europe already warned in 2012.
A
number of policy makers now wants to try something new: a Greek exit
from the Eurozone. One of them is Christian von Stetten, a Member of
Germany’s Parliament and of Angela Merkel's CDU. He states what a
majority of Germans believe should happen: "The experiment with the
Greeks in the eurozone, who are unwilling to implement reforms, has
failed and must be ended". He adds that he's in favour of providing
"many billions" in support so Greece can make the transition onto its
own currency.
Hereunder I explore what would happen if Greece were to leave the Eurozone, through a legal fudge.
1. Default
If
Greece wouldn’t have already defaulted before it would introduce a new
currency, Grexit would make it virtually certain that the country would
default. It’s not wise to take out a considerable loan in a foreign
currency, but that’s what Greece has done since 2001, when it entered
the Eurozone.
If Greece would introduce a new currency, which
then likely would lose value against the euro, it would still need to
pay back its debt in euro, which woud appreciate in value as compared to
the new Drachma, making this task even harder.
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